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ec
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|  | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #150 on Feb 2, 2009, 9:13pm » | ![[Quote]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/quote.gif) ![[Modify]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/modify.gif) ![[Delete]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/delete.gif) |
Feb 2, 2009, 8:34pm, georgejohns wrote:EC
Yes, if I reach the conclusion that my understanding of the method works to the level Van der Wheil claimed, I'll certainly post a series of selections.
But even if it does work, I then post some selections, and the level of success continues, all it will prove is that I've found an interpretation that works. I can't see any way of fully satisfying myself, let alone anyone else, that the method I'm using is exactly the same as Van der Wheil's. For example, as both Johnd and Mtoto have pointed out, among the various factors to which Van der Wheil said one should have regard when assessing form is pace. Yet having studied all the examples from this angle I cannot see that it was, generally speaking, a relevant factor in the judgements Van der Wheil reached. So either it was, and I have thus far failed to see how, or it wasn't and to that extent the relevant paragraph is misleading. |
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George
no one can ever know how he worked, you don't need to, the evidence shows he didn't work pre race, just post race
so if you make it pay you have actually achieved more than VDW did
I don't know why you worry so much about it..if you show a profit then you have achieved a lot
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #151 on Feb 2, 2009, 9:16pm » | |
Feb 2, 2009, 9:12pm, Walter Pidgeon wrote:
Fair point WP.
2 y.o.'s that have achieved xyz time figure?
"go back to the beginning" I had thought could mean a horses 2 y.o. form...
Have you hit the nail? 
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #152 on Feb 2, 2009, 9:31pm » | |
Guest wrote :
VDW said Pegwell Bay had the best form and the reason as to why this was so is held in the Mackeson itself. *It's staring us in the face* and when you spot it you will come to realise what a ingenius road VDW had taken compared to the majority of form students.
...........................................................................
Any ideas?.
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #153 on Feb 2, 2009, 9:41pm » | |
anyone care to put up lto speed and class, best speed and class of 3 most cosistent of the mackeson
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #154 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:02pm » | |
wattie looking at the mackeson and what guest says may vdw correlated money won by weight carried and was pegwell bay the better handicaped horse,seem to do eveything else by class
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #155 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:10pm » | |
EC
I've made racing pay for some years, but far from spectacularly. The real draw of Van der Wheil's work for me is his 80% claim, because if true that would pay spectacularly. While against the achievement of others, myself most certainly included, it is such a high claim as to make it unlikely to be true, on the evidence to date I am not yet prepared to say it can't be achieved (or, more accurately, that after giving it my best shot I can't achieve it).
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #156 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:15pm » | |
Ahm no sure what ye mean les?.
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #157 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:22pm » | |
Ah remember askin Guest back when this was posted and it must be a sensitive subject as his reply though pretty extensive was still a bit cryptic for the layman.
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #158 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:25pm » | |
ability rating divided by pounds carried? to give a diffrent order of handicap,you know yourself horses can be harshly treated for winning poor races
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #159 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:37pm » | |
Ahm no sure les ah think it may be to do wi the highest class handicaps they had won in the past and weight carried therin compared to the weight carried in the race today - under the days race conditions.
Mackeson 2m 4f on decent ground.
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #160 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:46pm » | |
Jim Thorpe had won 12 races up to the Mackeson including 2 wins at 2m 4f. Pegwell Bay had won 6 races with 4 coming at 2m 4f the latter 2 of which were in handicaps class 78 at Newbury with 11-10 and class 57 Newbury with 11-2.
Jim Thorpe had won 3 handicaps all at 2m coming in class 76 at Cheltenham with 10-0 over hurdles, class 77 at Wetherby with 11-7 again over hurdles and on his last start at wetherby with 12-1 in a chase class 29. He had run at 2m on all 3 latest runs and had run at 2m 4f 7 times winning twice class 66 and 16 both chases.
On the day Jim Thorpe carried 11-10 and Pegwell Bay 11-2. The race was class 221.
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #161 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:55pm » | |
According to Guests figs :Mackeson 2m 4f
Pegwell Bay ( 2m 4f ) Highest Class 78 Weight 11-10
Jim Thorpe ( 2 miler ) Highest Class 77 Weight 11-07
In Mackeson (PB) receives 8lbs from (JT).
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #162 on Feb 2, 2009, 10:59pm » | |
That`s if Guests figs are accurate mind ah widnae know?.
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #163 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:02pm » | |
best at the distance and conditions
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #164 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:17pm » | |
It would be interestin tae see if it worked with Roushayd in the Old Newton Cup les ?.
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #165 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:21pm » | |
Feb 2, 2009, 10:10pm, georgejohns wrote:EC
I've made racing pay for some years, but far from spectacularly. The real draw of Van der Wheil's work for me is his 80% claim, |
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you aren't on your own George, I remember when posting on TRF...there was only me and Dave Jay that didn't make it pay...apparently 99.9% of people that post on there all make it pay...which is incredible when Betafir state that 99% of people lose...TRF is a very winner enriched forum I wthink.
re 80%
anyone can claim that..especially after the race...in fact..I can do better..after the race has been run I myself have acheived 100% success rate for 35 years
the 80% claim ...unless every horse was 1/4 or a person backed 3 or 4 in a race...even then..you will still struggle over a period of time.
anyone that thinks someone is getting 80% with 3/1-4/1 single selection shots over a period of say 10 years..is clearly deluded...horse racing has way too many variables that automatically make it impossible to achieve those levels
The best I've ever seen on messageboards has never got near 80%..they don't need to..it's a pointless %...anyone backing horses has little interest in quoting % figures as without profit margins it's pointless..I don't undertstand the obsession with it...just because VDW said it?
i'm just glad he didn't say he splodged 4 foot turds out..or I'm sure some would be making it their life work to equal it
i'll look forward to the selections George..I'll start a thread as well once this snow goes away
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #166 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:27pm » | |
i,ll have a read tomorrow wattie am on holiday so head down,always thought roushyad was about where it was placed ie in the ability rankings the books gave you overload sometimes
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #167 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:32pm » | |
You would need the form books for that kind of data les no unless some helpful biddy puts up the figs.
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #168 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:33pm » | |
Walter
Jim Thorpe had won a class 98 chase on his penultimate run before the 1988 Mackeson.
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #169 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:34pm » | |
Cheers Garst what was the weight & dist please? and was it a handicap?.
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #170 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:40pm » | |
11.10, 16f., non handicap.
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #171 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:44pm » | |
Magic Georgie - not the race conditions required for the Mackeson.
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #172 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:46pm » | |
ec ,four foot turds have ye seen ma lines on a saturday
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #173 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:46pm » | |
Is that what Guest meant by it`s staring you in the face?.
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #174 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:50pm » | |
a see says the blind man
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ec
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #175 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:52pm » | |
Feb 2, 2009, 11:46pm, les wrote:| ec ,four foot turds have ye seen ma lines on a saturday |
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I knew if anyone was capable of this it would be you Les 
are they consistent though? 
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les
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #176 on Feb 2, 2009, 11:58pm » | |
i cosistent as i can be ec g_d the consistecy,the consistency
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goodlife
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #177 on Feb 3, 2009, 12:01am » | |
Georgejohns wrote
EC
Yes, if I reach the conclusion that my understanding of the method works to the level Van der Wheil claimed, I'll certainly post a series of selections.
But even if it does work, I then post some selections, and the level of success continues, all it will prove is that I've found an interpretation that works. I can't see any way of fully satisfying myself, let alone anyone else, that the method I'm using is exactly the same as Van der Wheil's. For example, as both Johnd and Mtoto have pointed out, among the various factors to which Van der Wheil said one should have regard when assessing form is pace. Yet having studied all the examples from this angle I cannot see that it was, generally speaking, a relevant factor in the judgements Van der Wheil reached. So either it was, and I have thus far failed to see how, or it wasn't and to that extent the relevant paragraph is misleading.
Good evening to everyone and I see the debate is still ongoing. Regarding the above, the suggestion made by VDW in TGY – A Word About Evaluation From VDW - may be apposite.
“Regular readers will have noted that the ratings given by Split-Second for any particular race are based on best performance during present season. But I am going to suggest that if his figures are used in conjunction with the method I have previously given the figure representing the best – ever performance should be used to calculate a rating for any race involved.”
Four of the five horses selected by VDW in his article of March 28, 1981 (Kenlis was the exception) had recorded lifetime-best Split-Second figures in one of their last three runs.
GL
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johninbrasil
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #178 on Feb 3, 2009, 12:05am » | |
A lot of racehorses do not have a serious 2yo career.
Future stayers, slower developers, and late born may get an introduction at 2yo but their careers will only start at 3yo, and in many the high point will only come with maturity as a 4yo.
Most top handicappers will have virtually no form as 2yos. Indeed by definition they start on v low marks that catch everyone on the hop.
2 and 3yos that show good form get clobbered the instant they have a stab at Listed class or better, if they dont cut the grade at this level they have a terrible time getting back down to a viable mark to contest hcps.
This seems as good a place as any to share somrething that I have recently formed an opinion upon.
Whilst researching the origins of a horse's career I became mystified why a sizeable proportion of 2yos where pushed up into listed or better class whilst still juveniles. In the majority of cases this is an unsuccessful career move as no race of this class is won. The result for these unsuccessful horses is little short of disasterous as they tend to end up with no wins and a three figure mark. They usually only go on to win again at 4yo or older.
I could see no rational explanation for this career move and as some of the trainers I have the most respect for were 'guilty' of it, I was worried that I was missing something important.
I noticed that fillies were a significant presence in this group, but initialy the bloodstock angle looked unlikely as there was no shortage of geldings either. But when I noticed that many of the males came from young Dams I believe I can now make sense of it.
Many a horse is 'sacrificed' in attempt to valorize either its bloodstock, if a filly, or its dams bloodstock value, if it is a colt or gelding, by being at least placed in a black type race.
I am now of the opinion that a true career handicapper only starts at at least 3 years of age, and in the case of stayers only at 4yo.
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monster
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #179 on Feb 3, 2009, 12:18am » | |
Feb 2, 2009, 9:31pm, Walter Pidgeon wrote:Guest wrote :
VDW said Pegwell Bay had the best form and the reason as to why this was so is held in the Mackeson itself. *It's staring us in the face* and when you spot it you will come to realise what a ingenius road VDW had taken compared to the majority of form students.
...........................................................................
Any ideas?.
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Hi Walter
The clue that Guest gave, relates to what Lee suggested. VDW had carried out the same platform for the LTO race when Pegwell competed against Smart Tar. Going into that race Smart Tar had won a Class 146 and so Pegwell Bay had put in a good performance to beat Smart Tar as he had gone up in class to do so. Pegwell Bay had marked his card and VDW would watch to see how he was placed, which in this case was the Mackenson. 
Why did VDW not give Smart Tar an abiltity rating but still took the trouble to discuss his profile for the Mackenson.
"SMART TAR: Has a lot of ability and has run in a better class than most in
this race, but went under to Pegwell Bay last time out and there is nothing to
suggest a reversal. Would also benefit from softer ground. "
It is Smart Tar who holds the clue.
Good Luck
Monster
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