thought and thought about a vdw quote ie not against much how would he quantify that and how would he guage who his horses beat i think he must have used his ability and consistencey figures ie horse A beaten by horse B horse A has a ability rating of say 120 and consistencey of 5 do you show your new rating as 5/120 or divide 120 by 5 and show it as 24? have not used them as yet i,ll give it a go at cheltenham
I think you could use the grading system (e.g. running well in a class 2). But you'd also need to see what the mark in that class 2 had been consistently running in. If class 4's, the the class 2 is really only probably a good class 3/4. Of course you can use prize money I guess, but using the grades is quick.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #121 on Feb 24, 2010, 8:53pm »
By the way, are people finding the tables useful? Does anyone feel they have improved themselves as a result of keeping records in this way? Does anyoone refer back to them?
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #123 on Feb 24, 2010, 9:03pm »
just started to go through vdw again my understanding was poor by reading through the old gummy posts and re-eading and re-reading its eventualy sinking in
bc i ment the horse it beat not the race ,B beat A , A was cons 5 ,ability 120 or 24
just started to go through vdw again my understanding was poor by reading through the old gummy posts and re-eading and re-reading its eventualy sinking in
bc i ment the horse it beat not the race ,B beat A , A was cons 5 ,ability 120 or 24
or beat C ,cons 20 ability 40=2 did,nt beat much?
What I'm saying is that you could use the grades of race (as your AR) and get a feel for how they performed in those grades (as your CR). For an extreme example of what I'm suggesting, have a look at the form of the horses in today's 355 Lingfield. Look at the winners recent race grades and how he performed and agaist what, versus the others. It really was a one horse race and is a great example of what I meant.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #125 on Feb 24, 2010, 9:55pm »
By the way. The reason I asked about the table is that I'm not going to put any more selections up. Mine are not VDW selections (as he prescribed it in the booklets anyway). I can't remember the last time I sat and worked out an AR etc. And I've taken that approach as far as it will go.
What I would like to do at some future time is to emulate Arkle with dutching decent priced selections. Need more time than I've got available for that though.
I will keep the table going to the end of the Flat Season for those who find it beneficial though - so if you want to keep posting, please do.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
just started to go through vdw again my understanding was poor by reading through the old gummy posts and re-eading and re-reading its eventualy sinking in
bc i ment the horse it beat not the race ,B beat A , A was cons 5 ,ability 120 or 24
or beat C ,cons 20 ability 40=2 did,nt beat much?
What I'm saying is that you could use the grades of race (as your AR) and get a feel for how they performed in those grades (as your CR). For an extreme example of what I'm suggesting, have a look at the form of the horses in today's 355 Lingfield. Look at the winners recent race grades and how he performed and agaist what, versus the others. It really was a one horse race and is a great example of what I meant.
BC
BC, if my understanding of your above post is correct (i could be wrong) that would be to easy, how would you allow for a horse with similar comments but waiting in the wings to move up in class / grade.Somehow we all need to put our heads together and find the better logical reasons for supporting horses and i do'nt mean distance winners or course winners etc etc.I dont know for sure but i do think that the answer is probably staring us in the face and probably something that is so bleeding obvious we just do'nt see it. A comparison being, how many of us have lived in a certain area for some 10 years or more and every day we walk or drive past something and we think to ourselves i've never seen that before. In reality we probably did see it but for some reason we just do'nt register yet the object in question has probably been there for years and years.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #128 on Feb 25, 2010, 9:17am »
what i,m asking is do other vdw,ers gauge the opposition this way if your class/form horse beat a high ability consistent type lto then it can be said its in form,or even ran close
yes i know bc but trying to get to grips with the ability rating only rate a couple of races on a saturday and the big meetings so its not to much of a slog
Joined: Jan 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 5,628 Location: Scotland
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #129 on Feb 25, 2010, 1:33pm »
les i have a print out by Barney from a few years back which looks similar to what you are saying i`ll fetch it out after lunch & post it up for you.He goes through a race pre- race dont think he had the winner that day mind.
Joined: Jan 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 5,628 Location: Scotland
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #130 on Feb 25, 2010, 2:09pm »
First six in betting
Vanderlin Feet So Fast Fire Up The Band Online Investor Nemo Fugat My Only Sunshine Pick Up Sticks
From these Nemo Fugat & Pick Up Sticks can be scrubbed immediately.
Vanderlin class 65 form 4,coming from a class 94 race where not expected and showed improvement.
Feet So Fast class 43 form 13, coming from class 67 was beaten as expected. Scrubbed
Fire Up The Band class 65 form 7, coming from class 105 where showed improvement and is now well placed.
Online Investor class 34 form 14, coming from class 156 (debut this season) beaten as expected.
My Only Sunshine, class 29 form 19, coming from class 105 (Fire Up The Band) is not weighted to reverse placings. Scrubbed
That leaves 3, a book?
Fire Up The Band looks a good thing, however another method makes Online Investor a big danger and i will leave the race alone. ..................................................................
Result:
Lingfield Result 11 May 2002 « 4:10 » Tote Scoop6 Sprint Showcase Handicap (Class B) (Class 2) (0-105, 3yo) 6f Good £29,000.00, £11,000.00, £5,500.00, £2,500.00, £1,250.00, £750.00
WATCH RACE - 20p RESULT RATE RACE Hide all comments in running Show all pedigrees HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED
« 1 17 Feet So Fast 5/2F 3 8-9 W J Musson 90 94 105 — » ch g Pivotal - Splice (Sharpo) Pat Eddery Made all on stands rail, ridden and held on well final 2f, in control last 50y (op 3-1 tchd 7-2 in a place)
« 2 10 1½ Vanderlin 7/2 3 8-47 I A Balding 92 90 103 — » ch g Halling (USA) - Massorah (FR) (Habitat) L P Keniry7 Mid-division, ridden and stayed on final 2f, went 2nd near finish (tchd 3-1, 4-1 in places)
« 3 11 1¼ Hollybell 16/1 3 7-5 J Gallagher 77 70 84 — » b m Beveled (USA) - Fayre Holly (IRE) (Fayruz) David Kinsella5 Dwelt, rear on stands rail, pulled wide and headway over 2f out, pressed leaders over 1f out, one pace (op 14-1 tchd 20-1 in places)
« 4 2 ¾ Fire Up The Band 9/1 3 8-1 D Nicholls 82 72 87 — » b g Prince Sabo - Green Supreme (Primo Dominie) Adrian T Nicholls With leaders towards centre, not quicken final furlong (op 8-1 tchd 10-1)
« 5 12 1¾ Pic Up Sticks 10/1 3 8-5 M R Channon 86 69 86 — » gr g Piccolo - Between The Sticks (Pharly) Steve Drowne Held up towards rear, ridden and stayed on final 2f, not reach leaders (tchd 12-1 in places)
« 6 7 1¼ Online Investor 8/1 3 9-4 C G Cox 99 77 95 — » b g Puissance - Anytime Baby (Bairn) Neil Pollard Started slowly, keen hold, rear until ridden and headway 2f out, never near to challenge (op 7-1 tchd 9-1)
« 7 4 nk Flur Na H Alba 14/1 3 8-7 M Johnston 88 66 83 — » b g Atraf - Tyrian Belle (Enchantment I) K Darley With leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (op 12-1 tchd 16-1 in places)
« 8 16 nk Funfair Wane 12/1 3 9-0 M R Channon 102 80 96 — » b g Unfuwain (USA) - Ivory Bride (Domynsky) Dean Corby7 Prominent on stands rail, slightly hampered over 2f out, soon beaten (op 14-1 tchd 16-1 in a place)
« 9 3 1½ Parisian Elegance 50/1 3 8-8 R M H Cowell 96 68 85 — » b m Zilzal (USA) - Tshusick (Dancing Brave) Ryan Moore7 Held up in touch, ridden to chase leaders over 2f out, went left well over 1f out, no extra
« 10 6 shd My Only Sunshine 10/1 3 8-21 G G Margarson 83 55 72 — » b g First Trump - Fiveofive (IRE) (Fairy King) Philip Robinson With leaders until weakened over 1f out (tchd 12-1 in places)
« 11 15 1¼ Strathclyde (IRE) 16/1 3 7-101 J Cullinan 77 44 62 — » b g Petong - It's Academic (Royal Academy) Matthew Henry Keen hold, in touch, outpaced over 2f out, soon beaten (tchd 20-1 in places)
« 12 14 1¼ Lord Merlin (IRE) 40/1 3 9-0 W J Musson 95 57 77 — » b g Turtle Island (IRE) - My-O-My (IRE) (Waajib) Fergus Sweeney Dwelt, ridden 3f out, always behind (op 33-1 tchd 50-1 in places)
« 13 8 shd J M W Turner 20/1 3 8-51 N P Littmoden 86 48 66 — » b h Forzando - Noor El Houdah (IRE) (Fayruz) T Quinn Towards rear, headway over 2f out, held when slightly hampered well over 1f out (tchd 25-1 in places)
« 14 13 ½ King Harson 20/1 3 8-3 b J D Bethell 84 44 64 — » b g Greensmith - Safari Park (Absalom) W J Supple Prominent until halfway (tchd 25-1 in places)
14 ran TIME 1m 10.38s (slow by 0.58s) Total SP 130% NON RUNNERS: Jahangir, Just James, Nemo Fugat (IRE) 1st OWNER: Invoshire Ltd BRED: Cheveley Park Stud Ltd TRAINER: W J Musson 2nd OWNER: Exors Of The Late Robert Hitchins 3rd OWNER: Mrs D Yeats Brown TOTE WIN £4.60 PL £2.50, £2.80, £8.40; Ex £12.50; CSF £11.15; TRICAST £130.51 TRIFECTA £395.10 Pool: £2,894.20 - 5.20 winning units ANALYSIS NOTEBOOK MY RACE NOTES A decent handicap for only three and four year olds in which the first four finished nicely clear but, depending how the handicapper views it, they will find life harder back against their elders off higher marks.
FEET SO FAST made the most of the favoured stands rail draw. Connections pointed to a worry about the ground drying out against him but he made light of it, although the ground will dictate his season - he holds a Golden Jubilee entry (Cork and Orrery) at Royal Ascot but that looks unlikely under seasonal conditions.
The subsequent victory of his Windsor conqueror and elder Border Subject on his seasonal return suggested that he could have got in lightly off an unchanged mark and the handicapper could overreact to this, but he is not overly big to carry big weights.
Vanderlin still looks progressive, chasing home the winner strongly from out of the pack, which suggests that he will have no problem with another furlong this year. Again connections will also be nervously awaiting the handicapper´s verdict.
Both Hollybell and Fire Up The Band deserve extra credit for their efforts as they finished midtrack. Hollybell still looks ahead of the handicapper on this showing, especially as she had to switch away from a stands rail pitch to come right round her field to challenge.
Fire Up The Band also looks progressive, having to make his own pace wider out. Online Investor again did his chances no good with a slow start and along with Funfair Wane, who could not use a stands side berth, and Parisian Elegance, looks in the handicapper´s grip.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #131 on Feb 25, 2010, 2:12pm »
Les,
Sorry, but only just caught up. I personally follow the angle of what the key horse had done in its previous race, e.g. if horse A beats horse B by 2l in a Class 247 race then it will be more of an achievement if B had previously finished 4l 3/30 in a Class 256 race rather than 4l 3/4 in a Class 65 race.
Joined: Jan 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 5,628 Location: Scotland
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #132 on Feb 25, 2010, 2:17pm »
Here is the race the winner ran in prior to the race above les.
Windsor Result 29 Apr 2002 « 7:10 » Tote Exacta Classified Stakes (Class C) (Part of The Tote Series) (Class 3) (0-90, 3yo+) 6f Good £6,711.25, £2,065.00, £1,032.50, £516.25
WATCH RACE - 20p RESULT RATE RACE Hide all comments in running Show all pedigrees HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED
« 1 2 Border Subject 7/4F 5 9-0 R Charlton 89 96 107 — » b g Selkirk (USA) - Topicality (USA) (Topsider) Steve Drowne Made virtually all, pushed clear entering final furlong, comfortably (op 5-4 tchd 15-8 in places)
« 2 7 4 Feet So Fast 3/1 3 8-6 W J Musson 90 80 98 — » ch g Pivotal - Splice (Sharpo) Pat Eddery Rear, found gap and headway to chase winner over 1f out, no impression (op 7-2 tchd 4-1 in places)
« 3 4 4 Chispa 10/1 4 8-4 M C Chapman 78 61 80 — » b m Imperial Frontier (USA) - Digamist Girl (IRE) (Digamist) Dean Corby7 Tracked leaders until no extra approaching final furlong (tchd 12-1 and 14-1 in a place)
« 4 1 1¾ Yorkies Boy 7/2 7 9-2 J G Given 92 59 80 — » gr g Clantime - Slipperose (Persepolis) K Darley Pressed winner until weakened over 1f out (op 9-4 tchd 4-1 in a place)
« 5 5 4 Cubism (USA) 13/2 6 9-0 J A Osborne 90 41 66 — » b h Miswaki (USA) - Seattle Kat (USA) (Seattle Song) Shane Kelly Rear, headway over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (op 6-1 tchd 7-1)
« 6 6 8 Mr Spliffy (IRE) 50/1 3 8-3 M C Chapman 54 — 42 — » b g Fayruz - Johns Conquerer (IRE) (Conquering Hero) Chris Catlin Keen hold in rear, shaken up over 2f out, soon lost touch (tchd 66-1 in places and 100-1 in a place)
6 ran TIME 1m 11.70s (slow by 0.80s) Total SP 107% NON RUNNER: Certain Justice (USA) 1st OWNER: Beckhampton Stables Ltd BRED: Juddmonte Farms TRAINER: R Charlton 2nd OWNER: Invoshire Ltd 3rd OWNER: Miss C T Hickford TOTE WIN £2.20 PL £1.40, £1.60; Ex £4.20; CSF £6.58
ANALYSIS NOTEBOOK MY RACE NOTES A race full of disappointing older sorts and an unexposed three-year-old in Feet So Fast, who had it to do statistically in this sort of race.
BORDER SUBJECT was given an easy lead but still won as his liked, pricking his ears into the final furlong as he drew effortlessly clear. Breathing problems have been his handicap and it remains to be seen how effective he is in a big-field fast-run sprint which he could face on Sunday at Newmarket.
Feet So Fast had to engineer his own room to start a challenge but looked to sprawl on the loose ground and was not punished after his chance had gone. He is not the sort to carry big weights and with his high handicap mark is going to be difficult to place.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #136 on Mar 10, 2010, 11:44am »
BC With regards to Dunguib i am now quiet happy that the age stat doesnt really matter. However i am still open to listen to anyone who thinks otherwise.
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #137 on Mar 10, 2010, 2:09pm »
What I find disturbing is Paddy Powers offer to refund stakes on other selections if Dunguib wins. Apparently they did it last year with Cousin Vinney who finished 5th.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
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