Having read through Guest's posts and seen his selections, he clearly has a good idea of how Van der Wheil worked but not, I think, of how Van der Wheil selected those class/form horses to back and those to leave.
His (Guest's) strike rate seems to be in the 30%s which is well below the 80%+ Van der Wheil said was possible. I accept Johnd's point about sacrificing strike rate for more bets and greater overall profits, but unless one is only interested in longer priced horses (which Guest clearly wasn't when he was posting) one can't drop the strike rate too far.
talking of ratings earlier were does PROFITS FROM WEIGHTS RIIGHT COME IN looks as if its part of vdw set but not spoken of? and if used without weight a good way to follow class movment
This message has been edited. Last edited by: les henderson,
Yes, they are proving a useful crosscheck on whether a strong looking Van der Wheil selection is as strong as it looks.
Given that they seem to work quite well and I've just found out that Superform ceased trading a couple of months ago, I'm not sure there is much mileage in exploring whether one of Van der Wheil's was based on them. Even if it was, they won't be available for current races, which is what really matters.
george remember mr spiers used speed plus when he got his yankee up in the letter to vdw i,ve been looking at speed plus in the raceform you could have a wee look at them
aye Galotea..didn't bet it..but am amazed that the fav benbaum ran and was still the fav...was never going to run to his best on this going..would have layed all day on that.
Andy
Many thanks for your kind offer...but I have many of the VDW articles.
I have said before..I have not a problem with the basics..it's generalised "mentions" that I don't think much to.
In fact...if you remove all the crazy dumbass's surrounding it I think people can discuss it quite nicely
this thread is very pleasant..obviously we have one sad posting as is expected from such as JohnD...who has constantly misused this forum over a number of years...given nothing...except abuse...and taken owt on offer...a human parasite imo. He does hold the tipping record on here...1/30 I believe..showing a loss of 25points LSP...ouch.
but as a few of you are his mate ..I'll say no more...but it is interesting that his sole post since "leaving"..is full of the normal hatred and bile I've had to endure from the bullying twat since day one on here.
it's a shame that he has so little to offer...bar laying tips
george remember mr spiers used speed plus when he got his yankee up in the letter to vdw i,ve been looking at speed plus in the raceform you could have a wee look at them
I've seen the letter by Mr Spiers that is reprinted as item 37 of "The Golden Years" and Van der Wheil's letter to Mr Spiers reprinted in "VDW The Silver Lining", but I don't think I've seen the letter to which you refer. Can you please tell me where it is?
The reason speed figures are not measured in mph is because the difference between the figures is too small. Ratings do not have decimal points in them so a speed of say 36.36mph would be expressed as 36mph. Therefore you could have a field of say 8 runners where they all had a best speed rating of 36mph, which is no help to anyone. The same field using speed figures in pounds weight could show a difference of 10lb which is just over 3 lengths. Look at the illustration below:
The speed is the average speed of the horse calculated from the winning time of the race and distance beaten in the race where it achieved its best TS figure. The figures are rounded up or down to the nearest whole figure. As you can see there is only 2 mph difference between the fastest and slowest. Matterofact and Joss Stick have run the same best speed yet Matterofact at the weights is 11lb superior which is about 3 or 4 lengths. The actual speed calculated is Joss Stick 37.49 mph and Matterofact 36.69 mph. Azygous has the fastest speed because his best TS figure was achieved at Epsom over 5f. This is the fastest sprint course in the country if not the world. If Horse A runs a mile at 36mph and Horse B at 35mph, Horse B will be beaten about 14 lengths which is near enough 40lbs.
The reason speed figures are not measured in mph is because the difference between the figures is too small. Ratings do not have decimal points in them so a speed of say 36.36mph would be expressed as 36mph. Therefore you could have a field of say 8 runners where they all had a best speed rating of 36mph, which is no help to anyone. The same field using speed figures in pounds weight could show a difference of 10lb which is just over 3 lengths. Look at the illustration below:
The speed is the average speed of the horse calculated from the winning time of the race and distance beaten in the race where it achieved its best TS figure. The figures are rounded up or down to the nearest whole figure. As you can see there is only 2 mph difference between the fastest and slowest. Matterofact and Joss Stick have run the same best speed yet Matterofact at the weights is 11lb superior which is about 3 or 4 lengths. The actual speed calculated is Joss Stick 37.49 mph and Matterofact 36.69 mph. Azygous has the fastest speed because his best TS figure was achieved at Epsom over 5f. This is the fastest sprint course in the country if not the world. If Horse A runs a mile at 36mph and Horse B at 35mph, Horse B will be beaten about 14 lengths which is near enough 40lbs.
GARSTONF Thank you for your reply. The race you refer to, i note the winner Bold Argument as 3rd best topspeed, when messed about with and adjusted by top speed is 4th best, using mph joint 2nd best. Im not saying the horse with highest mph or highest s/f is always going to win, but i think a few more eyebrows would be raised if horses who were noted to be 1 or 2 mph quicker than the rest of the field they was racing and then geting beaten by considerably slower animals.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: paul,
..I'll say no more...but it is interesting that his sole post since "leaving"..is full of the normal hatred and bile I've had to endure from the bullying twat since day one on here.
