Les

In case it causes any confusion, as it did for me initially, the * against the consistency total of 11 for Gee-A is an error (not on Johnd's part, but Tony Peach's). It is not in the original version of the piece from which Peach reprinted it, and of course is incorrect given Van der Wheil's approach to identifying the consistent horses.

Does anyone have the trainer stats for this race?

johnd it is,nt the ability rating as a whole i,m talking about but what is the ability rating of the horses biggest win,you would,nt want a horse that had,nt won a race say 50% of todays ability rating

Les

A couple of Van der Wheil's examples, both of which he said he backed:

Nomadic Way - selected for a class 495, best previous win a class 158

Braashee - selected for a class 713, best previous win a class 204.

george does vdw select any winner that had not won in a race a good percentage of the spoils on offer[if you know what i mean?]

My guess would be, "no, he never did", but I'll wait for George's reply.

The winning prize money thing seemed to work well Saturday, btw, but the Cecil horse wasn't far away.

Les have you had a look at the Ebor yet?.

well wattie without looking i have been following young mick as you know have got a week of night shift for next week so a real result for york will start tonight and go through the ebor maybe we can get an opinion out of some of vdwrs before the off

the ebor seems to suit bottom weights who ran well with top weight in there previous runnings ie my biggest regret not backing that 100/1 shot last year won with 10st pulled up then won the ebor with light weight looked and looked then backed cumani,s felt sick after that

Ive had a wee tenner on New Guinea at 40.00 on the exchanges but will need to wait for the place market to form before i have a bet on that - if he runs on Weds which is still an unkown - i can see him doing well.

have taken racing posts rating and weight from last 3 runnings then ajusted to todays weight then looked at top 3 or 4 have got a couple of winners of the ebor that way

DONCASTER
10 November 2007
Good To Firm

My Result Result

3:10 totesport.com November Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m4f

[off 3:11] £46,740.00, £13,995.00, £6,997.50, £3,502.50, £1,747.50, £877.50

Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Malt Or Mash (USA) 13 R Hannon 3 8-10 Ryan Moore 5/1 97 107 108+
2 1½ Sanbuch 17 L M Cumani 3 8-12 Jimmy Fortune 13/2 99 107 108+
3 hd Night Crescendo (USA) 19 Mrs A J Perrett 4 8-13 Martin Dwyer 50/1 94 102 103
4 2½ Tropical Strait (IRE) 2 D W P Arbuthnot 4 8-5 Fergus Sweeney 12/1 86 90 91
5 hd New Guinea 4 Saeed Bin Suroor 4 9-10 Darryll Holland 16/1 105 108 111+
6 nk Heaven Knows (GB) 10 W J Haggas 4 8-13 R Hills 13/2 94 97 98
7 1 La Estrella (USA) 9 D E Cantillon 4 8-3 Chris Catlin 50/1 84 85 86
8 nk Pippa Greene 7 P F I Cole 3 8-10 Jamie Spencer 9/2F 97 98 99
9 ¾ Lundy´s Lane (IRE) 15 A M Balding 7 9-2 Francis Norton 33/1 97 97 98
10 3 Bandama (IRE) 16 Mrs A J Perrett 4 8-9 Jim Crowley 16/1 90 85 86
11 ½ Bazart 1 K R Burke 5 8-3 Andrew Elliott(3) 100/1 87 81 82
12 shd John Terry (IRE) 6 Mrs A J Perrett 4 8-10 Seb Sanders 22/1 91 85 86
13 shd Inchloch 3 B G Powell 5 8-1 Dale Gibson 25/1 82 76 77
14 1 Heron Bay 18 G Wragg 3 9-4 Steve Drowne 14/1 105 97 98
15 3 Realism (FR) 5 M W Easterby 7 8-8 Paul Mulrennan 100/1 89 76 77
16 shd Akarem 11 K R Burke 6 8-9 K Darley 20/1 90 77 78
17 1¼ Chicken Soup 14 D J Murphy 5 8-11 N Callan 50/1 92 77 78
18 16 Rampallion 12 Saeed Bin Suroor 4 9-1 Eddie Ahern 25/1 96 55 57
19 10 Dzesmin (POL) 23 R C Guest 5 7-13 p Duran Fentiman(3) 16/1 83 25 28
20 5 Turn Of Phrase (IRE) 21 N Wilson 8 7-9 4b William Buick(3) 100/1 79 12 16
21 1¾ Philanthropy 22 K A Ryan 3 8-3 Paul Hanagan 16/1 90 20 24


21 ran TIME 2m 29.23s (fast by 1.77s) TOTAL SP 127%
NON RUNNERS: Greek Envoy ,Oh Glory Be (USA)
1st OWNER: A P Patey BRED: Delahanty Stock Farm TRAINER: R Hannon
2nd OWNER: Scuderia Rencati Srl
3rd OWNER: John Connolly


....................................................................

The November Hcap last year puts him in with a good shout on weds compared to the likes of Sanbuch & Pippa Greene who are both way shorter in the b/f/c.He also likes a bit of cut in the ground and has been crying out for 14f imo - so as long as its not too soft on Weds i give him a chance at the price.

York 20 August 2008
3:25 TOTESPORT EBOR (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £ 1m6f GD-SFT


No. Form Horse Trainer RTF % Wgt Jockey
1 22-221 Mad Rush 46 L M Cumani 73 4 9-11 Jimmy Fortune 111 120 108 0-1 0-0
2 0-0851 Yellowstone 39 Jane Chapple-Hyam 0 4 9-10 John Egan 110 120 114 0-4 1-1
3 22-341 Sanbuch (ex4) 22 L M Cumani 73 4 9-9 Dane O´Neill 105 120 114 0-2 1-2
4 5-5453 Red Gala 53 Sir Michael Stoute 45 5 9-7 Ryan Moore 107 115 115 1-2 0-1
5 3-1318 Sugar Ray 24 Sir Michael Stoute 45 4 9-5 Ryan Moore 105 118 112 0-0 0-0
6 /330R0 Carte Diamond 19 B Ellison 20 7 9-4 104 118 111 1-1 0-2
7 16-982 Bauer 22 L M Cumani 73 5 9-3 Richard Hughes 103 123 108 0-0 1-2
8 5-4343 New Guinea 174 Saeed Bin Suroor 83 5 9-3 L Dettori 103 122 119 1-2 0-0
9 -43103 Supaseus 25 H Morrison 38 5 9-3 Steve Drowne 103 123 111 1-3 0-0
10 85-147 Bulwark 20 Ian Williams 17 6 9-2 102 120 104 0-4 1-5
11 153-06 Dansili Dancer 24 C G Cox 67 6 9-1 Philip Robinson 101 121 113 0-1 0-1
12 887422 Young Mick 24 G G Margarson 100 6 9-1 Robert Winston 101 124 116 1-5 0-2
13 241-49 All The Good 11 Saeed Bin Suroor 83 5 9-0 100 121 121 2-5 3-6
14 4-1157 Ajaan 46 H R A Cecil 60 4 9-0 T P Queally 100 122 102 1-2 1-2
15 2/44-7 Al Eile 173 (137J) John Queally "” 8 8-13 99 120 101 0-1 1-2
16 11-16 Milne Graden 22 J Noseda 75 4 8-12 Jamie Spencer 98 125 99 1-1 0-1
17 5-2730 Camps Bay 24 Mrs A J Perrett 38 4 8-12 98 122 111 0-1 0-2
18 -20275 Dunaskin 39 B Ellison 20 8 8-12 Tom Eaves 98 121 117 2-9 0-1
19 -11211 Wicked Daze (ex4) 26 Sir Mark Prescott 89 5 8-10 Seb Sanders 92 119 - 0-0 0-0
20 18-601 Pippa Greene (ex4) 24 P F I Cole 63 4 8-10 Shane Kelly 92 120 116 1-1 0-0
21 -12902 42Record Breaker 11 M Johnston 57 4 8-9 Greg Fairley 95 121 111 0-1 1-3
22 -02940 41Pevensey 24 J J Quinn 38 6 8-8 94 120 107 1-7 0-1
23 5-4410 40Hindu Kush 52 A P O´Brien 54 3 8-8 106 118 90 0-0 0-0
24 6-4540 39Smart Instinct 60 R A Fahey 42 4 8-8 94 121 98 0-1 0-0
25 -51581 38Gee Dee Nen (ex4) 11 M H Tompkins 60 5 8-8 Jimmy Quinn 90 119 83 1-7 1-4
26 -00074 37Players Please 22 M Johnston 57 4 8-7 R Hills 93 124 113 0-2 0-1
27 5-3694 36Wing Collar 39 T D Easterby 55 7 8-7 David Allan 93 122 120 0-3 3-10
28 1448-0 35Minkowski 22 J Noseda 75 5 8-7 93 119 117 2-4 0-1
29 2/0-20 34Salute Him 19 A J Martin "” 5 8-6 92 112 78 1-1 0-0
30 10-106 33Desert Sea 11 D W P Arbuthnot 17 5 8-6 92 121 119 0-3 1-2
31 198/19 32Bureaucrat 24 P J Hobbs "” 6 8-6 92 120 111 0-1 0-0
32 251353 31Formax 11 M P Tregoning 71 6 8-5 Pat Dobbs 91 119 109 1-6 0-2
33 756165 30Sahrati 11 C E Brittain 19 4 8-5 91 121 121 1-3 0-2
34 -52332 29Bogside Theatre


................................................................................................................

Ive copied the top 34 in the Ebor to compare.

Totesport Ebor Betting Odds



All OddsBest OddsSpreadsExchangesOdds Shortening
Odds Drifting

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33245909

9.00 Mad Rush Mad Rush 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 13/2 8 13/2 8 7 7 7 7 7 71/10
9.00 Bauer Bauer 7 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 38/5 8
9.00 Young Mick Young Mick 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 39/5 39/5
9.00 Wicked Daze Wicked Daze 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 15/2 7 7 7 8 8 8 36/5
11.00 Milne Graden Milne Graden 9 8 8 8 10 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 9 9 21/2 10
13.00 Pippa Greene Pippa Greene 11 12 12 10 12 12 10 10 10 11 10 10 12 12 12 25/2 12
15.00 Sanbuch Sanbuch 12 12 12 8 14 12 10 14 12 12 12 10 12 10 12 17 24
15.00 Arc Bleu Arc Bleu 14 14 119 127
17.00 Hindu Kush Hindu Kush 14 16 14 16 14 14 16 14 12 16 17 17
17.00 Ajaan Ajaan 14 14 16 16 16 14 14 14 16 16 16 14 16 14 14 37/2 19
21.00 Al Eile Al Eile 20 20 20 16 20 20 20 16 20 20 20 20 20 16 20 21 24
21.00 Bogside Theatre Bogside Theatre 20 16 20 16 20 16 20 20 20 16 20 20 20 20 21 24
21.00 Sugar Ray Sugar Ray 16 20 14 12 20 16 16 16 16 20 16 16 16 16 14 49 46
26.00 Salute Him Salute Him 16 20 16 14 25 16 14 20 16 16 16 14 12 16 14 20 33
26.00 Yellowstone Yellowstone 16 16 16 14 20 16 16 20 16 14 16 16 25 16 16 23 26
26.00 Minkowski Minkowski 25 16 16 16 25 20 20 16 16 20 16 20 20 16 25 28 26
26.00 All The Good All The Good 18 20 16 16 25 20 20 25 25 20 25 20 16 16 20 29 25
26.00 New Guinea New Guinea 20 25 20 16 25 20 20 20 25 20 25 20 25 20 20 39 33
26.00 Camps Bay Camps Bay 20 25 20 16 25 25 25 20 25 20 25 25 25 16 20 41 41
26.00 Bureaucrat Bureaucrat 20 25 25 16 25 20 20 20 25 20 25 20 25 20 20 43 39
26.00 Formax Formax 25 25 25 20 20 25 25 25 20 25 20 25 25 25 47 47
26.00 Red Gala Red Gala 20 25 20 16 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 20 20 59 38
26.00 Black Rock Black Rock 25
34.00 Gee Dee Nen Gee Dee Nen 25 25 25 20 28 25 25 20 25 25 25 25 33 20 33 35
34.00 Dansili Dancer Dansili Dancer 33 33 33 25 33 25 33 25 33 25 33 33 33 20 33 37 37
34.00 Supaseus Supaseus 33 25 33 25 25 25 33 33 33 33 25 25 25 16 39 39
34.00 Tifernati Tifernati 25 33 25 25 25 33 25 33 33 33 25 94 87
34.00 Laterly Laterly 33 25 33 33 33 33 33 25 25 139 81
41.00 Wing Collar Wing Collar 25 25 25 25 40 33 25 25 25 33 25 25 25 25 25 35 73
41.00 Players Please Players Please 33 33 33 33 33 40 33 25 33 33 33 33 40 33 33 37 34
41.00 Pevensey Pevensey 25 33 33 20 33 33 25 25 33 33 33 25 40 20 25 43 40
41.00 Crete Crete 33 33 33 25 40 33 33 28 33 40 25 74 65
41.00 Inventor Inventor 25 25 25 25 25 25 40 25 74 61
41.00 Bulwark Bulwark 40 33 33 25 33 33 33 40 33 40 33 33 25 25 84 83
41.00 Carte Diamond Carte Diamond 33 33 33 25 40 33 33 40 40 40 33 40 40 25 109 61
41.00 Record Breaker Record Breaker 33 40 33 33 40 33 33 33 33 33 33 40 25 25 109 107
41.00 Rationale Rationale 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 40 33 129 127
41.00 Sahrati Sahrati 25 33 33 25 25 33 40 28 40 25 40 33 25 159 157
41.00 La Vecchia Scuola La Vecchia Scuola 33 33 33 25 33 33 33 33 40 33 33 159 157
41.00 Body Gold Body Gold 40 40
51.00 Tropical Strait Tropical Strait 33 25 25 40 25 20 33 33 33 25 50 16 25 41 63
51.00 First Avenue First Avenue 40 33 40 33 40 50 40 40 33 69 69
51.00 Desert Sea Desert Sea 40 40 33 25 33 33 33 50 33 50 33 33 25 74 73
51.00 Whenever Whenever 33 33 50 33 33 25 33 25 33 84 83
51.00 Amanda Carter Amanda Carter 50 50 50 50 50 89 87
51.00 Dunaskin Dunaskin 40 50 40 33 50 50 33 40 40 40 50 50 40 33 94 75
51.00 Smart Instinct Smart Instinct 33 33 33 33 50 40 33 33 33 33 33 33 40 33 99 89
51.00 Judgethemoment Judgethemoment 50 50 50 50 50 50 33 50 129 127
51.00 Akarem Akarem 40 50 50 33 40 33 50 33 50 40 50 40 25 139 137
51.00 Toldo Toldo 50 50 50 50 50 40 50 50 139 137
51.00 North Parade North Parade 50 50 50 50 40 50 33 50 139 137
51.00 Cool Judgement Cool Judgement 50 33 33 33 50 33 50 33 149 129
51.00 Coyote Creek Coyote Creek 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 149 147
51.00 Mudawin Mudawin 40 50 33 25 40 40 33 25 33 40 40 33 259 254
51.00 Tilt Tilt 50
67.00 Birkside Birkside 50 50 50 40 50 40 50 50 50 50 66 40 129 121
67.00 Dancing Abbie Dancing Abbie 66 50 50 40 66 40 66 50 40 129 119
67.00 Fregate Island Fregate Island 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 129 127
67.00 Trachonitis Trachonitis 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 129
67.00 Risk Risk 66 50 50 66 50 66 50 129 127
67.00 Road To Mandalay Road To Mandalay 66
101.00 Gordonsville Gordonsville 100 100 100 100 100 100 119 117
101.00 Invasion Invasion 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 139 137
101.00 Nanton Nanton 66 100 66 66 66 100 66 100 66 66 139 137
101.00 Yossi Yossi 66 100 66 66 100 66 100 80 66 219 214
151.00 Kasthari Kasthari 66 100 66 66 66 66 100 66 100 66 150 66 66 129 127

Each-way terms 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4 4
1/4


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Betting at the Moment.

36.0 still available for a few quid on betfair you cant go wrong at that price for a wee trade IF he turns up.

I understand the cut of point would be 20 Pippa Greene if they all stood their ground.

Les

Just to be sure I am understanding the point you are interested in, Braashee had won a 204 and Van der Wheil selected him for a 713, so one could refer to him as having a rating of 29% (ie his best win had been in a race 29% of the value of the one for which Van der Wheil selected him). Is this the measure you are interested in? If so, I'll have a glance through the Excel sheet but I doubt there are many much lower than 29%

yes george thats magic just what i,m looking for thanks

wattie went through the ebor to see who was best in at the weights on last 3 runnings they are arc bleu126,laterly123,bauer121,sanbuch119,and cold judgement118 i,ll go for one of these,but you eye has to be drawn to arc bleu this guy knows the time of day as they say

Arc Bleu is number 35 les would need more than half the top 20 rated to defect to get in or a few of those from 21 to 34 not to take up the engagement.