VDW Discussion « Thread Started on Oct 20, 2009, 2:51pm »
I thought I would start this thread as a place purely for the discussion of the method generally.This will hopefully help keep the "pre race selections" clearer for BC,when it comes to the updating of records.
Maybe you could move some of the posts over BC from the other thread,to get things going.
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #1 on Oct 20, 2009, 4:09pm »
Well done MIS.
I had to laugh... you remind me of... er... me!!
We must put everything in the right box. On the old Gummy site, I started a thread for Consistency. A thread for Ability. A thread for Probability. A thread for Capability!! You'd have loved it.
Anyway, although it would be easier for me to see the selections if discussion was here, don't worry if it continues on the selections thread... it'll be OK. Thanks for the thought.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Jan 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 5,628 Location: Scotland
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #3 on Oct 24, 2009, 10:14am »
Oct 20, 2009, 2:35pm, Walter Pidgeon wrote:For what its worth. Ive always been wary of the claims made by vdw in his writings... it`s unhealthy to have people thinking along those sort of lines about you. It`s little wonder he`s had fanatics parking on his doorstep talk about making a rod for your own back. He was a bit of a hypocrite as well going public claiming an 80% s/r then mentioning his associates who all apparently had one thing in common.... "They all went out of their way to shun publicity". Pity he did`nt take a leaf out of their book eh?.
Walter Though there's a lot of truth in the above, thank God he made his thoughts public and didn't hive them off to a private forum like some of the less beneficient lowlifes that ruined Gummy's. What would we be discussing now?
I'd better put these up early, just in case Fulham has another lucky stab in the dark, and the forum numpty accuses me of copying.
DON 2.20 CHEVETON NEWB 2.35 TASTAHIL ................................................................................ Ive put this on here as i dont want to confuse the issue on ther thread with the couple of selections i have mentioned later. The sad thing for me JD is that he began to make his thoughts known over 30 years ago now but still people argue about the right`s or wrongs of it.I think it`s an interesting subject but would`nt get hung up on it like some boys ...ok give it a shot but you dont linger with something that`s no working for you?. Im no trying to be nasty but i honestly dont know whether to admire or pity some of the vdw boys ive come across in my 10 yrs on the net?. Alfie Sherrin is my bet on the horses today 5/2 was taken last night ...very rarely bet over the jumps thesedays but i dont mind having a serious pop when i fancy one strongly.In the sprint at Donny ive had a wee punt on Fullandby e/w at 25/1 to bounce back to some sort of form on this softer ground.The draw in the sprints yesterday was middle to low he`s drawn nearly highest of all in (21) so you pays your money and takes your chance.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #4 on Nov 5, 2009, 10:55am »
Hi I have just received a letter off a chap called Colin Davey, saying he is a VDW expert and is selling his book for £7, has anyone ever read it? Downey
Hi I have just received a letter off a chap called Colin Davey, saying he is a VDW expert and is selling his book for £7, has anyone ever read it? Downey
"a chap called Colin Davey..."
I seem to remember reading that he was the reason Gummy started his board in the first place.
There's plenty about Colin on the Internet. You'll even find a thread in the archive (started by TC). Even if he had cracked VDW, he won't be telling you for £7, that's for sure.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #8 on Nov 14, 2009, 12:08am »
I had planned to look at the examples in order one day. But someone mentioned something the other day on UKBT about the RP having the Roushayd example form, so I thought I'd take a look.
To be honest, I was surprised by what I found, and now have to agree with Johnd that the Van der Wheil method does not take collateral form into account.
R was beaten by Billet and Rambo Dancer LTO. In that race, Vouchsafe was behind R, but "eased when beaten 1f out".
V then came out to win a race that contained B and RD.
The weights between R and V were fairly similar (3lbs difference I think it was).
VDW's point is that R had marked his card and shown improvement in higher class, but surely V was now a contender? Yet is dismissed by VDW as follows: "He is now going up in class again and does not have the measure of Roushayd".
Make of that what you will. But I now realise that my "VDW selections" are certainly not "VDW selections"!!
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
BC I think you will find collateroll form does stand up, but its knowing when.
Hi Arkle,
Yes, I agree with you, and I wasn't for a second saying otherwise. I'm getting quite comfortable with collateral form, which is the primary factor I'm using when making selections.
All I'm saying is that as far as I can see from the Roushayd form, VDW did not appear to use it, as the points I made about Vouchsafe seem to indicate.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #11 on Nov 15, 2009, 2:35am »
BC
For the benefit of anyone new to the game, what you are describing with Roushayd and Vouchsafe is direct form and not collateral form. Collateral form (indirect form) is where two horses are meeting for the first time but both have had separate races against a third horse previously, therefore enabling an indirect comparison.
In the Northern Dancer Roushayd carried 9-9 and finished ahead of Vouchsafe who carried 8-3. Later, in the Old Newton Cup Roushayd carried 9-10 and Vouchsafe 8-11, making Vouchsafe 7lb worse off at the weights. Direct form clearly showed that Roushayd would still finish ahead of Vouchsafe.
In the Bessborough Vouchsafe was meeting Island Set, Rambo Dancer and Freeby’s Preacher on the same terms, while Billet was worse off because of the 7lb penalty. Here Vouchsafe reversed the form of the Northern Dancer but you would be wrong to think that he was a VDW bet, let alone his selection. It is highly unlikely he even considered the race.
For the benefit of anyone new to the game, what you are describing with Roushayd and Vouchsafe is direct form and not collateral form. Collateral form (indirect form) is where two horses are meeting for the first time but both have had separate races against a third horse previously, therefore enabling an indirect comparison.
Direct Form: I have learned something I didn't know, and the term "collareral" now makes sense. Thanks.
Quote:
In the Northern Dancer Roushayd carried 9-9 and finished ahead of Vouchsafe who carried 8-3. Later, in the Old Newton Cup Roushayd carried 9-10 and Vouchsafe 8-11, making Vouchsafe 7lb worse off at the weights. Direct form clearly showed that Roushayd would still finish ahead of Vouchsafe.
However, collateral form, by my new understanding (i.e. the form showed against Rambo Dancer) indicates that Vouchsafe had possibly improved, no?
Thus, to me, your statement: "Direct form clearly showed etc" is superceded by the improvement against Rambo Dancer.
Quote:
In the Bessborough Vouchsafe was meeting Island Set, Rambo Dancer and Freeby’s Preacher on the same terms, while Billet was worse off because of the 7lb penalty. Here Vouchsafe reversed the form of the Northern Dancer...
The point I was making is that Vouchsafe was eased in the Northern Dancer against opposition he would then go on to beat next time out, and in Rambo Dancer's case, on the same terms. Vouchsafe therefore appears to have improved past a horse that beat Roushayd. So to my way of thinking would then be impossible to rule out.
Quote:
...but you would be wrong to think that he was a VDW bet, let alone his selection. It is highly unlikely he even considered the race.
I didn't consider the possibility.
So, GF, in your opinion, does the VDW method encompass direct and/or collateral form?
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #13 on Nov 16, 2009, 2:42pm »
BC
An example of direct form that springs to mind is the King George VI Chase Dec 26, 1985. Here the class horse Burrough Hill Lad is left alone because it was not a form horse. This leaves the next on class, the form horse Wayward Lad. Last time out Wayward Lad was beaten 1/2l by Earls Brig who received 8lb. Now at level weights, true form suggests that Wayward Lad should beat Earls Brig by 14l (using split seconds 2lb per length as the guide). The distance was in fact just over 12l. On the other hand a year later in the Feltham Novice Chase Dec 26, 1986, the class form horse Cavvies Clown was left alone. On his penultimate run he had been beaten 2 1/2l by Aherlow at level weights. Now with Aherlow receiving 7lb that distance should become 6l. In the Feltham, Cavvies Clown fell and only two finished. Note that it was Wayward Lad’s and Aherlow’s most recent run where direct form was considered. This was also the case with Roushayd. So for me VDW definitely considered direct form but he would also say that form is just ONE of the factors when considering potential bets. I cannot think of any examples where collateral form came into play but this type of form is open to many interpretations. Horse A beats B by 2l at level weights. Next time out B beats C by 2l at level weights. Horse A should now beat C by 4l. But now consider this; Horse A was favourite and B second favourite. Next time out B was 20/1 and C was favourite. The situation now is not so clear.
Moving on the question of Vouchsafe’s apparent improvement in the Bessborough. It can be seen that the first and second favourites, Billet and Island Set, made no show so did not reproduce the form shown in the Northern Dancer. The third favourite Plymouth Hoe, beaten only about 1l, was beaten 6l last time out whilst being clearly unfit and there is nothing to suggest he was fit enough this time. Stavordale, who finished third beaten just over a neck, was making his seasonal bow and was surely not fully wound up with a starting price of 25/1. This just leaves Rambo Dancer, beaten a neck, as the only piece of evidence that Vouchsafe had improved. Now consider the pace. The race was 2.7 seconds slower than standard and this figure was the slowest of all the 6 races on the card. Compare this to the Northern Dancer which was the fastest on the card. Add to this the fact that Rambo Dancer’s speed figure was 70 in the Northern Dancer and only 48 in the Bessborough. Compare also his style of running in both races and it is clear that Rambo Dancer did not run up to the same form shown in the Northern Dancer. So, on the whole there is no real evidence that Vouchsafe had improved from the Northern Dancer, therefore still leaving him something to find over Roushayd. Finally, in closing, I would say that recent direct form should always take precedence over collateral form; after all it is real evidence.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #16 on Nov 16, 2009, 9:08pm »
Garston
I'd suggest that Rambo Dancer was ridden with restraint in the Bessborough because he hadn't lasted home for more positive tactics in the Northern Dancer. Little surprise that he was dropped 2f for his next race (a 26k) which he won, which also makes it hard to swallow that he was 'out of form' in the middle one?
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #17 on Nov 17, 2009, 1:35am »
Johnd
I am not suggesting that Rambo Dancer was out of form in the Bessborough, merely that the level of form shown was less than that shown in the Northern Dancer. True he won next time out but you have to consider that he was dropping 10lb in class against that opposition. Once again the race was slow in comparison with the rest of the card with only a 2-y-o maiden filly’s race being slower.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #18 on Nov 17, 2009, 7:21am »
Garston
Forgive my broken English, but isn't being 'below form' the same as being 'out of form'? Isn't the truth of the matter that Rambo Dancer simply didn't stay in the Northern Dancer, a race run at a searching pace on much slower ground than that of the Bessborough? Considering the horse never won in 3 attempts at the distance (He was again held up for his subsequent12f try at Ascot) yet went on to win 10f races in the States - even up to gp2 level - I'd suggest it's far easier to believe his form (and that of others in the Northern Dancer) ties down to factors VDW pointed to directly, rather than those which require a number of assumptions.
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #20 on Nov 18, 2009, 2:47am »
Johnd
According to Split Second there was little difference in the going at the two meetings. For me it was not the pace and distance that found Rambo Dancer out. The real problem is that he was a horse with a very good cruising speed but lacked a turn of foot and this type of horse needs everything to go right for them to win their race. Now the question of form. I’ll use Rambo Dancer as an example. Below is his record for the season (earliest first).
Class Pos Won/btn by SF C37___Fell after 2f C27___2__nk_____35 C9____1__3l_____48 C227__4__4 1/2l__70 C116__2__nk_____48 (Vouchsafe won sf34) C265__1__s.h____78 C299__5__3 3/4l___80 C80___2__1l______0 C81___9__o15 1/2l_- C279__6__15 1/2l__51
Now which is the best performance? From a VDW point of view it must be the C299 Magnet Cup. From a speed figure point of view this is also his best performance. If this is the case, then in all the other races he ran below this form. Below form = out of form. I don’t think so! Only in his last race, would I say the horse was out of form.
Below is Vouchsafe’s record for the season.
Class Pos Won/btn by SF C50___2__s.h____15 C34___5__3 3/4l__42 C227__7__o9 1/2l__- (45 at most) C116__1__nk_____34 C170__3__8l_____49
Which is the best performance from a VDW point of view? The C227 Northern Dancer? Speed figures say the C170 Old Newton Cup. I would have Vouchsafe as being out of form in the Northern Dancer but then I’m not VDW. How would VDW view the C116 Bessborough? A decline in form or improvement?
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #21 on Nov 18, 2009, 10:17am »
Garston
I'll concede the going may not have been as different as the official description suggests - the Sporting Life view also supports this. However, what I cannot have is this idea of a progressive young horse bouncing in and out of form (Not necessarily yours. I might add, but certainly the refuge of many who can't make the pieces fit otherwise). Michael Stoute wouldn't have many 4yo maidens in his stable, and certainly none that didn't have the potential to be a great deal better. In my view, Rambo Dancer progressed with every race of his 4yo careeer, right up until his disappointing soft ground run at York in his 9th race of the season. If you accept that - a pattern followed by thousands of horses yearly as they grow to maturity - then the only real differences were caused by the circumstances met on the day. Nothing in RD's form suggests otherwise imo, and it is clear from his form that he was a better horse over 10f, failing at 12f even when drop markedly in class, yet progressing through each rise in class at 10f even though continually raised. Horses do not run on rails, and it's my firm conviction that it's pointless judging one horse against another (directly or collaterally) without taking the circumstances of each individual race into account. Vouchsafe was a different kettle of fish, being a 6yo and probably in decline. Fwiw, I would have his Northern Dancer run as his best of the season
Joined: Mar 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 790 Location: Bedfordshire
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #22 on Nov 19, 2009, 2:56am »
I feel like I've just followed the notice on a fireworks box:
"Light the blue touchpaper and stand well back"!!
Seriously though, reading the exchanges between Johnd and GarstonF, even though they may hold differing opinions and draw different conclusions, to me, their level of knowledge and understanding is quite astounding.
The same is true of a few others I could name, both on here and elsewhere, and I have to admit that I fall into the strictly amateur ranks by comparison.
"It is also helpful to see which horse can't lose rather than which can win. The first doubt should be enough to leave well alone". UWF20 "We are looking for a Ferrari racing a Mini where the Mini has a flat tyre" CD
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #28 on Nov 21, 2009, 4:22am »
I think I have only put one race up in my life on any forum luckily I gave the winner. Today you are going to be disappointed.
Asc G 2,35 56k G2 Hdle 19.5f class 1
2109-4 Lough Derg 21 D E Pipe 9-11-8 Richard Johnson 160 143 167 20 24 7/1 71101- Time For Rupert 232 P R Webber 5-11-4 W T Kennedy 145 156 158 13 34 50/1 111- Zaynar 253 N J Henderson 4-11-4 Andrew Tinkler 154 164 164 26 68 11/2 21124- Karabak 232 A King 6-11-2 A P McCoy 153 145 168 6 57 13/8F 1/3F-0 Elusive Dream 28 P F Nicholls 8-11-0 Christian Williams 155 151 169 14 18 22/1 23460- Katchit 231 A King 6-11-0 Robert Thornton 160 171 176 47 96 10/1 1169-2 Red Moloney 34 J Howard Johnson 5-11-0 Denis O'Regan 142 160 160 5 12 11/8F 3445-4 Straw Bear 17 N J Gifford 8-11-0 Liam Treadwell 154 127 166 31 6
Betting Forecast: 11/8 Zaynar, 3/1 Karabak, 9/2 Katchit, 12/1 Elusive Dream, 16/1 Lough Derg, 16/1 Time For Rupert, 16/1 Red Moloney, 16/1 Straw Bear
Last 6 columns are OR, TS, RPR, Ability, Class lto, SP lto.
First look for the horse with the best form. Katchit has the highest class lto 96k when 10/1 but the form is down the field so move to the next highest which is Zaynar 68k when 11/2 and he won. This should be the horse with the best form. Checking the form we see he won the Triumph Hurdle and you would have thought the Champion Hurdle would be his target this time. However with Punjabi and Binocular in the stable the trainer seems to have other plans for Zaynar. Continuing with his form we see he has already won at Ascot and there is nothing in his running style to suggest he won’t get this distance. Official ratings show this horse has 10lb to find on Katchit and this is too much when you consider he might not be fully wound up.
Next horse to look at is the one with the highest ability. This is Katchit with an ability rating of 47 (measured in k not c, i.e. 1000’s not 100’s). Winner of the Champion Hurdle in 2008, this horse has been consistently campaigned over 2m and ran poorly last time out when running over this distance for the first time. His recent form suggests that for some reason the trainer has been unable to get this horse back to peak fitness. When this happens sometimes all you can do is give the horse a rest and start the training cycle all over again. But this was never going to happen with the campaign already mapped out and a Champion Hurdle to defend. (I hope the trainer isn’t reading this). However, this horse does run well after a layoff and the new tactic of starting at a greater distance may help the horse even though the evidence of the form book suggests the course and distance will be against. Note that all figures show this horse to have an advantage if he can reproduce his best form.
The next horse I look at is the second on ability which is Straw Bear. This horse has not won for nearly two years and has switched to chasing. On the evidence so far his future in that field does not look promising. Poor run last time out in a Novice Chase shows him to be out of form. No chance in this today.
All that is left now is the 3 most consistent, one of which has already been covered. Time For Rupert sprang a surprise last time out winning a Listed Handicap Hurdle at Aintree over 3m 1/2f. This horse has far too much to find here and has no chance.
Finally, we are left with Karabak. Good performance when winning over course and distance in Novice Hurdle last January. Prior to this won class 2 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham resulting in the half penalty today. Last 2 runs have been in Grade 1 Novice company and it looks as if he will be contending the staying hurdles this season so this is the right race to make his seasonal bow.
There is nothing here, I can see, that represents a good betting opportunity. A look at the betting forecast shows this should be between the first 3 but they are all making their seasonal debut. So making a book between these is probably something VDW would not even recommend.
If you had followed this same procedure last Saturday you would NOT have found the winners of the two big races Galant Nuit and Tranquil Sea. I’m afraid I won’t be around to answer any queries today (Saturday).
Re: VDW Discussion « Reply #29 on Nov 21, 2009, 11:14am »
Thanks for that, Garston, I wouldn't think we're all that far apart on this race. My view:
Katchit Class horse in the race, though not consistent. Improved throughout season 3 years ago to win Triumph, and again 2 seasons since to win Champion Hurdle. Disappointed last season, though Champion Hurdle 5th still rates better form than anything shown by the others. Trainer swears he has him in better form this year, but he'd need to be, as nowhere did he show he might have the speed to win this on genuine good ground.
Zaynar 2nd in on class. Highly consistent and improved all last season, culminating in win in 68k race at Cheltenham. However, that was a race restricted to 4yo, and would generally fall 10/12lbs short of top class all-aged form. Nothing suggests he won't improve again this season, and the extra 2f won't do him any harm at all.
Karabak 3rd on class (by virtue of his close 2nd in 68k). Highly consistent and improving. Has won over c/d, but in much lower class. However, everything about how this horse was placed suggests he is a stayer in the making and, as Nicky Henderson points out in today's RP, the Ascot hurdle course isn't a stiff track, and he might struggle if the ground remains good. His placing here also suggests he has more important targets later, and he's unlikely to be fully wound up.
Of the others, Lough Derg really needs further/softer to be at his absolute best at this distance, Elusive Dream has been injured, and time for Rupert needs further.
Though Lough Derg should ensure a decent pace, Zaynar should have too much speed for the others, and looks to have been placed in close to his ideal circumstances. Not much of a price though, and much more rain would bring others into it.
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(i.e. the form showed against Rambo Dancer) indicates that Vouchsafe had possibly improved, no? ![[avatar]](http://www.blackcat-racing.co.uk/avatars/owl.png)
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