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Jan 17, 2011, 6:01pm

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Topic: Form and Class (Read 4 times)

BC
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Form and Class
« Thread Started on Jan 5, 2011, 12:32am »

This was posted by Chesham on UKBT 04/01/11:

VDW also may have read Robert Dowst whom was around well before VDW was First published.

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Robert Dowst on Form/Class*

speaking of form when quality is meant, is to run some risk of confusing a reader or student. Class is one thing; form another; and each factor should be rated independently in attempting to estimate the chances of a horse.*

If a horse is coming up to today's race off a win or close-up finish within a week or two, a handicapper will be sensible in accepting his present racing condition as satis¬factory.*

A good recent race is as effective a certification of good physical condition as anything can be. However, if the last race was an unusually hard effort, and the ani¬mal won or ran close by under a severe drive, then he may have staled off after that race and require slight' freshening rather than more racing to attain his edge.*

And if a long shipment from another circuit has inter¬vened between the last race and today's, the animal's con¬dition may have been dulled by the trip.*

Races other than winning efforts or tries close by may be accepted as good evidence of present condition. If a sprinter in his first start of the year or after a considerable layoff showed speed in the early stages and set pace or stayed with it only to fade in the stretch, the effort may be accepted as evidence that he has his speed and should improve today, unless he is a chronic quitter.

*The same is true of a route-horse which set or stayed with pace only to tire in the late stages after an absence from competition. Unless he is a confirmed quitter or tirer the effort may be relied on as having tightened him sufficiently for today's contest.*

When it is noted that a horse in a recent race closed fast in the stretch, that fact too may be accepted as good evidence of racing condition whether the race was a sprint /J or over a distance of ground.*

Ability to close in the late stages is the very best evidence that a horse is in shape, unless he is one of the type that never or rarely wins be- " cause he is so slow in the early stages that almost always he is too far back to make his late bid effective. If an animal's whole record shows that he possesses enough early foot to set or stay with the pace, then his ability to close with a rush in the stretch, recently demonstrated, is almost cer¬tain proof that he has come to hand, is on edge, and is ready for a, winning effort when suitably weighted and entered against his own class.*
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VDW mentions to observe what the horse does around the 2f marker, Robert Dowst seems to spell out what you should be looking for

I recently read an article on weighing racehorses and one trainer said that the further a horse has to travel in a horse box the more weight they lost. Most racehorses have an optimum weight that indicates their well being, so Robert Dowst was right-on the money when he mentions horses on a long shipment to another track.*

VDW did say his methods were based on research and he may have researched the work of Robert Dowst and put his own slant on things to suit UK racing.

Chesham

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BC
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Re: Form and Class
« Reply #1 on Jan 10, 2011, 5:12pm »

This was posted by GarstonF on UKBT 06/01/11:

Default Re: Van der Wheil

“VDW in it's entirety or parts of the VDW methodolgy either work for you in present day races or not. All the best to those that wan't to look at old races that VDW did not even mention.”

Chesham

Did not VDW say “those who select just parts, or fail to understand the concept as a whole, will not succeed.”
Surely, looking at races he did not mention is just as important as looking at races he did mention. All VDW races have the “three horses for consideration”. Is it not just as important to investigate why horses were not selected the same as why they were.
On a lighter note if VDW is 80 this month then he was about 6 or 7 when he started using his staking plan. Now don’t you wish we all went to a primary school in Holland.

Another book which VDW may or may not have read is Racing For Pleasure and Profit by Kenneth Stewart published in 1966. Here he uses terms like “good betting proposition” but this is just standard language in racing terms (especially once you reached the bigger school in Holland). In this book the Author keeps repeating his own formula called the FACTS.
“Fitness: F
Money is more often lost both by the public and by people connected with a horses; trainers, owners and hangers on, because the horse when it races is not properly fit – than in any other way. A very good horse not yet fit can be beaten by a moderate one.
Ability: A
A horse must possess the right sort of ability; the hardiness and courage to give of its best every time it is fit enough to do so.
Conditions: C
The underfoot conditions (the going), and the conditions of the race; the class, the distance, the draw and the likely pace at which the race will be run, affect form almost as much as fitness. Class and pace are closely linked, as we shall see.
Time/form: T
A horse’s best performance to date can be rated in terms of time and weight carried in past performances, and points to the horse or horses with the best chance in a race – all other things being equal. They do this better, of course, in non-handicap races or in races in which the handicapper has not yet been able to assess the ability of young horses.
Summary: S
It is necessary to summarize the abilities, recent form, best form, likely fitness and hardiness of the opposition, referring all the time to the conditions of the race. Some races then become betting races, others do not. No race is a betting race for us unless it contains one of our type of horse: the courageous horse.”

If the Summary is the hard work then it is quite similar to VDW’s formula.

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