"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW pre-race selections « Reply #252 on Nov 15, 2009, 5:03pm »
Fulham posted this on UKBT: "I see that Master Minded has just been turned over at short odds while seemingly a VDW good thing.
It is worth reading Lee's post of 19/11/04 on the Gummy forum relating to the late lamented Best Mate, and subsequent posts, as he explained to another poster that, despite the fact that BM won, one would have needed to be an idiot to have backed it".
I have dug Lee's posts out of the archive:
Lee Posted November 19, 2004 01:58 PM My opinion is that you'd have to be mad to back Best Mate today from a VDW angle - people get carried away with the hype that surrounds horses such as BM, surely people can wait for more solid opportunities at better prices?
Interesting, but why?
Lee Posted November 20, 2004 09:03 AM Investor,
The betting public get carried away with the likes of Best Mate, but there are times when they clearly shouldn’t be backed, and if Best Mate is a typical bet by those who backed him yesterday, and they stand by their decision to back him, they will never make money from betting on horses.
You clearly implied in your post before the race that ‘first time out’ wouldn’t be a problem for the horse? The fact that he just got up on the line against Seebald confirmed to me that it would be a problem, and my judgment was correct that to back the horse would be folly. 10 lengths in the Cheltenham Gold Cup 03, the highest class chase of them all, 9 lengths in the Ericsson Chase 03 – not the sign of a horse that just does enough to win his races!
A piece of advise - Don’t listen to what the owners have to say either before or after the race, they come with emotional attachment, and Jim Lewis and all concerned know that Best Mate had to work for it yesterday, and will need the 6 weeks off before the Ericsson, but it's all part of the plan.
Lee Posted November 20, 2004 10:46 AM Investor,
Without wishing to push the issue, your view on this one race has seemingly changed tack throughout the course of discussion.
Firstly, and most importantly, you imply prior to the off that ‘first time out’ would not be a problem for Best Mate, but state afterwards that it was the only factor that stopped him being a racing certainty. I can’t help but think that had Best Mate won by a country mile you wouldn’t have held the same view, indeed I suspect that he would have, in your opinion, been a ‘racing certainty’.
After the race you state that he was there to do a job, and did it like the class animal that he is, but then concede that you may have ‘jumped in a bit’ yesterday?
It matters little what ones views are after the race other than to confirm to oneself if his/her judgment prior to the race was accurate or not. I only made a point of posting my view on Best Mate in order that I could comfortably enter discussion afterwards.
Lee Posted November 20, 2004 01:17 PM Investor,
My post was that anyone backing Best Mate must be mad, and my stance on that hasn’t changed.
Consistent in the highest class, but there’s more to VDW and racing than that. First of all, why was the horse entered? Was BM placed to win? – NO, we ALL know when and where that will be. Should BM have won? Of course he should.
Would it have mattered if BM had lost yesterday? – NO, not the be all and end all, and is part of the reason why VDW wouldn’t have touched it.
Pkboy,
I think you’re looking at things from the wrong angle. Neither the Gold Cup nor yesterday’s race was a downturn in form for Best Mate. The fact that Sir Rembrandt got close on the big day but failed to feature yesterday could be for many different reasons, which cannot be quantified accurately enough to be certain of the answer – however, JIB has pointed out one.
Sir Rembrandt, like most in the race, would have been primed for the Gold Cup. First Gold made it a test, which was ideal for SR, whilst BM had some traffic problems where it mattered but was classy enough to over come the loss of a few lengths and score as expected in the highest class of all.
Yesterday BM was ran close by Seebald giving some weight away on his seasonal bow. Seebald had a race under his belt and had previously shown good heart in a good race. Best Mate was once again expected to win, and although close, win he did maintaining consistency when factors were against him. However, it still doesn’t alter the fact that come the Cheltenham Gold Cup his win over Seebald is a positive in his form line. Even if he’d been touched off, it may still be a positive, depending what he does and against what in the Ericsson.
Next time out will again be a watching brief, but what the horse does, and against what, will be most crucial.
Lee Posted November 20, 2004 01:41 PM Pkboy,
barring accidents Best Mate WILL run again before the Gold Cup, but you've brought in to the fold a very important part of the method which ensures that one is looking for the winner in the race, and not of the race.
If Best Mate wasn't, for some reason, able to run again then I doubt the form of yesterday would hold up, when compared to the likely opposition that he will be facing. That doesn't mean he won't win, just not enough evidence to say he will.
He may win again in Ireland, but only when we have the race card for cheltenham, and know what he's beat in Ireland, and how he beat them, will we know if it's good enough to back. Only if improvement is shown will the form of yesterday come in to the equation, which is positive.
Investor,
I'm not interested in what you've got in your pockets. Of course everyone has an opinion, which is just as well otherwise there would be no market. If you backed Best Mate yesterday then in my opinion you were mad to do so.
Poor old Investor. He came in for some stick even when he did post a winner pre-race.
To see them in context with Investor and PKBoys points, see page 805+ on the VDW (Continued) thread.
BC
UKBT is on the links thread as suggested by Les. I'm not a member of UKBT, so can't reply there. But I do lurk there occasionally!!
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW pre-race selections « Reply #253 on Nov 15, 2009, 9:29pm »
Easy enough to say after the race BC, but it's a point I've made often enough before - anyone betting a horse that regularly wins 100k races, and making their seasonal debut in a 31k race, really wants their bumps feeling. Probably the only reason he ran today is that the race was laid on by the stable's own sponsors, and totally different to last season when he debuted in the much more valuable Tingle Creek. Good horse though he is, Well Chief will only see MM's rear-end on their next meeting, no matter that today's form suggests otherwise.
Joined: Jan 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 5,628 Location: Scotland
Re: VDW pre-race selections « Reply #255 on Nov 16, 2009, 12:41am »
From The Mirror Online. Master Minded (1.45) is the star attraction at Cheltenham today, but Paul Nicholls warns that the dual Champion Chase winner is likely to be short of his brilliant best.
The world's fastest chaser has not raced since scoring at Punchestown six-and-a-half months ago, so the trainer is using today's race as a stepping stone to much bigger targets.
"Next month's Tingle Creek at Sandown is Master Minded's first major assignment of the season and I've left a fair bit to work on," said Nicholls.
"He's got a long campaign ahead of him and you have to train him accordingly in order to have him cherry ripe for the big races. We've got to start somewhere and this race is ideal, three weeks before Sandown. The horse has summered well, he's in good nick."
Well Chief, one of the best ever two-milers not to win the Champion Chase, was a sevenlength second to Master Minded in March so a10lb pull gives him a chance of turning the tables. And word from David Pipe's yard is that the 10-yearold, lightly raced in recent seasons owing to recurring injury problems, is fighting fit and raring to go.
David Johnson, his owner, said: "It won't be easy because Master Minded is rated 178 and Well Chief 163, so 10lb may not be enough. But we expect him to give the favourite a real test."
Easy enough to say after the race BC, but it's a point I've made often enough before - anyone betting a horse that regularly wins 100k races, and making their seasonal debut in a 31k race, really wants their bumps feeling. Probably the only reason he ran today is that the race was laid on by the stable's own sponsors, and totally different to last season when he debuted in the much more valuable Tingle Creek. Good horse though he is, Well Chief will only see MM's rear-end on their next meeting, no matter that today's form suggests otherwise.
Hi John,
I'd have thought MM would have picked that one up yesterday. Yes, WC has been a great horse, but even with 10lbs advantage shouldn't have won imo. Of course, the point has been made not only by you, Lee and Fulham, but also by the defeat. Maybe I'll learn this time 'round.
OK, I accept what you're saying - that to back a horse outside of its' target goes against the method i.e. "when the prize is big enough". But to come third?
If MM had come second to WC, we could say that perhaps the 10lbs was his undoing. But third? Something does seem to be amiss. However, it's a fair point John is making, as Fulham and Lee have also pointed out.
You pays your money and you takes your chance (as Investor commented in the Best Mate discussion). However, "when the prize is big enough" does seem to indicate that from a VDW perspective, backing in the target race, and not the preparations, is a requirement.
From The Mirror Online. Master Minded (1.45) is the star attraction at Cheltenham today, but Paul Nicholls warns that the dual Champion Chase winner is likely to be short of his brilliant best.
A pity I watched a TV interview with Paul Nicholls in the morning of the race - that is not what he seemed to be saying in it - quite the reverse actually!! Silly me.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW pre-race selections « Reply #267 on Nov 21, 2009, 5:57pm »
I didn't learn from last week and almost got done again.
Meanwhile, a cracking result for Johnd, Jaconet W6/1 "Fast away, made all but not at breakneck pace, kicked on over 2f out, maintained gallop to finish, unchallenged"
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
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