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Apr 2, 2010, 8:03pm

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Arkle55
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #60 on Oct 7, 2009, 7:03pm »

Oct 7, 2009, 4:52pm, monster wrote:

Hi John

Its a no contest, your the biggest d*ck by far

Good Luck

Monster

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #61 on Oct 7, 2009, 7:16pm »

Cheers monster / jd
If nothing else at least this debate has left me in no doubt that there is still lots to learn.

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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #62 on Oct 7, 2009, 7:40pm »

For those who might want to compile Speed Figures that have no element of weight within them and are based on pure speed.

You could start off with the Racing Post Standard Times and going allowances. Later on you might want to produce your own standard times and going allowances Or use the RP Standard Times and work out your own going allowances instead.

Covert race times into MPH

Its easier to measure in MPH as you can use the exact distance in furlongs and yds and use the time taken to cover the distance and convert that to MPH

The following race was run 22/08/08

Ie using RP Standard Times & Lush Lashes race as an example

RP Standard Time 12f Newmarket 147.5 Seconds or 36.61MPH

Lush Lashes ran the distance in 37.22 MPH
In this example,take off the RP Going allowance.

Lush Lashes now has an Average speed 36.43MPH

2nd horse, Dar Re Mi was one & quarter lengths away Average speed 36.38mph

Compare both against the figure for standard 36.61mph etc for your speed rating

36.43/36.61 =0.995
36.38/36.61 = 0.993

It does not look much of a speed figure.

Try the following

0.995 X 100 Minus 90 X 10 =95
0.993 X 100 Minus 90 X 10 = 93

Lush Lashes 95
Dar Re Mi = 93

Remember that these are Numbers expressed as pure speed and not LBS etc.

Good Luck

Monster

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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #63 on Oct 7, 2009, 8:37pm »

Oct 7, 2009, 7:03pm, Arkle55 wrote:

Oct 7, 2009, 4:52pm, monster wrote:

Hi John

Its a no contest, your the biggest d*ck by far

Good Luck

Monster

Which illustrates perfectly why Monster called a poll. ::)

If nothing else at least this debate has left me in no doubt that there is still lots to learn.

I'd doubt that somehow, Walter.
Ratings are a guide, and those available in the Racing Post will serve most purposes. It's how VDW read form that's important, and there are plenty on here with much more to learn than you.

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ec
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #64 on Oct 7, 2009, 10:12pm »

The problem I had with putting a mark on the Irish Champion is that F&G is not a 10f horse so won't have run his best..and possibly MCM is not a 10f horse either

so you have two horses not best suited to that race to work from..both may have run below their very best in that race

but the main thing with putting a rating on STS in any race is..do you rate him on paper distances only..or by what ease he won

imo..we have never really seen him pushed bar for RVW letting him know he was there in teh Eclipse.

I would say that STS could run against a 135 horse and win by 1 length..and the next race run against a 120 horse and win by just 1 length

so putting a rating on him is only going to be relevant to the strength of that horse in second place..he just does enough to win..no matter who he runs against

so..you will never know how good a horse like STS until you get something close to him in ability

Nijinsky was never a ratings buster either..but his styl;e of winning wasn't disimilar to STS..he just coasted through races

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monster
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #65 on Oct 7, 2009, 10:45pm »

Hi EC

Good to hear from you again. STS must be a nightmare to rate by the Official Handicappers as they need to have some uniformity with previous years. You make a valid point that he tends to only do just enough.

Phil Smith the UK Official Handicapper said " I also believe that he is slightly better at 10 furlongs than 1 and a half miles. "

I have emailed Phil Smith to ask what horse or horses, were they using as a bench mark in the Irish Champion Stakes and The ARC .

Good Luck

Monster

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ec
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #66 on Oct 7, 2009, 11:12pm »

Hi Monster, nice to see you posting

Been discussing this a lot on another forum throughout the season....I have always held the view that STS had no stamina problems for 12f just by looking at his 10f wins where he was only really getting going late on ..especially in Ireland

I think the horse is just not measurable ratings wise because you will only ever rate him on who he beats...nothing has beaten him..which makes it really hard to know just what was left

Rock Of Gibraltor was similar in that he didn't get high ratings due to not winning by far..obviously STS has won his races easier than ROG did..which makes it really hard

One thing that stands out though..is that STS has got better as a racehorse as the season has gone on..his wins in Ireland & France were really tremendous to the eye

We really need to see STS as a 4yo to really stamp some accuracy on his real level of form..clearly that won't be happening

if he did run as a 4yo I think he would be talked about as possibly the best ever..because he would probably show more improvement and the fact you had two seasons of him would build a real impression of him

imagine if Brigadier Gerard had stopped racing at the end of his 3yo campaign..he would be viewed as a good horse yes....but nothing like the view we now hold after seeing his further exploits

this stud stuff really cheats us out of so much

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BC
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #67 on Oct 7, 2009, 11:52pm »

Oct 7, 2009, 4:52pm, monster wrote:

Hi John

Its a no contest, your the biggest d*ck by far

Good Luck

Monster

Monster,

Please refrain from this type of post. Thanks. It serves no purpose other than to potentially start a slanging match that we can well do without.

By the way, I asked Mark if he'd mind letting me have joint-admin status today, which I've just seen has been done (so thanks Mark). 8-)

Now I will be able to post up the links to the new additions to the Gummy archive, which will be sone over the next day or so.

BC

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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #68 on Oct 8, 2009, 12:24am »

Oct 7, 2009, 11:52pm, BC wrote:

Oct 7, 2009, 4:52pm, monster wrote:

Hi John

Its a no contest, your the biggest d*ck by far

Good Luck

Monster

Monster,

Please refrain from this type of post. Thanks. It serves no purpose other than to potentially start a slanging match that we can well do without.

HI BC

Thanks for the reminder but to get things into context and I quote John D

"If you really want to turn this into a dick-waving contest we can, only mine will be waved in private, and might cost you a lot to see. "

I was merely acknowledging that he could carry on waving his member in private and recognised a true champion in that department. We don't have such contests in the area where I live, is it some kind of foreplay or a sport that only involves one and you have to pay to be a spectator.

I will of course refrain from posting anything inflamitory, just in case.

Good Luck

Monster

« Last Edit: Oct 8, 2009, 12:30am by monster »

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johnd
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #69 on Oct 8, 2009, 6:14am »

EC

Been discussing this a lot on another forum throughout the season....I have always held the view that STS had no stamina problems for 12f just by looking at his 10f wins where he was only really getting going late on ..especially in Ireland

If you apply the same process to Mastercraftsman, you will find exactly the opposite is the case for his top level 10f runs. He didn't quite get home at York, and was beaten 1f out at the Curragh, hence being beaten a further 4l by STS (and the probable reason for the whole race being overrated).
Both trainer and jockey would obviously be aware of this, and the notion (not yours) that a trainer at the very top of his profession (Ao'B) doesn't understand the preferences of one of his best horses (MCM) at this stage of his career is entirely laughable.

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monster
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #70 on Oct 8, 2009, 9:32am »

Oct 7, 2009, 11:12pm, ec wrote:

Hi EC

I agree with your observation regarding how STS performs in the latter stages of the race.

The following was posted by me prior to the Derby on the Fatlstats Forum as there are a few others who are into the aspects of racehorse breeding (Its is still on that forum just go to advanced search, type in Subject = Sea The Stars and Author = Monster)

Re: epsom derby - time for a thread
by monster » Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:30 am

I think this is one Derby where the Female Tail ine is the most important factor in deciding the winner.

The Granddam produced Kings Best and of course Urban Sea (Arc Winner) the dam of Galileo as well as Sea The Stars. Another daughter of Allegreta was Allez Les Trois who was ther dam of Anabaa Blue, winner of the Prix du Jockey-Club (Group 1)

Prior to the 2000 Guineas Sea The Stars Sea had a slight setback as he was running a Temperature and was not certain to run in that race.

The performance is good when you watch how he was going away from the field and not coming back to them, especially as he had the set back prior to the race and missed some training.
Sea The Stars is a nice big horse who importantly is relaxed and conserves energy.

The last dam to have two Derby Winners from different sires was
Windmill Girl

Good Luck

Monster
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It will be intersting to see if over the remaining weeks of the season, if Mastercraftsman is campaigned over 10f or 8f. I'm aware of A O'Briens after race comments when he was beaten in the Irish Championship, but Team O'Brien are known to go away and rethink their strategy.

Timeforms opinion after his next time out 11f win was that it was a most authoritive performance. They also state that it should dispel any doubts on his ability to act on an artificial surface and to see out a 10f in a strongly run race.

Timeform were struck by the fact that Mastercraftsman was 13 lengths down on the pace leader 3f out and had aken the lead before the furlong marker. After having the race sewn up took things easy.

After viewing the race several times he does seem to make it look like an exercise canter, but then I suppose he should have, taking into acount the level of competition.

Oh well the next few weeks should be interesting.

Good Luck

Monster

« Last Edit: Oct 8, 2009, 9:34am by monster »

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johnd
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #71 on Oct 8, 2009, 10:24am »

Timeforms opinion after his next time out 11f win was that it was a most authoritive performance. They also state that it should dispel any doubts on his ability to act on an artificial surface and to see out a 10f in a strongly run race.

I have seen the same theory promoted on another forum, unsurprisingly by an ex-timeform employee. Quite frankly, it is rubbish!
There's an ocean of difference racing against horses 3 classes below his level, around a tight track on a forgiving surface, and at a married man's pace (t/s 76) to racing against possibly the best horse in the world on a stiff track like Leopardstown, flat out, on ground with give in it, and it's p*ss-poor form reading not to recognise it.
As already stated, Ao'B will be fully aware of MCM's capabilities, and will know that the tight Santa Anita circuit gives him his best chance of the gp1 10f win he needs to enhance his stud career, Win or lose, that won't alter the fact that he didn't see the trip out in the Irish Champion, even though (as I said at the beginning of this discussion) he has been rated as though he did.

« Last Edit: Oct 8, 2009, 10:27am by johnd »

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monster
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #72 on Oct 8, 2009, 11:08am »

RE Timeforms opinion after his next time out 11f win was that it was a most authoritive performance. They also state that it should dispel any doubts on his ability to act on an artificial surface and to see out a 10f in a strongly run race.

Its worth remembering that when Sea The Stars met Mastercraftsman at York over 10f &88yds that Mastercraftsman also broke the track record for that distance.

Also note that Team O'Brien used Georgebernardshaw and Set Sail to ensure a fast pace was set and that was presumably to see how much stamina Sea The Stars had.

Quote RP The Ballydoyle pace-setters did what they were supposed to, ensuring they went a really good gallop which led to the winner smashing the course record by 0.80 of a second

I have worked out the Average MPH for the 10f-88yds

Sea The Stars average 37.35 MPH
Mastercraftsman average 37.30 MPH

Good Luck

Monster

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johnd
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #73 on Oct 8, 2009, 1:30pm »

It's also worth remembering that York isn't Leopardstown, that g/f ground isn't gd/yld, being challenged in the final furlong isn't the same as being put to the sword 2 out, and that capitulating in the last few strides isn't the same as being beaten a furlong out.
FGS ::)

« Last Edit: Oct 8, 2009, 1:32pm by johnd »

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BC
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #74 on Oct 8, 2009, 2:06pm »

Oct 8, 2009, 1:30pm, johnd wrote:

Would have been a good post had you not ended it with FGS ::)

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #75 on Oct 8, 2009, 7:29pm »

BC mind and dinnae suffocate us aw btw were aw grown men after aw.. no wee lassies.

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #76 on Oct 8, 2009, 8:13pm »

Dae ye get ma drift?.

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monster
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #77 on Oct 8, 2009, 8:54pm »

Oct 8, 2009, 2:06pm, BC wrote:

Oct 8, 2009, 1:30pm, johnd wrote:

Would have been a good post had you not ended it with FGS ::)

Hi BC

OK with me if John D wants to end his message with FGS ::)

Its just an expression of frustration towards me as I see things differently to him.

The positive side of the thread is that EC has contributed as well and shared his thoughts. Hopefully others will return and start to post again.

Good Luck

Monster

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #78 on Oct 8, 2009, 9:59pm »

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BC
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #79 on Oct 8, 2009, 10:18pm »

Walter and other interested parties,

How do you know I'm not a wee lassie?

Look, seriously, it's little expressions like that one which help to kick it all off.

We lost George Johns, EC and Monster shortly after this forum started. I remember Monster writing something like "I take my leave of this forum" after one exchange. All the result of the overspill from Gummy's. Personally, I think it's great that Monster has been posting here again recently, and even EC looked in last night.

I accept it is just a little bit of frustration from johnd, I suppose FGS doesn't overstep the line, and he wasn't reprimanded either btw. All I said was "Would have been a good post had you not ended it with FGS".

I want people to moderate themselves. Debate. Disagree as much as you want. Get steamed up if that is your wish - but NOT to the point of abuse. And my little comment is intended to ensure people remember that they mustn't overstep the line.

Look, really.. I have no problem with Monster saying John is wrong and he hasn't got a clue what VDW meant by x, y or z.

And I have no problem with John saying that Monster is wrong and he is a poor form student if he can't see that x means that y is z.

Gummy's board was in the last few years a ghost ship. Yes, perhaps the debate had run its course. But how many contributors threw themselves overboard rather than partake or even read the nastiness that went on. You may recall that I left for over a year over it. So it just won't happen here.

If people leave, I won't beg them to stay. However, I hope by making it a place that people can debate without resorting to abuse, it will be a forum that people can feel comfortable expressing themselves, and they won't feel they want to leave.

John indicated that he thought I was biased against him. I hope my reply to him on that has reassured him. I started this forum as a continuation of our 'home' on Gummy's, and I hope it can be a home that we are ALL comfortable in, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE KNOW WHAT VDW MEANT, THINK WE KNOW WHAT HE MEANT, OR CLEARLY DON'T KNOW WHAT HE MEANT.

Of all people, I should think VDW would hate to see some of the stuff that's been written (on Gummy's) as a result of his letters. I just don't want it here.

What a lot of bacon and eggs. :-X

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johnd
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #80 on Oct 9, 2009, 1:21am »

BC

Trust me - FGS was mild!

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #81 on Oct 9, 2009, 8:31am »

Some of the best friendhips are bourne out of arguments BC :-*

..................................
We lost George Johns....did we?... where is he now?
Georgie Porgie puddin and pie kissed the girls and made them cry

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makingitslowly
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #82 on Oct 9, 2009, 8:32am »

Well said BC.Sadly the majority of what was written at Gummys was a complete waste of space.I for one will be glad to see it gone.Who knows maybe Marc Eatons can become "the" place to discuss VDW(under proper leadership!).

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #83 on Oct 9, 2009, 8:54am »

We look forward to your contributions makingitslowly btw gummy was a great board.Most of the vanderwheely brigade left because felt they were being abused (poor little souls).
Anyway they all went away and set up their exclusively exclusive vander wheely board for the exclusive.You had to be wonderfully wondefull to gain access and whilst you were in im told that everyone treated everyone else with the utmost respect.
Through time some of us were asked to join but we did`nt feel worthy.
Apparently it fizzled out for some reason not sure what went wrong as the platform was there?.

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monster
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #84 on Oct 9, 2009, 10:00am »

I have found this forum very useful as plenty of newtworking is achieved in private, as a result of posting messages on here. So keep posting even if you get a negative response. The forum is just a starting point in the process of gaining knowledge.

Many topics are covered on forums and I have found whichever Forum I have posted on (Quite a few of these are Non-VDW) there are always others who will contact you and be willing to share the workload of reseach.

In private, I have found that people are more willing to spell out and share their thoughts on VDW. It creates what VDW intended a 'swap shop' for those who have trust in each other. Future races can be analysed together and their knowledge of VDW put to the test.

Remember its ok having the ingredients, even the Missing Link that as VDW said was never missing, but think what VDW said about having all the ingredients.

Quote: VDW. Being given a list of ingredients to bake a cake will not make a super cook of you. There is an art and feel about culinary expertise just as there is with punting and many other things

Keep baking

Good Luck

Monster

« Last Edit: Oct 9, 2009, 10:00am by monster »

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grundy
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #85 on Oct 9, 2009, 11:36am »

thanks monster,
trying to find the solutions in systamatic betting..again?...are the examples based more on trainers methods..thanks

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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #86 on Oct 9, 2009, 12:11pm »

Hi Grundy

The VDW examples show how some trainers may bring horses to the boil. In training terms it is called conditioning. In another article VDW suggested selecting sevral tariner and from those yards, pick out their best horses to follow and see how they are placed, as a learning exercise. For those wishing to try this exercise, William Haggas and Sir Mark Prescott are informative.

Good Luck

Monster

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johnd
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #87 on Oct 9, 2009, 12:34pm »

Truth is, most of the abuse on VDW forums is brought on by the George John's types - who'd have us think they know it all, but have neither the knowledge or the balls to make firm pre-race selections - and it's small wonder that they go off to join private bands of like-minded hallucinaries when brought to task.
Maybe we should all adopt the same pose, keep patting each other on the back without actually achieving anything, tell everyone how successful we are away from this forum, and after-time until the cows come home, and then we can all sleep better in the warm glow of self-congratulation?
Or maybe that isn't the way forward.........but how many will stand up and be counted in the cold light of day?

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monster
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #88 on Oct 9, 2009, 12:42pm »

Pace

Quite often the Top Speed Figure does not reflect the pace. Recently I posted an example of similar times, over the same distance, on the same course and on the same day. yet drastically different.

After Mastercraftsman won at Dundalk Aiden O'Brien was quoted by The Racing Post

"Mission accomplished. You'd have to be delighted with that. Everything went to plan and [b]there was no pussyfooting out there - they went a good pace. He's in the Classic and the Mile, so we have the choice. But I would imagine he will gofor the Classic. We wanted to come here as we probably made the wrong choice last year by running Duke Of Marmalade instead of here before he went for the Classic"[/b]

When you look at the Top Speed Figure of 76 it does not seem like the same race as Aiden O'Brien described as he ran a Top Speed of 114 prior to that.

So how is he judging pace?

Ravens Pass who won last years classic in America, travelled around the course with an average speed of 37.73 MPH and proved that its not exactly a stroll in the park averaging that sort of speed over 10f as there is no breathing space during the race. The is pace is constantly being pushed.

The Fractions being 37.86 mph, 37.77 mph, 37.44mph 37.75 mph 37.82mph.

Good Luck

Monster

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Walter Pidgeon
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Re: ARC/ LONGCHAMP
« Reply #89 on Oct 9, 2009, 1:28pm »

I agree with most of what you said in your last post JD the vanderwheelie boys that left were fed up getting stick from the likes of Epi, Jib, jimmy, and some others.Fair enough you have to draw the line somewhere and it all got far too personal at one stage even in my book but maybe if the vdw boys had opened up a bit and cut the doubters some slack it may all have ended differently.
I kid you not this is serious stuff .....if you can really forgive someone you have taken a right dislike to for one reason or another you will be sorted.

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