Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #34 on Nov 22, 2009, 1:02am »
A poor race for the money, in poor conditions, and one I'd only glance at normally ( but one I've spent 30 mins appraising and an hour typing up, so let's hope it's worth it).
Hello Bud Class horse in race, highly consistent in the right circumstances. Though 11yo, didn't start NH racing until 3 yrs ago, and has won 7 of his 14 races in the last 2 seasons, though has pulled up twice injured. Won 114k last April, and showed enough to suggest he can win this when 3rd in 31k last week - thrives on races close together.
Irish Raptor 2nd on class, though inconsistent. His best 2 performances have come over this course (1st and 2nd in the same 68k) but over a shorter distance. Though he's won over this trip at Cheltenham, it was a slowly run race against poor opposition, and he's failed every time since when facing a similar stamina test to this.
Palypso De Creek Probably 3rd on class, after allowing for French prize money being more generous. Difficult to weigh up without a better knowledge of French form than I possess, though fairly consistent given a trip. Won 74k gd3 receiving lumps of weight, but apparently outclassed in subsequent 98k off new rating. Official Handicapper has much better line on his form than I do, and rates him 132. Looks to be thrown in at the deep end (apparently to get a mark to get him in the National) but, with no experience of these fences or the faster pace of British races, he wouldn't be carrying my money.
Vic Venturi Consistent relative to this field, but very poor win record until finding small conditions race lto he could hardly lose. Safe jumper which is essential round here, but a one-paced grinder. It'll be a poor race if he wins, and surely a false favourite.
Idle Talk Former good chaser, but hasn't won for 3 years. Distant 4th in this last season in what was probably a better race (has 3lb more to carry), but that came only 3 weeks after a much better run at Carlisle. Goes well fresh, and has a better chance than most if HB disappoints, though heavy ground would be against him.
Keenan's Future Long way short on class so far, but steadily improving, and ran a career best lto when 3rd in Summer National. can't have him on this ground thiough, as he's obviously been placed to avoid winter ground previously.
Hello Bud looks much the likeliest winner imo, and at around 5/1 should be worth a bet, but with no experience of a quirky course looks a long way from a good thing.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #35 on Nov 22, 2009, 11:47am »
Full analysis under my normal posting.
I’m very wary about this race with Palypso De Creek being such an unknown character, but even removing him from the mix does not make it that much easier, as the Irish challenger Vic Venturi is another that could be arriving with an inflated reputation on what he’s actually achieved so far. So that rather leaves it between the Twiston-Davies pair Hello Bud and Irish Raptor, plus perhaps Idle Talk. Purely on ability, Hello Bud is the better horse, but Irish Raptor is proven over the Aintree fences. However, I have to go with Hello Bud as my c/f horse and the most likely winner.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #36 on Nov 22, 2009, 1:33pm »
I do like hello bud and followed him last season culminating in a big win at Ayr. He ran well lto but did that take a lot out of him? I have to agree about a number of unknowns but I'm hopeful of a big run by Irish raptor. Yard going well at the moment. Good luck if playing
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #37 on Nov 22, 2009, 2:05pm »
Not my type of race this one. But I had a look so I could join the party, and came to the same conclusions. If forced to bet, I'd dutch Hello Bud and Irish Raptor (7/2 and 7/1 currently) with a preference for the former.
You have to dig back a bit to see why Vic Venturi is top weight and I cant understand why he's forecast favourite and current joint favourite. Neither can I see him carrying that big weight to victory today.
Of the rest, Keenans Choice and Idle Talk are carrying less of a burden. Too many questions for my liking.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
You have to dig back a bit to see why Vic Venturi is top weight and I cant understand why he's forecast favourite and current joint favourite. Neither can I see him carrying that big weight to victory today.
BC
"As I was writing that, I almost wrote "so the best thing to do now is back it heavily".
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #42 on Nov 22, 2009, 3:56pm »
He won well depsite the big weight. I think we can all take comfort in the fact that this was probably not a race to bet in. So hopefully no one lost anything.
I look forward to the next race review - suggestions welcomed
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #43 on Dec 3, 2009, 2:11am »
Sorry Garston. I meant to come back to this (i.e. the discussion on direct form/collateral form) at some point and forgot all about it.
Work work work.
It's a well thought through reply, and I think the first half certainly goes along with where I am with it all. A good example was in todays 1245 at Fairyhouse. The red hot favourite, Dunguib, had comfortably beaten his two main rivals, (direct form), and the other 3 were obvious outsiders. There was nothing else in the race, which made the 4/11 (SP 3/10) look a bargain!
Not so sure I can agree with the second half so readily, but this may simply be that your form reading ability is far superior to mine, which I am quite happy to admit anyway. However, this brings me to thinking that really, the Van der Wheil method does seem to require that little extra in terms of form reading - a little extra I fear I shall never have the time to develop.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #44 on Dec 3, 2009, 2:50am »
I noticed a post from Fulham on UKBT the other day, where he comments on the VDW selections table. I am not a member of UKBT and don't really want to join another forum (3's quite enough). However, as he probably looks in, I thought I'd just reply here.
"...poster 3 - has given 9 winning bets from 15 selections (12 singles and 3 books) - 60%. 7 wins from his 12 single bets (58%) - but every one odds on. None of the three odds against single selections won"...
I have no problem with your analysis at all. Actually, I thought the whole piece was spot on.
"Poster 3" is obviously me.
The reason for me bringing this up is really to briefly touch on the odds.
If we assume for a second... dare to dream... have "faith"... that an 80% SR is possible, then provided we obtain larger odds that 1/4, we will make a profit.
10 bets (with an 80%SR) at average odds of only 1/3 ensures a 0.6 point profit.
10 bets (with an 80%SR) at average odds of 1/2 ensures a 2 point profit.
10 bets (with an 80%SR) at average odds of 4/6 ensures a 3.3 point profit.
Did Van der Wheil ever say that his 80%SR or the 29 from 32 winning “wagers” were from single odds against bets? Of course, the implication is there in how he writes about the races that are looked at. But there is enough written elsewhere (on ‘dutching’ and ‘value’) for me to consider both dutching and taking odds-on bets.
A bit of “food for thought” for some perhaps.
As mentioned in the post to Garston, my own form reading ability is nowhere near the level of most of my fellow contributors, so to get winners, I need to find an alternative.
I post these selections of mine under the VDW selections thread. But from what I am beginning to realise, I doubt many would have been actual VDW selections.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #47 on Dec 3, 2009, 12:31pm »
Of course, the trick is getting an 80%SR.
BC,
Personally I would have thought the biggest "trick" would have been finding a settler to agree ... 10 bets (with an 80%SR) at average odds of 1/2 ensures a 20 point profit. It maybe my maths but I make it a 2 point profit
Personally I would have thought the biggest "trick" would have been finding a settler to agree ... 10 bets (with an 80%SR) at average odds of 1/2 ensures a 20 point profit. It maybe my maths but I make it a 2 point profit
Be Lucky
Aw gawd... it's my maths Mtoto!! 'O' level grade B achieved in 1976.
I think in 10's (hence the tables use £10 stakes) and often forget to divide by 10 when writing things for the board, where points are more commonly used.
I shall go back and correct my dodgy maths, although the point I was trying to make remains the same. A profit is achievable even on these skinny margins... IF we can match the desired SR.
Thanks for pointing it out.
BC
Edited to correct dodgy spelling. So add English to Maths on my school report: "could do better".
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
BC I'm amazed you feel you have to justify yourself to someone who can only scrape up 1 selection in 6 months of trying?
Hi Johnd,
I'm OK with what Fulham wrote. I would like to select bigger priced selections, but I just don't think you can have both high SR AND big odds. Not consistently and long term.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #51 on Dec 4, 2009, 9:39am »
With heavy rain forecast, it's anybody's guess what the going might be; though there's a couple of decent races at Southwell, if anyone wants to have a go. The At The Races website has a function where you can compare horses that have met, Owls.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #54 on Dec 5, 2009, 1:09am »
Les
No - it's easier if a horse has form on the track, but soft ground form translates well to Fibresand. All the other AW tracks are closer to fast ground - generally,the longer it's been laid, the faster it rides. The other thing to watch out for is the kick-back on Fibresand, which can come as quite a shock to a hold-up horse, first time on the track.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #55 on Dec 5, 2009, 2:05am »
Southwell 1.50.
Confuchias Class horse in race, but inconsistent. Ran well 2 ago, btn 1.5l in 28k 7f race (Felday just in front, but 3lb better off). No chance lto against hotpot when 11lb wrong in weights. Live danger, but better over 7f, and might not have speed for this.
Turn On The Style 2nd on class, but inconsistent, Nothing in 2 runs since break to suggest he can win this and has been in much better form prior to his previous wins. Felday 3rd on class (based on lto 3rd in 25k). Consistent and improving - can be forgiven penultimate run as it was only 7 days after previous win, which he's never been asked to do before. (Ran under 7lb penalty). Slightly better off with Felday, but more likely to benefit from drop back to 6f. Never raced on surface before, but acts on softish ground and races up with pace, so shouldn't have a problem.
Ingleby Arch Consistent and improving. Won 9k by 1.25l lto over c/d. 6th win over this c/d, but hasn't won in this class for over 3 years. 2lbs less to carry, but in a 6lb higher race which might just prove too much for him.
Esprit De Midas Highly consistent and improving, (Can be forgiven penultimate run as it came after a break and he raced too keenly). However, he's also returning from a break again, and though he carries 11lb less, he's also up 21lbs in class, which should more than he can handle, at present.
Felday looks much the likeliest winner, though Confuchias could prove a danger.
I did look at the 2.20, and Lucky Punt looks the likeliest winner, but the trip's not ideal for him, and Luberon could well be the one to take advantage.
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #57 on Dec 5, 2009, 2:36pm »
As last time, this isn't my sort of race. But I had a look and if pushed would dutch with the two market leaders, Felday and Ingelby Arch. Therefore, my advice would be to lump on one of the others!
I can find nothing I like today at all. Looking forward to seeing the Tingle Creek though. Will be interesting to see how Well Chief performs against Big Zeb, but the whole field could potentially be thereabouts at the last. Which of course means they'll be strung out like the washing.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #59 on Dec 17, 2009, 1:55am »
As racing's so slow at the moment, here's some food for thought for you guys: What did VDW really mean when he said "The class of the horse is not the same as the class they compete in"? Many have construed it to be that a horse running well in 20k race against a horse that has run well in a 50k race previously is undoubtedly better class than the race shows - indeed, it's a basic tenet of how most of the 'High Priests' of the method believed he worked, and have used VDW's mentions of such as Lesley Anne and Silver Buck to support that thinking. Not surprisingly, I disagree. Early in his writings (Letter 35, TGY) VDW warned us of small field conditions races in some depth, and told us "There is a clear message in the above, and it should enable the astute punter to prosper". Read it as many times as you like, it's a clear warning that that better horses aren't always trying too hard - unless the prize is big enough. I remember having a discussion with Guest (a while ago now) on this article, and he was adamant that it was indicating improvers, but I was convinced then - and I'm even more certain now - that the message was not to take form from such races too literally. The reason I'm raising the point at this stage is a recent discussion I had with BlackCat, regarding Presvis. which illustrates the point perfectly. A proven gp1 horse, with an a/r of 1820, and winner of a 718k race running 2nd in a 22k lstd - do you now believe that his conqueror (Tranquil Tiger) is better than a 1820 a/r horse, or are you prepared to rethink what he meant by class they compete in?
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