Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #60 on Dec 17, 2009, 4:16am »
Racing may be slow, but work isn't. Here I am into the small hours for the third night running trying to hit all my "before Christmas" deadlines. What is it with having to have stuff "before Christmas"? Grrrrrrrrrr...
Anyway, for those who do have a bit of time, here is the post that Johnd is referring to (bottom of the page and top of the next):
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #61 on Dec 17, 2009, 4:36am »
[quote author=johnd board=vdw thread=546 post=12026 time=1261011310] "The class of the horse is not the same as the class they compete in" Using today's 2.50 at Exeter, as an example, I would give the race itself a class of 187 but give Cornas a class of 336 (using chase wins and not all wins - any views on that approach?). So, in this case, Cornas quite clearly is of a different class to the class it is competing in. This is also a small field of 5 runners. I go with Cornas being the clear selection here; but, interestingly, if it does win, that will reduce its class to 262.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #62 on Dec 17, 2009, 6:43am »
Hmm...
It seems I have been misinformed.
Betfair is showing Cornas' Ludlow win as worth £33,600 and both its wins for £40,383. Atthereaces shows £8,093 for both wins. Sporting Life lists the Ludlow race as £8,000 added and £5,010 penalty.
It seems as though betfair winning stats are misleading at best.
Anyway reverting back to the topic of class:
The five runners in the Exeter 2.50 have ability of 50, 62, 40, - , 46 for a race of class 187.
What class are these horses competing in? The race is worth 187 in terms of ability rating yet the top rated horse only has an an ability 62.
This seems to raise an issue of the reliability of the ability method.
Having said all this, I still go with Cornas: it has the best form, is not seriously outclassed, and has shown capability by coming 2nd by a neck in a 31k race (although I have not checked the class they were competing in...).
The top class horse, Pasco, is not showing consistent form on its last 3 outings. Or Bleu, the next best class, has always been beaten by Pasco and has not demonstrated any capability at this prize level.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #63 on Dec 17, 2009, 11:55am »
SKYRACK Do we know you from another forum under a different name.
You ask an interesting question, in your last post. WHAT CLASS ARE THESE HORSES COMPETING IN.Is the class higher or lower, i think that would be dependant of which race you are going to compare todays race to. I like to keep it simple and let the prize money tell me, but i could be wrong.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #64 on Dec 17, 2009, 1:08pm »
Hi Arkle55,
No you do not know me. This is my first foray into a racing forum.
I first came across VDW some 4 or so years ago, and was immediately impressed with the method. My first thought was that here was a method that, contrary to what the man himself said, could be implemented as a system.
I should say that the limits of my first-hand knowledge of VDW is limited to what I have managed to glean from the web. I have not bought any books or pamphlets, so I was very pleased to see some of the original articles in the archive here.
Regarding Class, and your above post, I too, am used to consider the winning prize money as the class of the race. But in this particular race the class of the horses competing are significantly different.
If Cornas wins today, its class or ability rating will move from 40 to 102 by beating other horses with a best class of 62 and where the value to the winner is £18,786. My instinct tells me this is likely a case of the exception proving the rule.
By the way, I don't see myself comparing this race to another, but of comparing all the competitors within this race.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #65 on Dec 17, 2009, 1:35pm »
Hiya Skyrack.
I'd say you should include both chase and hurdle ratings for a/r's (as VDW did), or you might get a false picture of a horse's class. In today's race the 3 main contenders are all dropping in class, with Cornas coming from the highest. His 2nd in a 34k race is the best recent form in the race from a prize money perspective, and he (arguably) improved on that the last time he ran. Add to that he is 12 & 22lb well-in (on official ratings) with his nearest rivals, and he really didn't ought to get beat. However he isn't a horse that wins very often, and he's far from certain to last home if the ground turns heavy, so at 4/5 he certainly won't be carrying any of my money.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #67 on Dec 17, 2009, 3:16pm »
Hi Skyrack welcome to the forum. Not been here much but it definately the best foum I've been on. Enough posts to keep you sane plus plenty of helpful and knowlegable members.
I'm pretty new to racing myself, not a big stake man but after a while searching I think I have finally found a selection process that I am happy with. (just trying to get my head around vba and automating the process).
Hopefully in 2010 it will be better than 2009. For me its now about being selective in my betting approach if your unsure for any reason then dont back it.
I prefer to use the prize money from the race type (chase etc) in the race you mention Cornas is definately the best horse and should win
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #69 on Dec 18, 2009, 5:27am »
The archive contains another similar "quote": "The Class in which they run, and the Class in which they compete".
Both may be mis-quotes from memory rather than source. But this quote makes a useful distinction, I think, between the rating of a race and the rating of entries in that race.
Yesterday's 2.50 at Exeter (see above posts) is a good example. The race itself has a rating of 187 whereas the field is competing in a class of 62. If this is recognised, then in terms of assessing capability, 187 is irrelevant and performance with class 62 competitors is sufficient.
The other side of the coin would be where a higher class horse runs in a lower class race. In this case, unless it can be ruled out as a contender, the benchmark for capability assessment should be that of the higher class horse rather than the lower class of the race itself.
"Most will be acquainted with the idea of looking for horses which are dropped in class. Often this is a race offering less prize money, but not necessarily so. The quality of horses engaged is more to the point. "
And here is something I found on another forum, which sums up my view on this:
"VDW used two measures, as Mtoto says. His primary one was the value of the race in terms of win prize money, his secondary one a measure of the class of horses involved. (In this latter respect VDW's first ever example, the 1978 Erin won by Prominent King is worth study. Prominent King's last race prior to the Erin was a very lowly affair if looked at from the perspective of win prize money - a class 6. But when looked at from the perspective of the class of the runners, especially the winner, a different picture emerges.) " - http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-ra....70309&start=315
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #71 on Dec 18, 2009, 9:21am »
Thanks johnd - I couldn't see it for looking, as they say!
"You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of race in which they compete. Most will be aquainted with the idea of looking for horses which are dropped in class. Often this is a race offering less prize money, but not necessarily so. The quality of horses engaged is more to the point. Horses which prove exceptional will as a rule be pitched higher in due time, but depending on the degree of uplift it can prove a formidable task."
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Early in his writings (Letter 35, TGY) VDW warned us of small field conditions races in some depth, and told us "There is a clear message in the above, and it should enable the astute punter to prosper". Read it as many times as you like, it's a clear warning that that better horses aren't always trying too hard - unless the prize is big enough.
I read the paragraphs around that part of the article, and take it to mean that the classier horses in the race will be better off weight wise than they would be in a handicap, and are therefore even more likely to win.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
But the question he posed was "Why risk the consequences?", which, as there is no downside for the class horse, must be referring to the smaller fry.
As I read it, the consequesnces are for the non class horses who are going to be penalised by the handicapper for running close to classier horses, due to the race not being run 'true'.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #78 on Dec 18, 2009, 2:23pm »
From TGY; Letter 35 - A method not rules needed;
"Any serious punter must have noticed the frequency with which high class conditions races result in small fields, often with only 2 or 3 runners. This is not surprising when the implications are considered. The entrance and acceptance fees may involve £50, which is to all intents is thrown down the drain for the lower class horse, but the more important factor is why risk the consequences involved. Most of these small field races are not true run and for the lower class horse the risk is being allotted more than a fair weight in handicap company after finishing within a few lengths of a class horse. Moreover, there is the fact that they meet on only pounds different in the condition race, but in a handicap it could be a couple of stone. Ther is a clear message in the above, and it should help the astute punter to prosper".
As I read it, the consequesnces are for the non class horses who are going to be penalised by the handicapper for running close to classier horses, due to the race not being run 'true'.
So why risk them? What is it about these races that attracts the lower class horse?
As I read it, the consequesnces are for the non class horses who are going to be penalised by the handicapper for running close to classier horses, due to the race not being run 'true'.
So why risk them? What is it about these races that attracts the lower class horse?
My guess would be prize money - even placed prize money.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #82 on Dec 18, 2009, 3:36pm »
Quote from P Hobbs, trainer of Or Bleu; from yeterday's RP; "After his fall at Newbury, the main thing he needs is a confidence booster, It's very important he has a nice run around, so although he is badly in at the weights and we risk ruining his handicap mark, we have to take the risk".
Or that many of the better horses in these races are unfit, or out of form? Why else would they be running in them?
Maybe. But with VDW, we are talking about analysing races where the payouts are relatively large.
The point I think VDW is making is that very few risk it. And what I'm saying is the lower class ones that do are after the placed prize money. If we think our c/f horse is unfit, surely we don't back against him, we simply leave the race alone, no?
For the astute punter to profit, from what you've said, he'd have to back against the class horse, considering him potentially out of form. That doesn't feel right in the context of VDW.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Quote from P Hobbs, trainer of Or Bleu; from yeterday's RP; "After his fall at Newbury, the main thing he needs is a confidence booster, It's very important he has a nice run around, so although he is badly in at the weights and we risk ruining his handicap mark, we have to take the risk".
Yes, but Or Bleu wasn't the class horse. Only third if memory serves. The class horse won the race. Perhaps I'm missing your point.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #87 on Dec 18, 2009, 3:50pm »
The astute punter doesn't have to have a bet in that particular race, but he can still profit from the knowledge gleaned. There are dozens of these small field conditions races (not to be confused with pattern races) every season, and many of the better horses in them are 'out for a spin', as Or Bleu was yesterday, and Previs was at Lingfield.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #89 on Dec 18, 2009, 3:58pm »
Was yesterday's 2.50 at Exeter a high class conditions race? The winner was NOT the class horse, but was the consistent form horse. Or Bleu (2nd) was second in terms of class to Pasco (3rd).
Certainly the impact of this race in terms of Class, needs to be taken with a big pinch of salt, as I have pointed out in above posts here.
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