quote:

"Van der Wheil clearly told us - in the March 1981 article - that he used the win prize money one as part of his main method. Why? because for that purpose he regarded it as better - "each element was selected after a great deal of research.

George/J Letter 49.(Winners) The value of the race involved determines the degree of ability because OPPOSITION in higher-prized races is greater. It's all about money!

Trypod

Ectoo

Calm down and consider the two horses not from your point of view but from Van der Wheil's.

Which had the better form last time out (which, generally, is what matters and certainly in this case), bearing in mind we are considering a class 227?

Dijeerr - won a class 125, beating a horse which on its last run had come 3rd in a class 170.

Atlantic Sport - 3rd in a class 284, beaten by a horse which, on its last run, had come 3rd in a class 1681.

No contest, given the way Van der Wheil assessed class (of race and of runners).

Then we set that in the context of respective abilities:

Dijeerr 132, ranked 2nd

Atlantic Sport 70, ranked 5th

thus both possibles (and indeed the rankings come closer when we bring the sf based crosscheck to bear).

So we have Dijeerr with the higher AR (though Atlantic Sport with an acceptable AR from the rank perspective), and Atlantic Sport with the better form (though Dijeerr also a probable with form). How do we select the class/form horse with this apparent conflict? The answer is to be found in two of Van der Wheil's examples (Clayside and Von Trappe) and confirmed by others.

It is not a question of post race comment. I specifically named Atlantic Sport but said I wasn't backing it, and wished you well with your selection.

And the reason I didn't back Atlantic Sport had nothing to do with the presence of Dijeerr in the race, but was because on the crosscheck ratings I use for non handicaps - the extent to which a horse is "in" or "out" on the Official Ratings - Atlantic Sport was 4lb "out" with Dijeerr. Being conservative in my betting, that was sufficient to put me off.

Trypod

Indeed, as today's comparison between Dijeerr and Atlantic Sport illustrates.

GJ

Bend and tinker with figures all you like, had today's race been over a furlong further there is no doubt at all the first 2 places would have been reversed.
Wonder how you'd have made the figures fit then?

Please will one of the vdw-ers remind me what the fk is this class227 stuff?

I vaguely recall something about shortening the resultant of
£s won from wins over number of races one, and my guess is that the figure must be this.

If so, can anyone offer a logical explanation in modern-day parlance as to why it is better to have been beaten into 3rd by a horse that came 3rd in a "class 1681"?

At first, I wrongly assumed that it was something to do with the Beachboys or the Fonz or something! Fk knows why; maybe i'm getting confused by all these fkn devices!

Clear answers would be appreciated, please; I'm something of a dolt myself when it comes to fathoming incomprehensible mythology.

been looking at a race on saturday the way george has been speaking about and MAJOR CADERAUX must have a big big chance in the 3.45 at doncaster just look at the horses around it in its last 3 runs

quote:

Atlantic Sport - 3rd in a class 284, beaten by a horse which, on its last run, had come 3rd in a class 1681.

now George..this is just making it fit I'm afraid..and it's highly flawed thinking/form reading imo

never mind these horses that finished in front of AS..I'm sorry but running BEHIND horses tells us little...I can run BEHIND Linford Christie...but my actual FORM would only carry any relevance by judging who I actually beat.


what actually finished behind AS in that race?..what did he beat?...Moyenne Corniche ...who finished 3rd... had previously been buried ..finished last in a listed race...that is not good form...and yet was just 3/4l behind your class/form horse???

just because a decent horse wins a race..you cannot just tag a horse on to it's tail like you have here..you also have to look directly behind your horse to make sure it's not a selling plater licking it's arse.

I would actually agree with John ...in retrospect it maybe that dijeerr has got accustomed to 8f and needs that extra test..not sure...but it makes more sense than your way of reading it.

Sean

As Trypod said, it is a matter of money: a foundation of Van der Wheil's main method was that the class of a race was best measured by its value to the winner. Thus the 3.30 today, where the winner's prize money was £22,708.00, is referred to as a class 227 (Van der Wheil worked to the nearest 100.)

Thus, for Van der Wheil, the higher the win prize money, the higher the class.

Both Dijeerr and Atlantic Sport were probables with form today, the former lto by winning a class 125, ie well below today's class 227. Viewed from the perspective of the horse Dijeerr beat lto, that was previously 3rd in a race of higher class than the 125 (which suggests the form was solid) but again below today's 227. By contrast, Atlantic Sport had come a creditable 3rd in a race of much hgigher class than Dijeerr's latest, and today's race. And that 3rd was behind a horse who in its last race was a decent 3rd in a race of very nearly the highest class, miles above anything in Dijeerr's profile and miles above the class of today's race.

Of course, the analysis only makes sense if one accepts Van der Wheil's basic proposition that win prize money is the best measure of class. But while alternative views of how class might even more effectively be measured are of course legitimate, from a Van der Wheil perspective the position is clear cut.

you have over credited AS George...running behind horses does not show form...beating horses does

Ectoo

"it's highly flawed thinking/form reading imo"

I accept that that is your opinion, but with respect what matters to me is how Van der Wheil worked, and the evidence is that is as I have described it. (For the significance of the horse that finished in front, you have only to read Van der Wheil's first race discussion, where Prominent King was his selection.)

Incidentally, like you I'd finish behind Linford Christie, but the issue is, in part, how far. If, in a proper race, either of us could have finished within a meter or two of Christie at his best, people would I think regard us as serious sprinters.

tackled from a purely form point of view...RPR in the Racing post rated Dijeer's last run as a 113....AS's last race earned an RPR of 108...a pure collateral reading there showing that AS was 5lb inferior just on that last run

you are having yourself on after the fact imo..but I can see you belive what you are saying.

ectoo look at the horse i put up and tell me running behind a horse is not very good form

quote:

Incidentally, like you I'd finish behind Linford Christie, but the issue is, in part, how far. If, in a proper race, either of us could have finished within a meter or two of Christie at his best, people would I think regard us as serious sprinters.

they wouldn't if LC had only done enough to win ...not needed to have shown his true class...which might just be confirmed when in 3rd place one metre behind me/you was a bloke with a pot on his leg

you can see where I'm coming from with that extreme example?

Les

I never said running behind was not good form..what I said was that you also have to look immediately behind to confirm...when you do that with AS he does not have such a great look about him

it's a matter of confirmation..form is more than just the winner of a race...it's how much did that winner achieve...with AS he didn't achieve what George thinks because the one behind holds it down

GEORGE
I do not no at what time the 2 non runners were pulled out or how vdw allowed for this, but last night from the ability rankings Atlantic Sport was in 6th position.Vitznau being pulled allowed Atlantic Spirit to rise to 5th position

quote:

The value of the race involved determines the degree of ability because OPPOSITION in higher-prized races is greater. It's all about money!

the main problem with that thinking is that many races are not of the average for that class..you get Group 2's that are no better form than Group 3's depending on whether horses drop out.

Look at Sundays Irish Champion Stakes...that race was about a Group 2 standard..but your £ ratings will make those placed behind NA look like G1 animals..when in fact they aren't...£ wise a G1 is way higher than a G2...but in just that one instance the form is clearly group 2

there is no rule of thumb just based on £

Ectoo

What the heck have Racing Post ratings to do with Van der Wheil's method?

The method exists as a set of fairly sophisticated (despite Jimmymac's view to the contrary) numerics, the assumptions behind which are, of course, open to criticism. But he (Van der Wheil) said that the various elements had been adopted after serious research, and that they worked. Obviously the latter point is what is of real interest - do they work? However, to test that - as I will be over the next 12 months - the first requirement is to tease out the numerics so that one can apply them properly. Part of the numerics, in my view, is what I have set out re Dijeerr and Atlantic Sport.

Incidentally, on re-reading my post I have unhelpfully brought together the two quite separate issues of how one decides the class/form horse when faced with a situation like today's (of which there are, as indicated, several among the Van der Wheil examples) and how one decides whether the class/form horse, once identified, should be backed. The two examples I cited - Clayside and Von Trappe - will help anyone interested solve the first problem. The ability ranking helps with the second - all Van der Wheil's stated bets, "certainties", and "outstanding bets" were among the top 5. So, once Atlantic Sport was identified as the class/form horse he could have been a bet from the ability ranking perspective - but for the reason I have explained for me he wasn't.

we had one little Listed race here...and look at the discussion we get...we are pretty familiar with the horses..it's all nice and present

can you guys not see the benefit of discussing present races before and after...way better than races from 30 years ago...how well do you know those horses?..did you see them run...know their foibles???

quote:

What the heck have Racing Post ratings to do with Van der Wheil's method?

they are linked...because they both try to represent form...one in a clearly logical manner...ie the winner of a race is rated on what it beat


the other..is a very tenous way of linking horses together but totally ignoring the "form" of horses behind the one you are studying

basically..one method is pure form ratings...the other is mix and match after the race to fit a scenario.

you haven't convinced me in your argument as you seem to be fudging it without telling me how you are using logic.

if the horse behind AS had run as well previously...as the one behind Dijeer had...I could see you argument in a better light...but you have completely ignored the one behind...because it doesn't support your case

Paul

Yes indeed. Had Vitznau not been withdrawn, from the AR perspective Atlantic Sport would have been sixth ranked, and had this been a race of where all the horses were exposed, that for me in my present state of understanding, would have precluded him from being a bet.

But in my view this is the kind of race where one needs to apply the ancillary ability rating Van der Wheil suggested in item 47 of "The Golden Years". I use the Form Book sfs for that purpose, although I am conscious that they are compiled on a different (and to my mind less satisfactory) basis than in "the Van der Wheil years", and when one applies those Atlantic Sport's position improves. Bearing that in mind, even if Vitznau had run I'd have regarded Atlantic Sport as a class/form horse who could have been backed - though I still wouldn't have backed him for the crosscheck reason explained earlier.