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georgejohns
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|  | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #240 on Feb 5, 2009, 4:59pm » | ![[Quote]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/quote.gif) ![[Modify]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/modify.gif) ![[Delete]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/delete.gif) |
EC
"I think you will find it a d**n sight harder to produce winning VDW selections over jumps than on the flat".
If that were true (and I have no reason to suppose it is), it would merely underline that I am doing the sensible thing concentrating largely on the Flat.
Reasons, not reason.
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #241 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:04pm » | |
I prefer the Flat, partly because my selections hardly ever fall or fail to finish.
..................................................................
I had 3 in the tipping challenge today in the 3.50 at Taunton all well fancied Fell /Pulled Up/ Pulled Up.
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #242 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:09pm » | |
Walter
You rarely get that at Wolverhampton, York, or even Brighton with its adverse camber.
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #243 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:19pm » | |
George
I gave you one reason why it's harder...and a good reason...on the flat the races you are supposed to analyse have horses with a 2/3 year span..pretty recent..over the jumps you get a Hardy eustace type of horse...they stay around longer and tend to deterioriate for longer
if you don't know the differences between analysing flat and NH...then you ain't done much racing analysis
using NH examples to future predict flat races is flawed to f***
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #244 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:22pm » | |
the old falling one
horses fall 5% of the time over jumps
horses rarely fall on the flat - but.....there are other problems...more targets for them to aim at..causes horses not to always need the win..prep races are more prevalent...more fiddling on the flat
so you might have a 5% of a chance of falling..what % chance on the flat have that a horse is actually "off"
I don't buy it...both codes have issues...thats why the 80% claim is bollox
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #245 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:28pm » | |
EC
It is not just falling, its unseating, refusing, being brought down, or pulling up often after a jumping error.
I don't use Van der Wheil's NH examples to predict future Flat races. I use what I believe to be the way Van der Wheil put his ideas into practice on both NH and Flat to predict current races, mainly Flat ones.
Walter
Your post led me to check my main database, which currently has details of about 3,000 handicaps in which 26,825 horses ran. Of them, just 73 failed to complete.
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #246 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:39pm » | |
Feb 5, 2009, 5:28pm, georgejohns wrote:EC
It is not just falling, its unseating, refusing, being brought down, or pulling up often after a jumping error.
I don't use Van der Wheil's NH examples to predict future Flat races. I use what I believe to be the way Van der Wheil put his ideas into practice on both NH and Flat to predict current races, mainly Flat ones.
Walter
Your post led me to check my main database, which currently has details of about 3,000 handicaps in which 26,825 horses ran. Of them, just 73 failed to complete.
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George
the fact that VDW treated jumps and flat the same tells you he never operated in real time...it's flawed...and an obvious flaw
it's the biggest clue you have that studying his bogus examples is wasting your valueble time
you would be better served developing a method using some of his ideas...and actually having a bet some time
and ...work on your confidence...without that the whole thing is pointless anyway
I'll ask you one question...since last October...when have posted up one CLEAR<CONFIDENT pick based on all this studying you have done??
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #247 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:46pm » | |
EC
I haven't yet.
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #248 on Feb 5, 2009, 5:58pm » | |
that should concern you George tbh
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #249 on Feb 5, 2009, 7:14pm » | |
EC
It doesn't. If and when I know I can more or less replicate Van der Wheil's results, I'll post selections with confidence. Until then I'm in checking mode, and certainly do not want to display unwarranted confidence and make myself look as incompetent as .... (you can fill in the poster's name as well as I could, but let's be charitable!).
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #250 on Feb 5, 2009, 7:30pm » | |
Feb 5, 2009, 4:24pm, georgejohns wrote:Arkle
I may have misunderstood your earlier post - as far as I know the consistency figure is the aggregate of the placings in the last three [completed] races. The highest aggregate for a main method selection is 16 (The Old Fellow), though as Garston says there are some higher ones for some of Van der Wheil's selections found by other means. The aggregate for Prominent King is 8 (4/2/2). (The 5 in the Prominent King letter for that horse is a probables rating, not a consistency aggregate.)
If I've misunderstood what you are asking and you can clarify it, I'll have another shot at answering. |
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GEORGE
It's my fault for not wording my post properly. George may i ask again please. From the horses put forward by vdw and using your probables rating that you have found , what was the highest probable rating recorded.
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #251 on Feb 5, 2009, 7:48pm » | |
No problem George
I have to keep asking these questions, I have an enquiring/nosey mind
I'll be glad when this weather sorts itself out mind you 
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johnd
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #252 on Feb 5, 2009, 9:02pm » | |
Feb 5, 2009, 7:14pm, georgejohns wrote:EC
It doesn't. If and when I know I can more or less replicate Van der Wheil's results, I'll post selections with confidence. Until then I'm in checking mode, and certainly do not want to display unwarranted confidence and make myself look as incompetent as .... (you can fill in the poster's name as well as I could, but let's be charitable!).
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GJ
Apologies if you are losing money backing my selections
One day, you'll be a big boy and have some of your own! 
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #253 on Feb 5, 2009, 9:57pm » | |
Johnd
In general, the only way I'd back your selections would be to lay them on Betfair.
Arkle
6.
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #254 on Feb 5, 2009, 10:58pm » | |
GEORGE
Thank you
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johnd
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #255 on Feb 6, 2009, 1:09am » | |
Feb 5, 2009, 9:57pm, georgejohns wrote:Johnd
In general, the only way I'd back your selections would be to lay them on Betfair.
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Sweetness
Even on Betfair, they won't lay you after the event. 
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mtoto
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #256 on Feb 6, 2009, 1:48am » | |
Arkle 6.
George,
Can I ask did that relate to Philodantes or Ekbalco? If neither who?
Be Lucky
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #257 on Feb 6, 2009, 7:32am » | |
Mtoto
There were only three consistent horses in the Philodantes race, so the probables device did not apply. It did apply with the Ekbalco race, and he did indeed score 6.
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #258 on Feb 6, 2009, 8:32am » | |
Personally, I think George is doing the right thing. The more planning that goes into an venture, the more likelihood of a successful outcome.
"Think things out and be prepared to spend considerable time about it before venturing out on a new track".
Who said that?
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garstonf
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #259 on Feb 6, 2009, 11:42am » | |
"Think things out and be prepared to spend considerable time about it before venturing out on a new track".
Who said that?
Would it have been the designer of Great Leighs.
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #260 on Feb 6, 2009, 3:07pm » | |
Feb 6, 2009, 11:42am, garstonf wrote:| "Would it have been the designer of Great Leighs. |
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mtoto
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #261 on Feb 6, 2009, 6:21pm » | |
There were only three consistent horses in the Philodantes race, so the probables device did not apply.
George,
Why do you think VDW showed a number against Monksfield as he wasn't even a consistent horse? Does your method/idea also give M a 16?
Can I also ask about why you think there is a yes/no rating in there when I think it was you that seemed to be saying the whole thing is numerical?
Be Lucky
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #262 on Feb 6, 2009, 8:06pm » | |
Mtoto
If I am right about the probables, then from Van der Wheil's perspective 16 is the right number for Monksfield.
One of the two methods of rating, in my view, is whether or not a horse is a form horse. Prominent King and Mr Kildare were level on that (yes) and Beacon Light (no) well out of it. The data required for assessing whether a horse is a form horse is numerical, but the decision, on the numbers, is yes or no.
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grundy
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #263 on Feb 6, 2009, 8:41pm » | |
hi gerogejohns,
i get monksfield figure as 15... am i far from the real figures..
thanks
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #264 on Feb 6, 2009, 9:28pm » | |
Grundy
Clearly not far, numerically speaking, given you've 15 and Van der Wheil gave 16, but in this case I think it is a question of being right or wrong.
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mtoto
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #265 on Feb 6, 2009, 9:28pm » | |
Prominent King and Mr Kildare were level on that (yes)
George,
I don't agree, but if that is correct are you saying PK only just had the edge on the other rating over MK?
For what it's worth (nothing I suspect) the horse PK has joint with and had the edge over was Monksfield. If the probables are only arrived at from the consistent horses why would M have been included in that list? Ok, he was in the forecast from the Mail, but not the Life. Why use the Mail forecast in this instance? I don't think the exercise and explanation would have made sense using the Life's forecast.
Be Lucky
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #266 on Feb 6, 2009, 9:45pm » | |
Mtoto
"but if that is correct are you saying PK only just had the edge on the other rating over MK?"
Yes.
As regards Monksfield, don't forget that Van der Wheil said in the letter that he was demonstrating the power of two factors, one being position in the betting forecast. Not all horses in the first five (non handicaps) or six (handicaps) of the forecast are consistent horses.
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Bold Gait
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #267 on Feb 7, 2009, 1:53am » | |
VDW wrote
"Using two methods of rating all five horses, I found that the three starred horses came out best. Both methods showed Beacon Light well out of it and his last race had been a hard one against Sea Pigeon so I was left with Prominent King and Mr Kildare".
The first sentence says using two methods of rating, the three starred horses came out best - surely since Beacon Light was starred then the two methods had it as one of the more likely?
The second sentence says both methods showed Beacon Light well out of it. A contradiction.
Or a cunning old (young?) fox!
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #268 on Feb 7, 2009, 8:58am » | |
Bold Gait
Why a contradiction? The paragraph surely means that, taking the two together, Prominent King and Mr Kildare came out 1st and, narrowly, 2nd, Beacon Light some way behind in 3rd, with the other two still further behind in 4th and 5th places. On that reading, "the three starred horses came out best" (of the five), and "Beacon Light [was] well out of it" (compared with the other two starred horses).
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Bold Gait
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #269 on Feb 7, 2009, 10:45am » | |
Yes, you must be right George.
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