LES
Just had a quick look at the Geoffrey Freer and there are still 20 runners at present, and from memory i think this is usually a race with small fields so lets see what horses turn up on saturday

of the 3 horses you mention i can not trust Geordieland this horse has failed to go through with its efort on to many ocasions. Sixties Icon im not sure about its penultimate race. Mad Rush appears to be running well in some decent prize money races.

if you can forgive its penultimate race i think sixties icon will have a good shout

LES
Do you actualluy forgive Sixties Icon penultimate race, if you do may i ask why.

quote:

Originally posted by paul:
JOHNY D HAS GOT THE HUMP BECAUSE HE DONT LIKE FULHAM AND FOR SOME REASON HE THINKS GEORGE IS FULHAM BUT HE CAN NOT EXPLAIN WHY, JUST LIKE HE CAN NOT EXPLAIN VDW, BUT WHO GIVES A S**T, ANSWER NO ONE

I THINK JOHNY D GET'S MORE LIKE BUBBLES , PRO , INVESTOR EVERY TIME HE GO'ES INTO HIS LITTLE TEENAGE I HATE EVERYONE MOOD , BUT AGAIN WHO GVE'S A S**T

Wonderful post, Paul, really got your finger on the pulse, haven't you?
The reference to Fulham was in response to GJ's Fulhamesque penchant for never having the balls to commit himself to a selection before the race, but always being the expert after it.
For the record, I stand by the view that he (GJ) is not at all what he would have us believe; i.e., some fresh-faced tyro dipping his toe into VDW waters for the first time.

Sean

If you all see is a hostile personage who spends the majority of his time on here sniping, I suggest you are looking in the mirror too much.

Les

With both the runners and the going being unkown quantities as yet, it's far too early for any reasonable appraisal of the GF.
I'm away all day Friday, but will hopefully put up my views before the race as usual. Wonder how many of these other always helpful souls will do the same? Maybe it's they who are afraid of what the bottom line tells us?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

JOHND

BUT ALWAYS BEING THE EXPERT AFTER IT,

does that sentence not remind yourself of someone a little bit closer to home

Only one bet looks to fulfil the criteria to me today:
Beverley,315,William Blake

Fingers and toes crossed!!

being at work all day friday and early shift saturday have no time at all to go through anything this weekend but thought someone other than johd or wattie may want to go through something this weekend,paul as far as forgiving sixties icon it looks it just put in a bad one the trainers horses were running poorly at that time it is the top ability horse by far forgive the penultimate race puts it bang in there

tell you what paul i may do the same with paco boy to make it a selection as well it looks to have been tried to highly 2nd lto

Les

Sixties Icon is the class horse, should have no problems with the distance or the ground, and looks much the likeliest winner. However it's dangerous to ignore his penultimate run as he is inconsistent, and has run well below form in 3 of his last 6 races.
Apparently the horse has a wind problem, which may not manifest unless he is under duress, (Which he may not be at all in this field), and should win comfortably, but not something I'd bet on.

thanks very much johnd because of time restraints will have to put up a few selections now will go with these in 5e/w round robin for my saturday bet sixties icon,paco boy,and conquest,all high in ability but lacking in consistencey,plenty holes in those selections but because of time it will have to be

LES
The GF is now down to 11 horses ,from my short list of the 5 most consistent i have narrowed the field down to Pepertree Lane currently around 9/1 and Donegal currently around 9/2 a book will be made

happy enough with 2 of my selections paco and sixties am a bit concerned with conquest top ability and class dropping thought myself it would be favorite its on so will need to hope for the best yes paul looked at donegal and went for the better ability rated horse

Les

Disagree that Paco Boy is lacking in consistency; there is more to consistency than just adding up the numbers. PB is highly consistent, and should win this comfortably.
Conquest is inconsistent and, that apart, has 11lb more to carry on softer ground. In contrast Valerie Borzov (another more consistent than bare form figures indicate)has 7lb less to carry on better ground than he won on lto.
As I said earlier, Sixties Icon is much the likeliest winner in the GF, so here's hoping you at least get the double up.
Disappointing that all these experts on here can't muster a single selection between them.

Here is my attempt at vdw-type selection:

THE VDW race is the 3.15 Newbury:
Paco Boy ( clear)

The 2nd best race is 2.40 Newbury:
Sixties Icon
Geordieland
Peppertree Lane.

Problems:
Sixties may be a bit slow. The wind problem that johnd mentioned, perhaps? Otherwise, clear on vdw criteria, and on connections, but not CD.

Geordieland has a poor strike rate and not CD.

Peppertree Lane is not really in the same earnings bracket as the other two, BUT has a good SR and CD. Speed looks OK too.

So I make it between Sixties and Peppertree.

No bet would be my verdict, because of " Conflict".

In reality, the only thing I'd do myself is a small EW on Peppertree.

paco boy, sixties icon..

Sixties Icon and Paco Boy seem popular and I can see why, especially as they are class horses in their races. But I find myself unsure if they are the class/form horses in their races, as from some of Van der Wheil's examples one could argue that in both cases other consistent horses have better recent form. Geordieland's second to Yeats, and Alexandros's second to River Proud strike me as arguably better form than Sixties Icon and Paco Boy's defeats of Galactic Star and Stimulation, respectively.

What I can't yet work out is how Van der Wheil balanced off ability and form, as he seems to have done so in some of his examples, so at present I continue to wait for races where that isn't an issue at all. So for the moment at least I'm leaving the likes of Sixties Icon and Paco Boy.

I can't get anywhere near a bet in the Great St Wilfred. The three consistent horses are well outside the top four on ability.

Geordieland (each way)
Paco Boy

Have a wee fitba line on today with Ladbrokes as that was the nearest betting shop to the family shopping.

Banker - Aston Villa to beat Manchester City 5/6
Perm - Fulham to Draw or Away Win at Hull 9/4 & 6/4
Perm - Wigan to Draw or Away Win at West Ham 13/5 & 3/1
Perm - Wycombe to Draw or Away Win at Chester 11/5 & 11/8

8 X £15 Accumulator = £120.

400R:

Assuming that the draw will indeed dominate this race I have decided to restrict all my analysis to only those horses drawn from 13 upwards.

That leaves me with in racecard order:

Fullandby
Hogmaneigh
Dhaular Dhar
Valery Borzov
Baby Strange
Patavellian
Ebraam
Ajigolo

These eight horses rate an impressive strength of 98, and interestingly they contain only two 4yos and only one of Mr Nicholls four entries.

Fullandby has had two v good runs this season, lto and at Nmk in may, and has not yet gone to the winners enclosure. The 3rd at Nmk rates a 95 and the lto 2nd a 97. On the downside he's had no help from the Handicapper and whilst a place looks value at 7/4 the win is no bargain at 8/1.

Hogmaneigh looks like he is coming to the boil and lto bristles with promise. He'd won the 'Epsom Dash' the year before off a mark only 1lb lower but lto he was carrying 7lbs more than his win. However his RP ratings for both races are identical and are his career bests. It is now 13 months since his last win (the same Epsom Dash of 07), and his ratings confirm he is fizzing. The current 11/1 on BF looks worth a poke.

Dhaular Dhar is another tough customer but up against 100 rated sprinters over 6f when he is really a 7f horse doesn't give him the air of authority I'm looking for here.

Valery Borzov got a rave review from me a fortnight ago only for Mr Nicholls to spend what I consider to be the horse's considerable talent on a C3, which, whilst admittedly having a better than normal prize for the class, was still something much less than what I thought he could take. He got 6lbs for that and now has a mark of 98, 4lbs more than when I flagged him up. However that win was a comfortable one along the lines of his signposting run at Thirsk in May, and he still remains in the position of lacking a win commensurate with either his mark or his ability. I can't leave him out today.

Baby Strange gives me the feeling that he has blown his chances for the timebeing. After two excellent runs on the quick he's up 6lbs and is being asked to go one better on yielding ground. Horses aren't machines and I think this one will show a downturn today.

Patavellian has been running poorly of late and although he does have the class to win this I would have wanted to see some spark of it a fortnight ago.

Ebraam doesn't have the turf form to suggest he's got the class for this.

Ajigolo is the sort of Channon horse who wins without rhyme or reason. On the face of it he's out of form but that means nothing with one from this stable, I won't back him and if he wins the only thing to do is be philosophical about it!

Jib - always look at at your contributions with interest - very best of luck today.