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garstonf
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|  | “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Thread Started on Apr 26, 2009, 10:42pm » | ![[Quote]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/quote.gif) ![[Modify]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/modify.gif) ![[Delete]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/delete.gif) |
We all know about the numerical picture figure anomalies in “Narrow the Field” but how many are aware of the weight difference anomalies.
VDW said Prominent King carried a massive 12-7 last time out (correct according to the Form Book) beaten 5l by Drumgora who is now re-opposing on 17lb worse terms. Drumgora carried 11-2 (according to the Form Book) and both are carrying the same weight (11-4) for the Erin.
Now I make it 12-7 minus 11-2 as 19lb not 17lb.
VDW also stated Prominent King had 15Ib less to carry than last time out.
Again, I make it 12-7 minus 11-4 as 17lb not 15lb.
The big question is where did VDW get his information from?
Can anyone with a 1977-78 Subscription Form Book confirm that Drumgora carried 11-2 in Prominent King’s race prior to the Erin?
Can anyone get access to a Sat, Feb 18, 1978 issue of the Daily Mail, Sporting Chronicle or Sporting Life and check for any weight discrepancies.
Also the same with a Thu, Feb16, 1978 issue of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book.
If it can be found that the information in one of the papers was wrong then we will have identified for certain what paper VDW used. We should then be able to answer a few more questions.
If it is found that VDW thought there was only 12lb in a stone. Well that doesn’t bear thinking about.
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Pitmatic
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #1 on Apr 26, 2009, 11:37pm » | |
Hi Garston,
According to the Sporting Life:-
In the Jan 14th race at Leopardstown (Prominent King's & Drumgora's race before the Erin).
Prominent King carried 12-7
Drumgora carried 11-2
In the Erin they were both set to carry 11-4.
Doesn't seem as if there are any jockey's allowances to be taken into account either.
Raceform Up-To-Date/Chaseform 1977 - 1978 Postal Subscription Edition form book also gives the weights carried (Race 1961) as:-
Prominent King 12-7
Drumgora 11-2
Quite clearly a weight difference of 19lbs.
Raceform/Chaseform also gives the weights carried in the Erin (Race 2243) as:-
Prominent King 11-4
Drumgora 11-4
Hope this helps!!!
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #2 on Apr 26, 2009, 11:38pm » | |
Hi Garstonf
Drumgora carrie 11-2 in the race against PK. It looks like VDW used the 11-4 that Drumgora carried in the Erin and subtracted that from 12-7 making it 17lbs worse off. Of course you get 19lbs if you use the level weight example.
The weights in the Formbook for the Erin are exactly the same as they appeared in the Sporting Life Newspaper.
Good Luck
Monster
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Pitmatic
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #3 on Apr 26, 2009, 11:45pm » | |
Hi Monster
Our posts must have crossed - your explanation seems spot on, as the operative phrase in VDW's sentence was that Drumgora was re-opposing on 17lb worse terms.
Seems very obvious now - much too late for me tonight, I think.
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garstonf
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #4 on Apr 27, 2009, 3:49pm » | |
Pitmatic
The Postal Subscription info is important because it shows, to me, that because of the weight anomalies VDW did not consult the Form Book. But instead took the information from a form summary in one of the papers mentioned previously. I presume the pull out returns from the SCHB would be the same as the Postal Subscription. I wouldn’t expect anybody to have kept these; after all I didn’t keep mine.
It seems to me also that VDW did not use the Sporting Life on this occasion, which should blow some peoples’ class/form theories for this race out of the water. But that’s another story.
At this moment we seem to be left requiring info from the Daily Mail and Sporting Chronicle Daily or Handicap Book Weekly.
Monster
I could accept that VDW made a simple mistake deducting 11-4 from 12-7 instead of 11-2 if Prominent King’s deduction figure was correct. The fact they are both wrong leads me to conclude it was through misinformation and not miscalculation.
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #5 on Apr 27, 2009, 5:20pm » | |
Hi Garstonf
I don't think the odd couple of lbs is going to matter that much difference to the PK example, it was to demonstrate the huge shift in weight advantage and in relation to the value of the form. Its also worth noting that PK carried 11-11 in his previous attempt at the Erin.
(Later on VDW mentioned reading the 'small print on the ticket' I take this to mean the weight conditions, which are normally found above the runners on the card)
Good Luck
MONSTER
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mtoto
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #6 on Apr 27, 2009, 6:53pm » | |
It seems to me also that VDW did not use the Sporting Life on this occasion, which should blow some peoples’ class/form theories for this race out of the water.
Monster,
While like you I'm not at all convinced a few pounds either way would make a difference to PK being the selection. What does interest me is the "suggestion" idea that the Sporting Life may not have the paper of preference for VDW. If this is the case the ability rating would have been a very time consuming pass time.
As you may know I have never been convinced that ability rating was used by VDW. Well not in the beginning anyway.
Be Lucky
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #7 on Apr 27, 2009, 7:58pm » | |
Hi Mtoto
My understanding is that he used the Sporting Life as he mentions that paper for the ratings in the Wing And A Prayer Examples and the Daily Mail.
In other examples Desert Hero, Gaye Brief, Badsworth Boy and Bregawn he states that these were found with the aid of nothing more than can be found each day in the Sporting Chronicle.
Good Luck
Monster
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mtoto
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #8 on Apr 27, 2009, 8:43pm » | |
Well not in the beginning anyway.
Monster,
The operative word in the above sentence is beginning. There is no doubt he used the Life in SIAO. However this is just after he has introduced the ability rating!!
When he introduced the rating he said...........For obvious
reasons this is not foolproof, but at least it enables a better judgment to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few. With the Erin PK was joint 7th, not in my view near the top. He does say PK was top on one method of rating and joint top on the other, that is near the top. For me the only logical purpose of using these ratings is to measure ability. If they are not used to measure ability, how can they perform the requirement of......To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses' chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data.
Be Lucky
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Michael
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #9 on Apr 27, 2009, 8:59pm » | |
All
Has anyone got an old Sporting life that has been copied on to computer that they could email me
Thanks
have fun
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #10 on Apr 28, 2009, 12:17am » | |
Hi Mtoto
I think that VDW used PK as an example to answer the 4 questions raised by Win, Brighton. In future examples he contiued to answer those 4 questions.
With regards to ability rating there is aother well known example To Agori Mou who was well down the pecking order in the 2000 Guineas example. Of course it was the class of horse that To Agori Mou had previously met that gave an indication to his class.
In response to J.P.Hollis,ADuncan and F Chester
It does not follow that a good thing always shows from the from the preliminary mechanical procedure; this can only be [b]determined from a close study of form and associated aspects. [/b]
It is interesting as this is the letter where he introduces us to his Logical Formula and note that the first part of the formula is Constant Form and not consistent form, as it later appeared.
Good Luck
Monster
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mtoto
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #11 on Apr 28, 2009, 2:11am » | |
Of course it was the class of horse that To Agori Mou had previously met that gave an indication to his class.
Monster,
I can only agree with the above. Of course the same can be said for PK and in neither case is the horses ability reflected by its A/R
It does not follow that a good thing always shows from the from the preliminary mechanical procedure; this can only be determined from a close study of form and associated aspects.
Again I have no problem with the above quote. However when this was written it must be remembered the mechanical procedure had only been explained as consistency and forecast. That is IF the two other methods of rating are ignored. Re the formula at this time only one method of measuring ability had been mentioned, and it wasn't the one everyone now knows, and uses. Up until then the only time ability had been mentioned was in letter 19.
Be Lucky
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #12 on Apr 28, 2009, 9:51am » | |
Hi Mtoto
When enthusiasts try to put the formula into practice it is Form that causes the biggest problem.
Two of VDW's examples went into some depth regarding this part of the Formula. Roushayd and Pegwell Bay. Other examples also gave hints as to why a certain runner had a strong form line or Constant Form.
At the end of the day only you can only apply your interpretation of the Formula on a daily basis and see how things pan out.
Good Luck
Monster
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garstonf
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #13 on Apr 28, 2009, 11:40am » | |
Monster
The odd couple of lbs and the example itself is not the issue here. I started this thread to see if we, as a forum, could identify how the weight difference anomalies occurred.
What we are looking for is a publication with incorrect weights for the Erin i.e. Drumgora and Prominent King carrying 11-6 instead of 11-4, or perhaps something in the form summary of a publication to account for the errors.
We know that the 5 horses listed in “Narrow the Field” are not the forecast from the Sporting Life or the Chronicle but they are from the Daily Mail. This does not mean they are not also the forecast from any other daily newspaper.
We know for certain that VDW had that weekends Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book, although I am not sure if any copies still exist.
So if anyone has any data from the Daily Mail or SCHB it would be a great help.
P.S. You forgot to mention PK won the corresponding race in 1976 (according to my reckoning).
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #14 on Apr 28, 2009, 12:07pm » | |
Hi Garstonf
Re "P.S. You forgot to mention PK won the corresponding race in 1976 (according to my reckoning). "
PK won the Scalp Hurdle in 1976 Class 24 and was 2nd in the Ticknock Hurdle in 1978 class 6. There does seem to be a difference in the Class of both races.
There are examples of VDW selections having run in the same race before and we know that PK had run in the Erin before his 1978 run.
Travado Peterborough Chase (Class A) Grade 1993
LTO Race = Plymouth Gin Haldon Gold Challenge Cup Chase Peterborough Chase (Class A) Grade 2 21/11/95
LTO Race Plymouth Gin Haldon Gold Challenge Cup Chase
Ever Smile
Philip Barnard Memorial Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle 1993 finished 5th
Philip Barnard Memorial Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle (Class E) 1996 won
Valiant warrior « 2:30 » Newcastle Building Society Handicap Chase (Class B)
(Class 2) (0-140, 5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences 18th Feb 1995 finished 2nd
« 3:00 » Newcastle Building Society Handicap Chase (Class B)
(Class 2) (0-140, 5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 14 fences 2 omitted, 1996 won
I'm not really sure what you are looking for with PK, in relation to the various Newspapers, so I am probably not of much help to you.
Good Luck
Monster
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mtoto
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #15 on Apr 28, 2009, 2:09pm » | |
I'm not really sure what you are looking for with PK, in relation to the various Newspapers, so I am probably not of much help to you.
Monster,
I can't answer for Garston, so I will leave it to him to answer your question. However as said from my point of view knowing if VDW did or didn't use the Life is quite interesting as for me at least it does raise doubts about the A/R being used. I haven't a copy of the Daily Mail for the Erin, but I think Fulham has seen one. Here I would be more interested in the Formcast rating for this race. Re the SCHB working from memory I don't think the Irish races got that much coverage, so would be surprised if the weight mistakes came from there.
To go of thread slightly can I ask how you think VDW measured form? If it is just down to personal interpretation of the form book, how does the suggestion we will all have the same horse sit? Did he mean we will all ONLY have the same short list, and not have the same selections. When I read terms like certainty, good thing, etc. I think he was talking about selections.
Be Lucky
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #16 on Apr 28, 2009, 3:08pm » | |
Hi Mtoto
All I can say is that I believe that there is strong evidence for a VDW way of looking at Form and not just down to our own personal interpretation.
Good Luck
Monster
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mtoto
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #17 on Apr 28, 2009, 4:25pm » | |
So if anyone has any data from the Daily Mail or SCHB it would be a great help.
Garston,
Fulham has confirmed he has seen the Daily Mail for the Erin. He has also confirmed there is very little information on the race, not even Formcast ratings. So not much joy there, and as said before I don't remember the SCHB carrying much information on Irish races at that time.
He went on to say..........If you want to pursue your search, you will find microfilm copies of, usually, the Times, Telegraph and Mail in many university libraries; copies of all the national daily papers (including the Life and Sporting Chronicle) and the main regional papers (including those covering Market Harborough) in the British Library Newspaper Library at Colindale, north London; and copies of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book for some reason in the main British Library, not its Newspaper Library, at St Pancras, central London. You should have no difficulty whatsoever gaining access to the Newspaper Library, and in the Summer vacation most university libraries, but may not find it easy to access the main British Library as (contrary to what one might think from its name) they try to limit admissions to bona fide academic researchers who cannot find the materials they want elsewhere. I'm not sure researching racing matters would cut much ice with the admissions office.
Be Lucky
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les
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #18 on Apr 28, 2009, 6:29pm » | |
what should we be looking for in a horse thats CONSTANT , constantly in better races,constantly in it at the end of its races, constantly in the front of the betting, what monster?
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monster
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #19 on Apr 28, 2009, 11:17pm » | |
Hi Les
If you were looking at the last 3 races that Roushayd contested prior to the Old Newton Cup, was the eventual winner of those races the most likely winner.
You could say that the Form line was constant and although Roushayd was competing in these races at no time did VDW expect him to win.
VDW commented about Pegwell Bay after he had won. The Mackeson : " The result makes it appear he is capable of winning again before long." He already had the strongest form line and was further strengthened by going up in class and winning as expected. How he was placed would be the determining factor.
Sunset Christo: VDW was indicating that you should look at the Form lines, in particular race 1202 & 978.
Some form lines appear to be more constant than others.
Good Luck
Monster
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garstonf
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #20 on Apr 29, 2009, 8:02pm » | |
Mtoto
Please convey my thanks to Fulham for the library info. Unfortunately, I’m not in a position to make visits to any libraries in London, although I will be at White Hart Lane on Saturday cheering on the baggies on our way to the championship.
Monster
“Its also worth noting that PK carried 11-11 in his previous attempt at the Erin.”
For me the 11-11 is further proof that VDW did not possess form books when assessing the Erin.
From my reading of the 1977 Erin Prominent King carried a 12lb penalty. This must have been for his win in the 1976 Scalp Hurdle as no penalties seem to have been given for Maiden Hurdle wins. The Scalp Hurdle was one of the major races in the Irish racing calendar having previously been won by the likes of Flyingbolt, L'Escargot and Captain Christy. So even without previous form books a study of the weights should draw you to the conclusion that Prominent King had won something.
The 1978 Erin however was a different matter. Here the 1976 victories no longer applied where the weight conditions were concerned and Prominent King carried the minimum weight for his age. Now without previous form books it would be impossible to tell if Prominent King was a maiden or not.
Perhaps VDW concluded he was a maiden, hence his statement that Prominent King was a horse without a winning class rating. Of course he could have meant something entirely different.
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monster
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Arkle55
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #22 on Apr 29, 2009, 10:00pm » | |
HI GUYS
A couple of years back i was in Ireland at this time of year and the only Irish meeting that the racing post covered with any depth was Punchestown. I thought that being in Ireland , Irish racing would have received more coverage, how wrong i was. However there must be some kind of form book that the trainers have been using over the years for Irish racing, those guys are certainly not stupid and some kind of guide would be needed to know what is what as well has a telephone.
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Arkle55
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #23 on Apr 29, 2009, 10:08pm » | |
My brain has just had another recall . A number of years ago channel 4 racing had a interview with a guy who's name i can not remember,who had a library with every single book on horse racing. I think he was based in Newmarket and i am sure it was also open to the public by appoinment. Maybe someone else know's a bit more.
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grundy
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #24 on Apr 30, 2009, 10:09pm » | |
thanks monster, everyone great information... reading golden years again....why after his intial letters, g hall, never replied to van der wheil, again or any other letters to the handicap book?
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boozer
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #25 on May 2, 2009, 8:54am » | |
Grundy
G Hall ,VDW
I believe are the same person
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grundy
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #26 on May 2, 2009, 1:51pm » | |
hi boozer,
thanks .. no wonder g hall, found the answers to vdw, questions...?
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BC
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| | Re: “Narrow the Field” anomalies.
« Reply #27 on May 2, 2009, 3:54pm » | |
May 2, 2009, 1:51pm, grundy wrote:hi boozer,
thanks .. no wonder g hall, found the answers to vdw, questions...? |
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