I must say that there does seem to be something linking
johndolt
Investor
Lee.

As ever, on this vdw forum, it is difficult to see or say exactly what.

George Johns -
yes, I was aware of that thread that brought in Mr Davey and the booklet sellers.

I think it was EC who recalled some American racing authorities using some of the more sensible bits of vdw-type methodology long before any of the British stuff with the mythical dutchman was published.


Again, in the light of johndolt's most recent outburst, I would like to reiterate that it is an historical fact that, one Sunday afternoon, EC went though the card selecting winners "live" on an internet racing forum.
That takes some doing , imo. Certainly not the sort of thing that a "liar" would do, and, definitely not something that a booklet seller could achieve.

And as regards TRF, I would have to agree basically with what EC said about it. "Gone to pot" would be my description. Some very good posters, inc EC and, I believe even JIB, have found that it can be a cnt of a place for harbouring resident knobheads who think they know a lot but seem very naive, imo.
The major difference there, I think, is that TRF is full of betting shop workers and wannabe racing pressmen, whereas on here, on this forum, we have been bedevilled more by covert booklet sellers who give everyone the hump.

Lay out all races from P/King to Quest for Fame-ie all horse's last three runs, Course, £ cl,Grade, Wt, Going, Dist. Then Life time form of all horses VDW gave us. Next the full form of the horses that they beat or they were beaten by. A time consuming exercise but this is what Lee and Guest had in front of them. Barney picked up on what they were trying to convey, and Statajack also. Lee said VDW worked from lists and I agree with him. When you have done the above go back over there Posts and compare the above posters selections and put them against VDW's examples and you will see the pattern. Be careful of Guests as he slipped in a few of VDW other methods

Please stop this in fighting as nobody gains in the end.

Well said trypod and thanks for spelling it out - not a problem really - how many will be bothered to do as you suggest?



Just remembered I posted something relevant somewhere else -

hard work

This message has been edited. Last edited by: IMP,

Thanks, trypod.

quote:

Originally posted by Tuppenycat:

EC are you saying that Johnd was double posting as that much regarded clown - Lee ??

IMO he never lived up to his self advertised hype , and is a "False Favorite"

witness also his Biased challenge to JIB

tc

Tc

Seems my job on here is clearing up bullshit, only from the knockers rather than the practioners?

--------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:

Lee
Member
Posted May 20, 2005 11:23 AM Hide Post
EC,

Below is pretty much what went on. I decided over a period, which would have been longer than turned out, to give my thoughts on racing from a VDW perspective. I could understand why the knockers were knocking and, although I knew deep down how it would end, I went ahead.

What should be taken in to account is the fact that what you see below are the only horses that I commented on the forum in this period. These weren't the only horses that I backed during the period, and of course, not all the horses that I backed won. But I wanted to mention only the very best. I think there may be one other horse that I mentioned which lost – but I'm pretty sure I didn't back it – can't find it though.

Byron is the horse that was after-timed – I couldn't care less if that upsets people – it didn't upset me.

8 July

Epi,

These Condition races are ones to treat with caution - like the 7.55 they often have small fields and short priced favs. I think Fruhlingssturm is interesting and could be a danger. But for me these are races to leave alone.

Fruhlingssturm won @ 9/2 beating the 5/6F – not backed.

July 19

JohnD,

The 3.45 may well be a poor race for consistency; however, I think Top Dirham is worth looking at from a Roushayd point of view.

I'd fully expect kalaman to take the Scottish Derby.

Top Dirham won @ 3/1 (backed at 7/2 on bf)
Kalaman won @ 5/6 (backed at just above)

Reply's

Lee,

V nice tipping. Well done!

Thanxs Lee, I liked the look of Top Dirham, and was confident after reading your post.

Lee
Have only just seen your post. Did look at Top Dirham, but didn't have the confidence to back it. You obviously did though, and he won well. Nice one, and thanks for the input.
If you had a look at the last at Ayr, you will probably have picked up on the 'interesting' placing of the winner. Didn't have a bet, but his win wasn't the surprise his price suggested.

Posted 21 July

JohnD,

This is an interesting little race in which I think Peter Paul Rubens is the most likely winner, but not a back.

I'm not a stats person, but do have a look for really strong trends, and this race fits that bill. In the last 10 years the favourite has won 8 times! With the 3rd favourite taking the other 2. Cole has taken the race twice and so has Hannon, with Terry Mills taking it last year.

Peter Paul Rubens won @ 15/8 – not backed

Posted 22 July

John,

I have Stretton ˜out of it' and this looks another opportunity for the likely short priced favourite, but it won't be carrying my money.

A nice colt who only ran once as a 2yo over 7f, and it says a lot that he didn't make the winners enclosure during his maiden runs.

Stretton finished 4th of 6 2nd favourite. The short priced fav was pipped at the post.

Posted 22 July

Mine's a large one. (this was a cryptic selection posted just before the off)

Double Vodka won @ 3/1 – backed at around 9/2 on bf

Posted 29 July

Tunkie,

My idea of the winner in the 5.35 is Lochbuie. In the 3.50 nothing stands out, perhaps Lucayan Ledgend, but there are plenty of negatives, of which the draw is just one.

I have backed Darasim for the Goodwood Cup.

Lochbuie won @ 7/2 – backed at around that price.
Darasim won @ 11/8 – backed at just under 2/1 bf.

Replys:

Lee,
Spot on

Lee,

V Impressive. Well done!

Lee - well done !

On this forum we welcome pre race postings - and we acknowledge them !

Even better when they include a few "reasons" !!

And that is where it finished. The knockers were still knocking! Why didn't I post my reasons for selecting the horses I did, and it is easy to pick favourites etc. etc, were the remarks I got. My aim has always been to try and confirm to those who are interested that there is something in the letters and articles that were written 30 odd years ago. To those who really aren't interested – I couldn't give a damn.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

As is quite clear from this post, which anyone can check its origins, Lee did demonstrate quite a high strike rate, and all given, clearly and concisely, before the race.
As you should also see, the post is addressed to Ectoo, so his recent pronouncement:

quote:

re Lee...I checked back on the supposedly great selections he put up

I'm sorry but vague hints to horses winning isn't putting selections up.......xxx should run well...when it don't its never mentioned again...like the very last tip he recently put about..a few months ago...it was a short priced animal over the jumps...and it fell...never got mentioned again.

is exposed as just another of his blatant lies.

I should also point out that, having probably been closer to the issue than you were, Lee's challenge to Jib was entirely fair, and presented in such a manner that would have passed any moral or legal inspection.

I'm not surprised the forum is the way it is at the moment, its always the case when the big-mouthed liar is with us, what I am surprised about is that you would give him credence?

they aren't my idea of clear confident selections John...sorry but we have differing views on this

is it not time you stopped badgering me on here?...folk are tired of it...so am I.

grow up...and get back to what the forum should be about

there's a good man

JOHND
CAN YOU POINT OUT THE CLEARANDCONFIDENTSELECTIONS

There seem to be three:

Kalaman 5/6
Lochbuie 7/2
Darasim 11/8

I'd thought there were many more than this.

I was around the night that Double Vodka was posted - "mines a large one" - boasting? . I'd just looked at the form myself, so know exactly what Lee was on about. However, it can't really count as a clear selection.

quote:

Mine's a large one. (this was a cryptic selection posted just before the off)

Double Vodka won @ 3/1 – backed at around 9/2 on bf

Now to be fair to Lee his "mentions" are pretty decent...but...I'm real sorry JohnD..but calling the above one, in particular a "confident" selection is completely bogus

by the way..my above message isn't a cryptic clue for a horse running Saturday

this is a cryptic clue though for what I think about you calling that a confident selection

ollksboc





by the way

he posted a selection a few months ago..fav over the sticks...it fell...unlucky I thought

BlackCat

There are. For example a dutch and a single on 10 September 2007 (post on VDW Part 2, 10.31am, 10/09/07).

I've been looking through a VDW thread on TheRacingForum started by Mtoto, and I think Lee may have posted a selection there (Amarna, 12/10/07). The post was under username L33, but the poster was referred to as Lee subsequently.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: George Johns,

Btw, George Johns,

have you spotted the pattern spelled out by Trypod?

I haven't put in the relevant work, but I was wondering whether these selections of Lee and johnd fit the pattern?

Please note, I am NOT asking for the pattern, but I would just like to know if you spotted it yet?

Sean

I can only respond in terms of the Van der Wheil selections which have been generated in the way shown in the March 1981 article (item 39 in "The Golden Years") some 70 or so from Prominent King in 1978 to Zilzal and Braashee in 1989. (There are others, where different methods of identifying the probables were used, which I have yet to study.)

The 70 odd I have studied were in my view all found by the same method, ie in Trypod's terms all have the same pattern, with one qualification. Although the method is essentially the same with each, I agree with a comment of Lee's on one of the archived threads that it is better to divide the selections into those going up in class and those going down, because Van der Wheil appears to have been more stringent in aspects of his requirements depending on which category the class/form horse was in. (For example, I think it is extremely unlikely that Van der Wheil would consider a horse who finished 6th last time out, like Roushayd, if it was going up in class - Roushayd was of course being dropped.)

I have studied a number of Lee's selections in detail and except on one point all those I've looked at so far would be found by the same method, ie fit the pattern. The exception is Double Vodka which in my view would have been eliminated by the probables device Van der Wheil demonstrated in the Prominent King example.

Johnd has fairly said that some of Van der Wheil's pointers were guidelines and should not be taken literally, and I suppose when one has enough experience one can judge when they can safely be relaxed. I can't at present judge whether Johnd relaxes them appropriately, or unduly liberally - I suspect the latter purely because in an early response to me he said he was not achieving 80% success (though he may well of course be making more money relaxing the guidelines and having more bets at a lower strike rate). If someone was wanting to study recent selections rather than the Van der Wheil originals, in my view they would be on safer ground with Lee's because those of his I've studied are more conservative than Johnd's in staying within Van der Wheil's guidelines.

quote:

Please note, I am NOT asking for the pattern, but I would just like to know if you spotted it yet?

I've checked the 28 horses that JohnD posted on that 80% thread and I have noticed a pattern in those Sean...in all except one example that is.

Thanks to George and EC!

GJ

Strike rate = vanity
profit = sanity

It took me years to learn that, but so very, very true.

Johnd

I wouldn't dream of criticising either Lee or yourself for taking a more relaxed view of Van der Wheil's guidelines than I intend to - any more than I would criticise Mtoto for, as far as I can see, departing from them entirely in certain respects. Only individual posters know how well they really do in terms of the bottom line, and that, as you imply, may well be what really mattters to most.

However, strike rate is important to me as well as the bottom line, not for reasons of vanity (like bottom lines, only the individual knows his true strike rate) but because it determines the probability of the frequency and length of losing runs. To me, a key attraction of Van der Wheil's claim is that, if it proves justified, one avoids much of the sapping of confidence that extended losing runs can bring, and also the need for a very large bank which is a major plus if one bets seriously in terms of stake size.

310S

This rates at 98.

Pinpoint ran 100+ lto, he's been in great form this season and the handicapper is aware of it. Off 108 today he's weighted to his best ability and its more than likely he'll get caught again.

Watamu is v lightly raced for a 7yo (19 runs) having only one race as a 4 and 5yo. Since Dec 06 his mark has risen 25lbs from its starting point of 80, mostly due to 7 excellent AW performances. This season he has run in 3 turf races. The first two, a 31k C2 and a 34k Listed Hcp were sound but unspectacular efforts. However lto he ran a blinder, I rate his 2.25l 3rd to Stoute's Gulf Express at 100+ , with a further seven 100+ horses behind him.
As Watamu is relatively unexposed overall and very much so on turf I think he could well be a big player here today. Win and place.

Tazeez won lto getting 7lbs for the win because the 3rd home that day was 7ls behind the 2nd. Taking the 2nd , (Steele Tango, who has been withdrawn today), I can rate him at 95, which on the face of it makes him a contender. However that race doesn't look good at all with 46ls between the winner and the 10th (last). I don't see Tazeez as a finished product yet.

Re Barolo also wlto finding some easy opposition to put in an 88. This is his best turf performance and he got 3lbs for it. I still have him some way short of what will be needed today.

King Charles's best performance was 2lto at 12f gf. I rate that at 94 and he's now +2lbs from that. He doesn't run bad races but he looks stretched to the limit in this.

Lang Shining has been beaten 52ls in his last three races. He has talent but he's got too many problems to make it flourish for the time being.

Proponent has had his prize this year, a 31k C2 at Nmkt, he's +6lbs from that performance which I can't rate at better than 90. He's only had 10 runs but seven of them have been hcps and that 90 rating at Nmkt is the best I can find.

Kaateb looks dangerous. He's another late flourisher whose 2lto performance rates 98. The handicapper has paid attention giving him 7lbs for the win 2lto and 2lbs for the 2nd of 6 nonhcp lto. His last two races both show his RP ratings better than his mark and I will be doing him win and place.

Bennandonner has been beaten 40ls in his last three runs. Mr Fahey is a tricky customer but I can't support a horse that has this sort of current form.

Swop is obviously going to win C2s for Mr Cumani. The handicapper gave him 5lbs for a 2nd place lto. His RP ratings for that race are great and on the face of it looks as if a big run is on the cards. However I don't like him. I rate this last run at only 90, to my mind if he was going to win this today after running a 90 he should have won lto. The 3rd horse home was only rated at 79. That was a mile race and the thinking today must be that at today's 10f he's going to be better, however he's never run further than a mile. Its been a month since that race so there has been time for improvement but at 6s with so many class horses to beat at a new distance he looks far from certain.

Ask The Butler won comfortably lto with a performance I rate at 92, +6lbs. He's going to go well today but at 5/1 he's not bargain of the day.

Love Galore ran a cracker lto over 12f. I rate that performance at 101 with the age allowance he runs with only 8-10 and has to be well worth a win and place.

Luberon is a hard horse to predict. He's got the class but he looks out of form and could only win 3lto when on a mark of 87, he's on 94 today and looks unattractive, though that's how too many of Mr Johnston's winners appear that way on the morning before racing!

Australia Day is yet another 5yo improver. Lto was the sort of race I regard as giving an unreliable rating as the market suggests only 2 of the 4 opposing horses were serious contenders and they only rated 78 and 87. However I do note that the time was fast and the win decisive and I could regret leaving him out.

Nanton won a poor looking C2 lto he got 6lbs for his pains in a performance I can't rate better than 89. He's repeatedly failed in this class and today will be the same story.

Capable Guest has three poor last performances after his name and can't be considered until some sign of life is given.

Watamu, Kaateb, and Love Galore win and place.

250C

This rates at 97.

Speed Gifted has been running in G2s this season but it looks as if connections think there will be no joy there and are stepping him down. His best performance was a year ago when he won a 3yo C2 at York putting in a performance of 96. Dropping a horse to win a top class handicap is not easy, especially when the horse has demonstrated it can't make the grade in top class non hcps and at 5/1 I ill look elsewhere.

Red Gala is much the same as Speed Gifted and at 7/1 is just as unattractive.

New Guinea is a true handicapper but he's not been seen since the Dubai Festival. He is respected but I imagine he will be better after this race.

Strategic Mount ran a 95 lto when winning a C2 at Ascot that he had won the year before. Those are his only successes in the last two years, which doesn't give much encouragement if trying to make a case for him being placed to win today.

Solent came last in this last year. He stated at 16s and was beaten a dist. This year he has been beaten a total of 100ls in two hcps and then went out to win a Nov Hdl v easily. Last year he ran a 90 at Asc for Mr Hannon and I suspect he's going to run well today, but I can't find a rating that says he's good enough to win.

Record Breaker's best run was 2nd to Strategic Mount at Ascot. That rates 93 which puts him in the reckoning but not decisively so.

Mull Of Dubai did an 87 lto on heavy and has a 98 over 10f here in May. That 98 will be good enough today if he goes the extra 3f.

Greenwich Meantime has not been dangerous in C2s for some time. This shorter distance may help but I can't feel any encouragement to support him today.

Sir Duke has been doing well in the lower divisions, but he has been hammering horses rated 20 and 30lbs lower than today, he looks outclassed here.

Sahrati ran an 88 when winning in June but that's the best he can boast and that's inadequate today.

Cheshire Prince has been battering donkeys at the course this year. He's entitled to his place today because of that but these are far better animals.

Prelude's biggest threat to the others today will be his braying!

Cool Judgement is improving, he ran 86 lto but that's the best he can boast so far. That's not good enough for me.

Mull Of Dubai win and place.

Your just a bunch of pansies.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_hz2am90Hk&feature=user