'Rude', 'Stupid', 'Patronisng', I may be; also honest, a quality you wouldn't recognise.

MTOTO

Why would you need to poach George, i do not understand

Mtoto

I was very pressed yesterday, but feel I should really have explained in similar detail to you how I think Van der Wheil would have evaluated the Park Express race. A very different approach to yours but a similar outcome.

Consistent horses: Fleeting Affair, Mill on the Floss and Santiki as having the three lowest consistency figures from the first five in the Life's forecast (Park Express and Sue Grundy were the other two in the first five of the forecast). Plus Park Express on the same basis as Prominent King, Righthand Man, Roushayd etc.

Probables: in this case all four of the consistent horses.

Ability: on the basic AR, Mill on the Floss 100, Park Express 24, Santiki 22 and Fleeting Affair 20. But on the sf-based check rating Van der Wheil suggested for this type of horse we get a different picture: Park Express 80, Mill on the Floss 69, Santiki 63 and Fleeting Affair 61.

Form: working from the basic AR ranking, Mill on the Floss seems to have the best form due to her run in the class 379 Ribblesdale, where she came 2nd, Santiki 3rd and Park Express fourth, and had that been all three horses' last race before the Lancashire Oaks I can't see that the selection could have been any other than Mill on the Floss, though whether Van der Wheil would have regarded her as strong enough to bet, given the ability ranking on the sf basis, must be questionable.

However, Park Express had a further run, in a race of lower class (231) than the Ribblesdale. That race was won by a horse with form from the class 789 Irish 1000 Guineas though, and the 2nd had previously come 2nd in the Irish 1000 Guineas. So I am assuming that Van der Wheil regarded the class 231 as in fact a stronger race than the Ribblesdale, and that by her performance in that race Park Express had demonstrated improvement sufficient for him to be confident that she would reverse the Ribblesdale placings with Mill on the Floss and Santiki.

My difficulty remains, given the various placings etc in the Irish 1000 Guineas, how could one be sure that Park Express had actually improved? Unless I am missing something that makes it clearer, I can't see me backing the equivalent of Park Express in a current race.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: George Johns,

was roushayd top weight in the old newton cup,or in top 4 weights

LES

Roushayd was top weight with 9-10 and High Tension was next in the weights with 9-2 hope that helps

Les

If you put "Roushayd" as the subject and "Lee" as the author into the advanced search facility here, you will find a number of posts in which Roushayd is discussed. They are all useful, but the one timed at 10.52am on 24 November 2004 I have found particularly helpful in trying to get to grips with Van der Wheil's thinking.

without form books it can be difficult but want to see if there are anything going on
with top weight in handicaps and top on ability as roushayd

quote:

Why would you need to poach George, i do not understand

Paul,

I have no idea, perhaps you are asking the wrong person.

Be Lucky

Les

Of 75 main Van der Wheil selections on my list, 21 were top rated on his ability rating but only a minority of the 21 were in handicaps.

Four of the top ability rated in handicaps were also top weighted, and three of these Van der Wheil either stated were bets or described them as "certainties". But the fourth, Canny Danny, he said was not a bet as it was giving too much weight away.

quote:

Originally posted by les henderson:
without form books it can be difficult but want to see if there are anything going on
with top weight in handicaps and top on ability as roushayd

Les

It is pointless trying to make a system out of a method.
Until you begin to come to terms with how VDW read form, you will never really grasp the most important weapon in his armoury. No need for form books in Roushayd's case either, as there is enough on RP online for an understanding to be gained.

GJ

I don't have the 1986 flat form book. However, I don't need one to tell you that VDW did regard Park Express's last run as a vital part of his reasoning, as he did with all his selections.
As I said recently, how else would he have known it was poised to win?
One thing is certain - he didn't guess!

quote:

Of 75 main Van der Wheil selections on my list, 21 were top rated on his ability rating

George,

Have to say I'm very surprised at that statistic. On my count of the first 36 selections only 6 were top rated for ability, this is up to the time the A/R was introduced. The fact that the next 10 selections produced 7 top rated selections is one of the facts that gives me grave doubts about the rating being used before that time. + it is worth noting of these 10 selections two were deemed not worthy of backing. I also note of the four selections VDW said he back only one was top rated.

Be Lucky

Johnd

The only problem I have with your comment is the word "known". "Judged" strikes me as a better one to describe Van der Wheil's position prior to the race, and although the pre race circumstances made it likely he would be right, I'm not convinced it was a "certainty" call.

Mtoto

The 20 (not 21, I misread a figure) I have as top rated on the main ability rating are:

Ascenia
Beat the Retreat
Buckskin
Canny Danny 1
Canny Danny 2
Cool Gin
Crown Matrimonial
Desert Orchid (8/4/87)
Diamond Edge
Ela-Mana-Mou
Hawaiian Sound
Ile de Chypre
Little Owl 1
Man of Vision
Parkhouse
Roushayd
Royal Bond
Von Trappe
Wing and a Prayer
Zilzal

thanks john had a wee look at roushayd on rp site i didnt know it went back that far have a more indepth look tomorrow looks to be giving consistency ,weight and price away in the epsom race

George J

Can you give me details of Park Express' win before the Lancashire Oaks? Also, do I take it that you have rounded up Santiki's win?

Garston

Park Express's win in 1986 prior to the Lancashire Oaks isn't in the Form Book. All I know of it is from the Life form section: it was a class 35, 8f race at Phoenix Park on heavy.

Yes, Santiki's win was in a race valued at £2,180 so I rounded it to 22 for AR purposes.

quote:

The 20 (not 21, I misread a figure) I have as top rated on the main ability rating are:

George,

Looking at the list I can see no mistakes, but have to say it does nothing to change my mind about the use or otherwise of that A/R. It doesn't change the fact that only 6 of the first 36 selections were top rated for ability. Can it really be coincidence that after the introduction of the rating this changes to 14 selections from 39?

The rating is introduced, and suddenly there are 4 winning selections, all top rated on the same day. All gaining the certainty tag, also introduced at the same time. Have to say all this does nothing to convince me about the use of the rating or phrases. It just shows me there is a change of practice and some carefully chosen examples being used to show the "worth" of this rating.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

The March 1981 article suggests Van der Wheil was particularly concerned with those horses with one of the four highest ability ratings. Subject to any errors I've made, ALL the selections he named as bets, or described as "certainties" or "outstanding", were in the four highest except for two in the later years, Pipsted and Pegwell Bay, both of which were fifth. This suggests to me the importance Van der Wheil attached to the rating and that, as Johnd has pointed out, Van der Wheil said it should be regarded as a guide. So occasionally backing a strong looking selection that was fifth in the ranking seems reasonable.

Obviously there are lots of selections which were neither stated to be bets nor described as "certainties" or "outstanding". I have a list of 29 of these and 16 were ranked fifth or lower in the ability ranking, though some may have improved when the sf-based supplementary rating was considered. Some of these 16 look very dodgy to me and I'd be surprised if many of them were bets, if Van der Wheil suggested he was truly using an 80+% strike rate threshold. (On this last point there is an interesting post by Lee in the archive, found by "Lee" as author and "Baronet" as subject, with which, the more I study the examples, I very much agree.)

George may i ask if you have been on Gummy previously under a different username?.

Walter

No (not been a member).