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BC
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|  | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #90 on Dec 18, 2009, 4:37pm » | ![[Quote]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/quote.gif) ![[Modify]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/modify.gif) ![[Delete]](http://s1.images.proboards.com/buttons/delete.gif) |
Dec 18, 2009, 3:58pm, skyrack wrote:Was yesterday's 2.50 at Exeter a high class conditions race?
The winner was NOT the class horse, but was the consistent form horse.
Or Bleu (2nd) was second in terms of class to Pasco (3rd).
Certainly the impact of this race in terms of Class, needs to be taken with a big pinch of salt, as I have pointed out in above posts here. |
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I don't use the AR. (Do I sound like Mtoto?) From the way I am presently working, our selection was the class horse, based on guaging the race form.
Be lucky.
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johnd
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #91 on Dec 18, 2009, 6:52pm » | |
Dec 18, 2009, 3:58pm, skyrack wrote:Was yesterday's 2.50 at Exeter a high class conditions race?
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Certainly high class in terms of the horses that contested it. The top 3 were rated between 135 - 150, and had all been contesting valuable races.
The winner was NOT the class horse, but was the consistent form horse.
The winner was the class horse using the method as set out in the Roushayd example, (He'd recently finished 2nd in a 42k race), and despite what your earlier post of Fulham's tells you, that is a particularly valid way of reading class, as VDW showed with numerous examples in Systematic Betting.
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #92 on Dec 18, 2009, 9:36pm » | |
I'm a little confused,surely every top class horse race has within the field, higher and lower class animals.Why is it that the Epsom Derby the Grand National or the Cheltenham Gold Cup amongst other races and all with higher and lower class animals competeing, but never a tiny field, as far as i am aware.
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johnd
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #93 on Dec 18, 2009, 9:44pm » | |
Of course they do Arkle, and - given other factors - they will show their class by where in the field they finish.
Skyrack
I may have bamboozled you slightly. Looking at the link you provided, the post on TRF was by Hensman - but, as most on here will know, that is just one of Fulham's myriad identities. 
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skyrack
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #94 on Dec 19, 2009, 2:07am » | |
Thanks for you explanations.
Unfortunately, I don't have access to "Systematic Betting".
If VDW was not consistent in the terms he used, then that helps explain the myriad interpretations.
Maybe I am being simplistic, but for me the class of a horse is its ability = winnings/wins.
Cornas 2nd in 42k race cannot be considered as a valid way of reading class. It won nothing.
But it does show its CAPABILITY.
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mtoto
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #95 on Dec 19, 2009, 11:35am » | |
Unfortunately, I don't have access to "Systematic Betting".
If you e-mail me at mtoto44 that can be remedy in short order!
Be Lucky
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mtoto
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #96 on Dec 19, 2009, 11:42am » | |
Maybe I am being simplistic, but for me the class of a horse is its ability = winnings/wins.
Skyrack,
Yes that is being VERY simplistic. Just having a quick look at Prominate King and Baronet shows VDW didn't just take wins when looking at class. None of their wins showed they had the class to win their races!!
Be Lucky
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #97 on Dec 19, 2009, 9:38pm » | |
The Class of a Horse
"You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of race in which they compete. Most will be aquainted with the idea of looking for horses which are dropped in class. Often this is a race offering less prize money, but not necessarily so. The quality of horses engaged is more to the point. Horses which prove exceptional will as a rule be pitched higher in due time, but depending on the degree of uplift it can prove a formidable task."
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johnd
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #98 on Dec 21, 2009, 2:07am » | |
Yes BC, but that's a specific reference to horses being raised in class (As Desert Orchid was in this case) and it not proving too formidable a task.
There were a number of question marks against the 'quality' horse (Forgive 'N Forget) in this race, none of them to do with class.
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garstonf
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #99 on Jan 6, 2010, 12:15am » | |
Regarding the King George VI Chase VDW said that Desert Orchid’s last race performance was rated just 3lb below that of Forgive ‘N Forget’s.
Does anyone know what rating he is referring to and does anyone have the Official Ratings for this race?
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skyrack
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #100 on Jan 25, 2010, 10:48am » | |
Just wondering if anyone has ability ratings for the Cobnut race?
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #101 on Jan 25, 2010, 11:32am » | |
Jan 6, 2010, 12:15am, garstonf wrote:Regarding the King George VI Chase VDW said that Desert Orchid’s last race performance was rated just 3lb below that of Forgive ‘N Forget’s.
Does anyone know what rating he is referring to and does anyone have the Official Ratings for this race?
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Jan 25, 2010, 10:48am, skyrack wrote:| Just wondering if anyone has ability ratings for the Cobnut race? |
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Hi Garston & Skyrack,
Not sure there's anyone on this forum that can help (Johnd? Walter?).
Personally, apart from the Roushayd example through the RP website, I never did get around to the in depth analysis of the old examples.
Folks that may be able to help with those queries, (in particular, Fulham and Mtoto), can be found here:
http://uk-betting-tips.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?f=161
BC 
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Walter Pidgeon
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #102 on Jan 25, 2010, 2:17pm » | |
Just wondering if anyone has ability ratings for the Cobnut race?
...........................................................................
Im not sure the ability ratings are what that race was about BC... it was a seller or to quote mr vdw a scrubber race.He used it to show potential.
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #103 on Jan 26, 2010, 10:51pm » | |
There you go Skyrack, and Walter knows his stuff. Thanks WP.
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Bold Gait
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #104 on Jan 27, 2010, 1:01am » | |
A lot of the horses were maidens.
this was posted some time ago on a forum(Fulham I think?)
Secret Express, 9
Royal Inheritance, 7
The Old Fellow 7
I think these were the only ones with an ability rating.
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skyrack
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #105 on Jan 27, 2010, 11:35am » | |
Thx all
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les
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #106 on Jan 28, 2010, 12:28pm » | |
looking at a horse for the weekend and looking at who beat it into 2nd last 2 races and if it runs ,what price karabak on saturday?
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #107 on Feb 14, 2010, 3:37pm » | |
Discussions thread here.
An ideal place for thoughts and perhaps's !!
BC
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #108 on Feb 14, 2010, 6:31pm » | |
BC
With regards to Dunguib which i think is on both our short list for Cheltenham Festival, John Francome thinks the horse has got a problem with he's shins. I do'nt know if Francome is trying it on or not but to my mind any down hill racing will put pressure on the shins of any horse if it has problems in that area.I hope Francome is wrong in his judgement.
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #109 on Feb 14, 2010, 11:38pm » | |
Feb 14, 2010, 6:31pm, Arkle55 wrote:BC
With regards to Dunguib which i think is on both our short list for Cheltenham Festival, John Francome thinks the horse has got a problem with he's shins. I do'nt know if Francome is trying it on or not but to my mind any down hill racing will put pressure on the shins of any horse if it has problems in that area.I hope Francome is wrong in his judgement. |
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Yes Arkle - Dunguib is certainly on my radar. We'll need to have a closer look. What makes him think that then?
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #110 on Feb 15, 2010, 2:59am » | |
As my last few selections have gone tits up i thought i would do a bit of back checking. Class 2 and above with at least 2 or more selections in each race.
42 races
21 winners 50% strike rate
£253.46 proffit
Not bad, but that has taken about 4 months to acheive so hardly enough to live on, stakes would have to rise considerably to get any kind of a living wage, and that is if the same strike rate can be achieved.What a hard game this is, but i'm still very pleased with what i have achieved and the proffit's gained so far.
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oldtimer
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #111 on Feb 15, 2010, 7:09am » | |
Well done Arkle, nice to know someone is smart enough to turn a profit.
Oldtimer
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #112 on Feb 16, 2010, 10:03pm » | |
OT
Thank you
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #113 on Feb 16, 2010, 10:14pm » | |
BC
With regards to Dunguib, i have found a serious negative, 7-y-o have won the Supreme Novices only twice in the last 20 years.
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #114 on Feb 16, 2010, 11:37pm » | |
Feb 16, 2010, 10:14pm, Arkle55 wrote:BC
With regards to Dunguib, i have found a serious negative, 7-y-o have won the Supreme Novices only twice in the last 20 years. |
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I often hear that type of statistic mentioned. I can only say what I think, (and I may well be wrong, and probably am), but "so what"?
Perhaps it's as simple as the best novices have usually moved up by then.
Is it the best horse in the race on the day? That's all I'm interested in to be honest. However, I'm more concerned with your previous negative - possible shin problem.
BC
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #115 on Feb 19, 2010, 2:15pm » | |
I just posted this on the selections thread. But then, in view of what I'd written, I thought I better move it here!!
Feb 19, 2010, 1:59pm, oldtimer wrote:| You must have scared everybody off BC |
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LOL
I'm like that. I even scare myself sometimes.
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #116 on Feb 19, 2010, 6:51pm » | |
BC
Ai'nt know point in being a pirate if you ai'nt going to be scarey, arrrr jim lad.By the way i noticed you ai'nt got a parrot. I know this bloke down the market who knows this bloke from the Monty Python programe whos got this parrot. There ai'nt a lot of life in it but if you stick it on your shoulder i do'nt think anyone will notice.
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BC
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #117 on Feb 19, 2010, 7:10pm » | |
Feb 19, 2010, 6:51pm, Arkle55 wrote:BC
Ai'nt know point in being a pirate if you ai'nt going to be scarey, arrrr jim lad.By the way i noticed you ai'nt got a parrot. I know this bloke down the market who knows this bloke from the Monty Python programe whos got this parrot. There ai'nt a lot of life in it but if you stick it on your shoulder i do'nt think anyone will notice. |
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One for the kids...
Q: Why are pirates called pirates?
A: Because they arrrrrrrrr...
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Arkle55
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #118 on Feb 19, 2010, 9:53pm » | |
BC
I thought pirates said arrrrrr when they went to the dentist.
Or what does a pirate say when he's backed another loser arrrrr bo------cks i've done me silver again.
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les
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| | Re: VDW Discussion
« Reply #119 on Feb 24, 2010, 8:31pm » | |
thought and thought about a vdw quote ie not against much how would he quantify that and how would he guage who his horses beat i think he must have used his ability and consistencey figures ie
horse A beaten by horse B
horse A has a ability rating of say 120 and consistencey of 5
do you show your new rating as 5/120 or divide 120 by 5 and show it as 24?
have not used them as yet i,ll give it a go at cheltenham
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