Taking w/f/a into consideration from the November Handicap to Weds Ebor les - New Guinea is 12 lbs better in with Sanbuch for a 3 lengths beating.

yes i remember us all going through the november handicap all those months ago

To counter that Sanbuch has improved in the interim (99 Nov Hcap runs of 109 in Ebor with his penalty)New Guinea has not been placed to show yet this season imo and has gone well fresh in the past.

Les

There are in fact several lower than 29%. The lowest, I think, is Quest for Fame, whom Van der Wheil selected for the 1990 Derby (class 3550) and whomprior to the Derby has just a win at class 43 to his name - a rating of 1.2%.

The huge relative value of the Derby perhaps distorts this rating, though even for that race there was a horse with a rating of 30%. But there are more modest races for which selections had ratings of between 10% and 20%, eg Connaught Bridge, 10%.

o well there goes that filter lol

HI SEAN
I have been reading an old post page 835 of the Archived Van Der Wheil 28th December 2004. The post was from Mikey to yourself offering you a way to sort the ability rating in seconds.

May i ask did Mikey ever explain how you could sort the ability rating, and if he did would you be able to post what he said on this thread .

Thank you
Paul

Les

I think you'll find the rank position of a horse's AR a useful filter. In the March 1981 article, Van der Wheil recommended marking off the to four ability ratings and although as Johnd has said that was a guide rather than a rule Van der Wheil seems to have observed it quite closely.

Among the selections Van der Wheil definitely states were bets for him (or should have been for his correspondent, Mr Spiers), or described in strong terms ("certainties", "outstanding"), only two as far as I can see were ranked lower than fourth, and they were both fifth.

One presumes Van der Wheil backed some of the selections he described in less strong terms (though his comment re Kenlis in the March 1981 article shows that just because a class/form horse was a "good thing" it was not necessarily a bet), and some of these were probably ranked lower that fourth in the ARs. (He may very well have backed Prominent King, and that was ranked 7th.) So I suppose the point to take from the evidence is that one should only go for a horse ranked below fifth if it is really solid in all other respects.

think that arc bleucan just scrape into the ebor as it did in the pitmans derby because of the going heavy and low weight could see a rush on its price as it did at newcastle has anybody got any thoughts on this?

I would be surprised if he got in les but concede that he would be dangerous if he did.Had a wee look at the New Guniea debate in November earlier here`s what one member made of the horses profile.

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ectoo
Member
Posted November 11, 2007 08:17 PM Hide Post
I had a couple of issues with New Guinea, Les.

firstly he looks a horse that wants further than 12f..especially when racing on flatish finishing course like Donny. his form crys out stamina to me.

Allied to this he prefers softer ground..acts on faster but better on a slow surface.

In a normal weather year I reckon he would just about have won the November..it's usually stamina sapping ground..not this year.

Thats why I didn't think his profile fitted this race under the conditions.
Posts: 966 | Registered: October 14, 2003

Les - Arc Bleu is quoted at 140.00 on betfair just now though there`s been more money for him than New Guinea who is 30`s now - the ante -post market on betfair favours Young Mick in a big way.

aye wattie ther was some debate about its lto out ability rating and if it was poised to score?

if the cut is where you expect young mick comes into one of the top well rated horses and top 4 ability

Ah gave up on aw that ability rating stuff a while ago noo les disnae seem tae hav done me any harm either.

One thing ye could note aboot Young Mick les is that he has won a fair bit oh money and still finds himsel better handicapped than horses that hiv won a lot less.

top 4 ability mad rush 325,young mick 280,hindu kush263,andarc bleu 227 the top 4 down to arc

did,nt pay much attention to it till last few months like to give things a try

your fair bit of money statement applys even more to arc bleu

Those that have bet Arc Bleu at 140.00 have obviously done so in the hope that a purge will take place and he will sneak in but does`nt look likely at the moment.

Young Mick has a wheen of money on him at this stage compared to others in the race.

have been on the racing forum and posters from near the track are talking about if racing will go on its that soft