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boozer
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|  | What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Thread Started on Jan 27, 2009, 6:43pm » | ![[Quote]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/quote.gif) ![[Modify]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/modify.gif) ![[Delete]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/delete.gif) |
Any Ideas?
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #1 on Jan 27, 2009, 7:10pm » | |
Yes.
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boozer
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #2 on Jan 27, 2009, 7:11pm » | |
You Maybe Wrong 
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #3 on Jan 27, 2009, 7:23pm » | |
It has been known.
Seriously though, I do know what the second numerical picture is. And it is no secret. VDW explained it in detail in one of the booklets. If no one beats me to it, I'll hunt it out and give you the reference - probably tomorrow.
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downey
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #4 on Jan 27, 2009, 7:34pm » | |
Boozer
I have always thought it's the horses rise and fall of their last three runs, using prize money as a rating and how they performed. (Make Racing Pay) It would be nice to see other people's view.
Downey
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #5 on Jan 27, 2009, 7:55pm » | |
Please correct me if i am wrong.
First numerical picture is 3 most consistent from 5/6 in the betting forecast
Second numerical picture , from previous 2 runs mark horses that have finished 1st-2nd-3rd or 4th. Then mark horses with the 5 most recent runs. From the horses that qualify in both
sections,add there last 3 form figures together and mark the lowest 3
Both methods /numerical pictures can be used in conjunction with each other to isolate horses worth concerntrating on because these are areas alive with potential winners. This does not mean any of the isolated horses are going to win though , that is were the clever folk come into ther own.
On reflection to my opening sentence, i hope i am wrong, so that i can learn a bit more on how vdw worked
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johnd
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #6 on Jan 27, 2009, 9:01pm » | |
Boozer
It's the one in the Pegwell Bay example, as set out originally in the Make Racing Pay articles, and repeated in Betting The VDW Way.
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #7 on Jan 27, 2009, 11:29pm » | |
JOHND
What was that method again .Was it because Pegwell bay was the only horse from top 4 ability to also be in the 3 most consistent from the betting forecast.Please do'nt make me dig out the booklets because i can not think were they are right now, shameful i know.
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johnd
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #8 on Jan 28, 2009, 12:34am » | |
Arkle
Consistency and ability were part of the first numerical picture.
In the Pegwell Bay example, he set out each horse's last 3 runs in table form, including the class and distance (the 2nd numerical picture), and then evaluated them.
The evaluation was the same as prescribed in SIAO, and enlarged upon in Systematic Betting.
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Bold Gait
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #9 on Jan 28, 2009, 12:35am » | |
Boozer/Arkle re the second numerical picture
When you have found this, then it is not the sort of information that you would post on a forum.
It is best found when looking at why Ahoy and Alwuhush were seemingly inconsistent horses and yet became bets and the others on the same list were not. (Obviously you will need the 1987/88 form books) 
For me this look in depth at the A list in Systematic betting opened up a lot of traits that I am still in the process of investigating.
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Bold Gait
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #10 on Jan 28, 2009, 12:49am » | |
My apologies
That is where I saw it in use more clearly along with other factors. It is of course evident in other VDW examples, including those of Roushayd and those from The Golden Years.
I found the best way to move on was to find where VDW wrote about horses in depth, look in the form books and then to read every phrase as I did so and it brought a lot of factors to the fore that I had not considered or overlooked before (For me it was the Ahoy horse list, but eveyone to their own  )
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #11 on Jan 28, 2009, 1:18am » | |
Jan 27, 2009, 7:23pm, Mark Eaton Administrator wrote:It has been known.
Seriously though, I do know what the second numerical picture is. And it is no secret. VDW explained it in detail in one of the booklets. If no one beats me to it, I'll hunt it out and give you the reference - probably tomorrow. |
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BC, Can not wait for your version.
Aint it exciting , rock on Tommy
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #12 on Jan 28, 2009, 1:32am » | |
JOHND
Cheers , now you mention the last 3 races i seem to recall that i could never get my head around that one , thank you anyway, i will have to find the books now, R/Post only covers previous race before the Mackeson Gold Cup win
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #13 on Jan 28, 2009, 12:38pm » | |
Jan 28, 2009, 1:18am, Arkle55 wrote:
Jan 27, 2009, 7:23pm, Mark Eaton Administrator wrote:It has been known.
Seriously though, I do know what the second numerical picture is. And it is no secret. VDW explained it in detail in one of the booklets. If no one beats me to it, I'll hunt it out and give you the reference - probably tomorrow. |
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BC, Can not wait for your version.
Aint it exciting , rock on Tommy |
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Hi Arkle,
It isn't "my version"!!
Johnd beat me to it. See "Betting the VDW way" pages 10-14.
Having said that, on reading it through again, he says (top of page 12) "...it is usually only necessary to consider the last three runs in creating the first numerical picture".
I am assuming that he meant to write "second" here, as this new data suggestion is additional to the normal information that went before. I hadn't even spotted it until this morning.
What do you think Johnd? Had you spotted that?
BC
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chilled
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #14 on Jan 28, 2009, 1:03pm » | |
Jan 28, 2009, 12:49am, Bold Gait wrote:My apologies
That is where I saw it in use more clearly along with other factors. It is of course evident in other VDW examples, including those of Roushayd and those from The Golden Years.
I found the best way to move on was to find where VDW wrote about horses in depth, look in the form books and then to read every phrase as I did so and it brought a lot of factors to the fore that I had not considered or overlooked before (For me it was the Ahoy horse list, but eveyone to their own ) |
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Bold Gait
'The Ahoy horse list', do you mind me asking where this list is found?
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mtoto
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #15 on Jan 28, 2009, 4:44pm » | |
Consistency and ability were part of the first numerical picture.
JohnD,
Can I ask why you think ability is part of the first numerical picture? I read it as it being based purely on consistency. This is based on the position of the comma. the following is exactly as printed in Betting The VDW Way......... Prom the three most consistent ratings (first numerical picture), the three highest ability ratings are:
In saying that why isn't Warner for Leisure included in the three most consistent? Fair enough he isn't in the forecast, but neither is Bishops Yarn.
This for me begs the question how many numerical pictures are there? If George John's is correct that the probables are based on pure figures (before form is looked at in any detail). VDW shows the first picture quite clearly for me, so does this mean the second picture is the probables formula? As the next step shown (with no mention about the second picture) in BTVW includes 2/3 horses I can't see as probables, if my idea on the probables. formula is anywhere near correct.
Be Lucky
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mtoto
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #16 on Jan 28, 2009, 4:47pm » | |
'The Ahoy horse list', do you mind me asking where this list is found?
Bold Gait,
Ahoy is found in S Betting in the example of 2yr old horses to follow as 3yr olds.
Be Lucky
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #17 on Jan 28, 2009, 5:12pm » | |
I think the above post was for Chilled and not Bold Gait
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Arkle55
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #18 on Jan 28, 2009, 5:41pm » | |
If the last 3 runs is the 2nd numerical picture what is there to be identified.
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boozer
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #19 on Jan 28, 2009, 5:44pm » | |
Mtoto
If Downeys explanation is somwhere near which I think it is
Would that explain Beacon light ?
Heres VDW's Mention of the second numerical picture
It is no good stopping half way through the project or thinking a part fare takes you the full journey. A little was left for you to complete, but all relevant factors were there to set up a second 'numerical picture', providing you read what was said.
A couple of clues. The first from March, 1981 when a comprehensive explanation was given
....."To confirm what the figures say (numerical picture), it is necessary to study the form
of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of respective races, distances won or beaten by and, most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race." And from Winning Ways to Bet
....."You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the
same as the class of race in which they compete."
It would appear from the above that "the bit that was left to complete was" the second numerical picture/missing link
or am I wrong
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #20 on Jan 28, 2009, 5:51pm » | |
Jan 28, 2009, 5:44pm, boozer wrote:Mtoto
If Downeys explanation is somwhere near which I think it is
Would that explain Beacon light ?
Heres VDW's Mention of the second numerical picture
It is no good stopping half way through the project or thinking a part fare takes you the full journey. A little was left for you to complete, but all relevant factors were there to set up a second 'numerical picture', providing you read what was said.
A couple of clues. The first from March, 1981 when a comprehensive explanation was given
....."To confirm what the figures say (numerical picture), it is necessary to study the form
of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of respective races, distances won or beaten by and, most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race." And from Winning Ways to Bet
....."You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the
same as the class of race in which they compete."
It would appear from the above that "the bit that was left to complete was" the second numerical picture/missing link
or am I wrong |
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Ah, good. I'm glad you put that up. So the Pegwell Bay example in the reference I gave earlier does show the second numerical picture. I thought I was losing the plot. Blib, blab, bloo. 
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boozer
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #21 on Jan 28, 2009, 6:02pm » | |
BC
Does it only apply to the three probables as in
Many create the initial numerical picture and say they are stuck and don't know how to select from the three probables
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georgejohns
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #22 on Jan 28, 2009, 6:52pm » | |
Mtoto
For what it is worth, I don't think the issue of the number of numerical pictures is other than a matter of convenience. After all, Van der Wheil gave a numerical picture in the March 1981 article, and the first one in the Pegwell Bay article can be viewed as merely an extension of that, from which one could start assessing form, which one can't do from the numerical picture in the March 1981 article.
Having tried various ways of handling all this in an Excel format, I've opted for the very pedestrian one of having a worksheet for each aspect, avoiding the need for entering the same data twice by embedding formulas to copy relevant material from one sheet to the next. So I start with consistency on sheet 1; automatically carry forward the consistent horses into sheet 2 where I identify the probables; then automatically carry forward the probables to sheet 3 in order to identify those with form and thence the class/form horse; and finally automatically carry forward the class/form horse and its details into sheet 4 to assess its probability and decide whether it fits the bill as a bet.
Those more skilled with Excel than I am could probably arrange things so that all aspects were done in one worksheet rather than four, but in practice it doesn't seem to me to matter how the analysis details are laid out, provided one bears in mind one is essentially in an exercise in elimination which involves moving in stages from the field to the class/form horse, and then into the final stage of assessing the probability of the class/form horse winning.
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johnd
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #23 on Jan 28, 2009, 6:59pm » | |
Jan 28, 2009, 4:44pm, mtoto wrote:Consistency and ability were part of the first numerical picture.
JohnD,
Can I ask why you think ability is part of the first numerical picture? I read it as it being based purely on consistency. This is based on the position of the comma. the following is exactly as printed in Betting The VDW Way......... Prom the three most consistent ratings (first numerical picture), the three highest ability ratings are:
In saying that why isn't Warner for Leisure included in the three most consistent? Fair enough he isn't in the forecast, but neither is Bishops Yarn.
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Mtoto
The booklets are that poorly edited that I wouldn't question anything purely on the position of a punctuation mark.
VDW made it clear in his foreword** that there were 2 numerical pictures; the one he had "set out in some detail" in SIAO, and the second where he said "all the factors were there to set up a 2nd numerical picture" providing you read what was said (Unsurprisingly, the same expression he used when referring to exactly the same paragraph in a later epistle about the same 'missing link'.
Bishop's Yarn was amongst 3 most consistent with a '7', - Warner For Leisure with an '8' wasn't.
** For those who aren't aware, both chapters of 'The Myth Of The Missing Link' were originally produced as one article - not separately as in Betting The VDW Way.
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Mark Eaton Administrator
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #24 on Jan 28, 2009, 7:11pm » | |
Jan 28, 2009, 6:02pm, boozer wrote:BC
Does it only apply to the three probables as in
Many create the initial numerical picture and say they are stuck and don't know how to select from the three probables
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No.
It applies to all the runners.
Do you have "Betting the VDW way" Boozer?
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boozer
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #25 on Jan 28, 2009, 7:25pm » | |
I didnt think I had but yes BC I have it in E format
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mtoto
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #26 on Jan 28, 2009, 7:36pm » | |
If Downeys explanation is somwhere near which I think it is
Would that explain Beacon light ?
Boozer,
Downey's explanation works for BL, but there are selections it doesn't work for. Oh happy birthday but I do find it hard to believe you are only 61
*********
Bishop's Yarn was amongst 3 most consistent with a '7', - Warner For Leisure with an '8' wasn't.
JohnD,
I could be mistaken but my records show WFL with a c/r of 6
The booklets are that poorly edited that I wouldn't question anything purely on the position of a punctuation mark.
Fair enough, but it isn't only the punctuation mark there is also the brackets to consider.
It also puzzles me how PK scored in the 2nd picture if it is as shown using that example (Pegwell Bay)
Be Lucky
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chilled
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #27 on Jan 28, 2009, 7:54pm » | |
mtoto
I have WFL on 6, would it be be because of the distance? I notice only the * consistent horses have the ability figure. I always thought you rated the whole field.
It's a while since I have read and used the method. 
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chilled
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #28 on Jan 28, 2009, 7:58pm » | |
Re the Second Numerical Figure : What figure is the one where he rated The Old Fellows race??
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boozer
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| | Re: What Is the Second Numerical picture
« Reply #29 on Jan 28, 2009, 8:07pm » | |
Mtoto
Its these inconsistancies that have led people to beleive that this is a complicated method
well that and others who try to make a simple process like adding up form figures for example into some sort of your not adding them up right science
It is a simple method of narrowing the field and then finding the winner from the remaining probables if of course there is anything that emerges that is worthy of a bet (A winner in the race)
He said so himself An elementry method
However if as seems to be the case he wasnt all that he claimed to be
Perhaps he wasnt as honest as he should have been with some of his examples
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