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Apr 2, 2010, 8:38pm

mark eaton racing site. :: Main :: Van Der Wheil :: consistency

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Topic: consistency (Read 532 times)

johnd
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Re: consistency
« Reply #30 on Jan 29, 2009, 6:16pm »

Jan 29, 2009, 4:11pm, monster wrote:

Hi johnD

I think you have summed up quite nicely why Ascot is a testing course and Newbury is not.

Good Luck

Monster

Yes - in exactly the same way that Brighton, Bath, Warwick and Lingfield are. ::)

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johninbrasil
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Re: consistency
« Reply #31 on Jan 29, 2009, 6:17pm »

WP,

Councellor blindsided me both times. First time I wasn't convinced that he was placed to win and after that win I discounted him as not being 'due' anymore.

Another one that I know is going to win is Capricorn Run but I've been losing money on him since the summer. Everytime I see his name on the screen my blood pressure goes up!

To be honest the best ones are the unexposed ones going for their first win in a higher class as it seems easier to establish a career than it is to maintain it.

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: consistency
« Reply #32 on Jan 29, 2009, 6:38pm »

I have Capricorn Run down in the notebook now that he`s starting to race with the field John.His run lto in the Conditions race was a fair effort as he was giving weight away against higher rated horses.

25 Jan 2009
5:00 WOLVERHAMPTON (AW)
24Hr Telephone Betting @ William Hill 0800 44 40 40 Conditions Stakes(Class 2) (4yo+) (7f32y) 7f Standard
£12,462.00, £3,732.00, £1,866.00, £934.00, £466.00, £234.00
RESULTRATE RACE Show all comments in running Show all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED

1 2 Orchard Supreme SP 4/1
Titus Livius (FR) - Bogus Penny (IRE) (Pennekamp) 6 9-5 R Hannon
Dane O'Neill 97 83 99 —
Always prominent, challenged over 1f out, hard ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on

2 5 hd Councellor (FR) SP 9/2
Gilded Time (USA) - Sudden Storm Bird (USA) (Storm Bird) 7 9-0 t Stef Liddiard
Micky Fenton 92 77 93 —
Led, ridden and headed well inside final furlong, ran on

3 3 ½ Aeroplane SP 8/11F
Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Anita At Dawn (IRE) (Anita's Prince) 6 9-0 S A Callaghan
Jamie Spencer 103 76 92 —
Held up in rear, headway on inside well over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, not quicken near finish

4 8 2½ Capricorn Run (USA) SP 12/1
Elusive Quality (USA) - Cercida (USA) (Copelan) 6 9-5 A J McCabe
Pat Cosgrave 90 74 90 —
Held up in touch, ridden over 2f out, carried wide entering straight, edged left 1f out, one pace

5 7 ¾ Silver Wind SP 25/1
Ishiguru (USA) - My Bonus (Cyrano De Bergerac) 4 9-0 b P D Evans
James Doyle 78 67 83 —
Held up, headway on outside over 3f out, chased leader over 2f out until ran wide entering straight, ridden over 1f out, one pace

6 9 15 Fire Up The Band SP 80/1
Prince Sabo - Green Supreme (Primo Dominie) 10 9-0 A Berry
Slade O'Hara 57 27 43 —
Soon chasing leader, weakened over 2f out

7 1 16 Wotavadun (IRE) SP 250/1
King Of Kings (IRE) - Blush With Love (USA) (Mt. Livermore) 6 9-0 eb D Flood
Holly Hall 36 — —
Not clear run on inside and lost place soon after start, always behind, lost touch final 3f, tailed off

7 ran TIME 1m 28.25s (slow by 0.45s) Total SP 109%

He has been dropped another 2lbs in future races from 88 has an entry at Kempton on feb 4th.

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2009 Tipping Challenge Winner 11,449.71 pts profit.... 10 months played.

Walter Pidgeon
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Re: consistency
« Reply #33 on Jan 29, 2009, 7:04pm »

I had a notebook horse simiar to Capricorn Run in Trafalgar Square - was burnt once before i caught him at Lingfield on his first win.He was another who raced out with the washing for a right while until fin 2nd behind a Squib at Kempton.He is re-establishing himself as a decent handicapper now that he`s racing again - from the same yard as your winner yesterday.
I know it`s not easy catching the older horses at times and i like this idea of latching onto them as the handicapping career is forming early doors.

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monster
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Re: consistency
« Reply #34 on Jan 29, 2009, 7:10pm »

Jan 29, 2009, 6:16pm, johnd wrote:

Jan 29, 2009, 4:11pm, monster wrote:

Hi johnD

I think you have summed up quite nicely why Ascot is a testing course and Newbury is not.

Good Luck

Monster

Yes - in exactly the same way that Brighton, Bath, Warwick and Lingfield are. ::)

JohnD

again I wish you well if you think that Brighton, Bath, Warwick & Lingfield are the same test of Speed/Stamina as Ascots 12f

The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes is one of Europes main contests to measure the merits of top class horses from different generations and countries. The race provides a stringent test of a horses ability over the classic distance of 12f

Perhaps the past winners of the race will convice you that Ascots 12f needs an equal balance of speed/stamina.

Good Luck

Monster

« Last Edit: Jan 29, 2009, 7:23pm by monster »

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ec
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Re: consistency
« Reply #35 on Jan 29, 2009, 7:23pm »

Jan 29, 2009, 12:06am, monster wrote:

Hi EC

I am not sure what your point is regarding consistency linked to odds.

consistency and the actual chance a horse has are linked as in my Michael Johnson example

I find that when people put up very small samples to base their wagering on very limiting

you quote a few trainers there but the sample is so small as to b insignificant...horses generally..over a period of time do conform to what the odds suggest..it's a strong tool and in fact is why VDW suggested only looking at the first few in the betting...nothing genius about that...shorter priced horses win more than longer priced horses

my point really is that the whole VDW philosphy is based on a few "examples" of individual runs by horses taken from millions of horse races

are VDWers happy to base there whole gambling life on horses/examples that represent 0.00001% ..or however many decmail places we need to show a tiny fraction that 50 or 100 examples of horses that have run in the past.

the quoting on this thread of a paltry number of horses that somehow create a pattern that will shape how millions of horses will run in future is just naive to me.

do horses look back at the examples as well..and think..well Roushayd followed this pattern so I will??

if people believe that an extremely small sample of runs can win them money in future because other horses will show that exact same pattern...then I am amazed

the past examples are worthless because they were backfitted ..there were no pre race doubts creeping in...as was amply displayed on Gummy's board on the threads I and others started re races to look at...it was clear then that VDWers were umming and arring and no betting purely because future races and the pre race doubts were clearly present...whereas in you past backfitted world everything is snug and safe and all worked out in whatever pattern an individual WANTS to see there

I guarantee one thing...if future races are not discussed here then there will be 800 threads on here discussing pointless examples that have no use to man nor beast in 5 years time...and everyone reading them will be no further forward...because trying to fit patterns and rules to old races put up by soemone who picked em purely because they fitted his model at the time is a pointless exercise

think about it..someone writes a book outlining a few basics..picks 20 or 30 examples after they have been run and then leaves folks to try and fit patterns to em...only they as individuals believe that their particular view is the correct pattern...when in fact..there ain't no pattern and even if there were a pattern that ties so few winners together is hardly likely to be future predictive is it?

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ec
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Re: consistency
« Reply #36 on Jan 29, 2009, 7:31pm »

Monster

I think you are overplaying the the stiffness of Ascot v Newbury...yes I agree that a 12f race at both tracks would show Ascot as being slightly tougher to get...but as John said..we are not comparing same distances...that extra furlong or so at Newbury would make the test stiffer than theh 12f at Ascot

The standrad times at both tracks do show Ascot is harder to get in the straight..but on the round course there isn't eneough difference to make up for an extra 1f+ would tell on an animal

it's not an exact science comparing these I know.

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monster
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Re: consistency
« Reply #37 on Jan 29, 2009, 8:31pm »

Hi EC

Re your Reply No 35.

I have no problems with your comments and yes I use many different approaches. Those that know me from the Flatstats Forum will have not heard me discussing any pre race bets as being based on VDW. Mostly they have been from breeding, Conditioning or Class ratings.

As this was a VDW forum I thought it best to use examples from his work.

Good Luck

Monster

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