we are back at all our yesterdays again so can borderlescott put in a repeat performance of 2 years ago with 5lbs more to carry to take the stewards cup i think it can showed the best form of the race 3rd lto and i think it looks a poor stewards cup give us your thoughts for a future race come on i know you want to

quote:

Originally posted by George Johns:
Johnd

I've named the four probables in the race for which Mr Hall selected Baronet, and the numbers which match them are 5, 4, 6 and 3, as members who have resolved that particular aspect of the Van der Wheil puzzle will of course be able to confirm. Care to reciprocate by naming the probables, and giving the numbers, for any other race in "The Golden Years" (except of course the Erin!)? Then we'll all know where we stand.

GJ

Believe it or not, I know exactly where I stand, and it has little to do with the ability ratings you feel are so fundamental.
As Les H suggests, perhaps it would be better to discuss forthcoming races, and name the probables beforehand, than any amount of backfitting old races?
Until then, you have resolved nothing!

not a great price but infallible must have good chance if it goes on the ground

Johnd

Last night I was reading the articles in one of Tony Peach's booklets, "Betting the VDW Way", and there is a paragraph (the sixth complete one on page 8 ("Interested punters ...")) which seems to me very pertinent.

Following Van der Wheil's metaphor, item 8 of "The Golden Years" shows that being able to identify the probables is just the second stop on the way. As far as I can see, working out exactly how Van der Wheil evaluated the form of the probables to identify what he termed the "class/form" horse (article dated 26 January 1985 in "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune") seems to be the next leg of the journey, on which I am now embarked (with, to switch to your insightful observation, magnifying glass in hand).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: George Johns,

Hi folks
Glorious Goodwood
come on VDWites give us some winners even if it is after the event
good luck
jim

Johnd
did you take a view on Ghimar Galway 8.10 and Isle of Capri at Windsor last night ?

pd

Tbh, I didn't even realise Galway was on until I saw the results this morning a quick glance at the other cards on Sunday was enough to put me off any further interest.
Wish I had, now though. Easy handicap winners like Ghimar are always interesting, before and after the race.

I am on course all week,and thought Ghimar was a good opportunity,the rain certainly helped.

Applying the techniques we use in our main field (health economics) is already producing useful results from the Van der Wheil material.

George,

I know nothing about research techniques, but can I ask do these techniques work with the written word as opposed to figures and accounts? I ask because I'm 100% convinced VDW was trying to explain something WITHOUT making a very important fact/idea obvious.

I've named the four probables in the race for which Mr Hall selected Baronet, and the numbers which match them are 5, 4, 6 and 3, as members who have resolved that particular aspect of the Van der Wheil puzzle will of course be able to confirm.

I'm not for one moment saying you are wrong, just pointing out I think I have a handle on those figures and my answer doesn't agree with yours. I make the numbers for those horses (in the same order) 5 3 4 4. To be honest I haven't spent a lot of time on them as I don't think they have anything to do with probability, I think they are just a ranking of those horses for consistency. As VDW showed he could have several horse who's figures add up to say 6, and he shwed at least three different % of their chances. For me the probables can only be the top rated consistent horses in any given race.

**********

I hadn't realised myself until Lee pointed it out some time ago but, in all the examples the selection has (relatively) the best lto form in the race.

JohnD,

While I have a lot of respect for Lee, I can see no way that idea can be correct. I can think of many selections who fail on that thinking. However as you say I'm using the wrong measurement of form I won't bother going into detail. I will ask though can you make the idea fit for Ekbalco 9th last time out (but in every way fitting the methods as I see them).

Be Lucky

[quote]jim
Junior Member
Posted July 29, 2008 08:47 AM Hide Post
Hi folks
Glorious Goodwood
come on VDWites give us some winners even if it is after the event
good luck
jim
..................................................

Goodwood 2.15

Gulf Express win & place 16.5 & 3.85 first(4) on the exchanges gone 30%-70%.

This one went into (Walters Notebook) in early May - when a btn fav at Newmarket they really came for him that day in the race won by Proponent at 8/1.Ive been watching him closely since and today is the first time that he has been condsidered.However being drawn in coffin number (3) will make thing`s very difficult as there is pace in the high draws and the race could well be over for him before he manages to get a foothold. Played to reduced (WN) stakes - a place would be nice.

Mtoto

No, the research techniques where my colleagues and I can claim some expertise are essentially statistical. Fortunately much of Van der Wheil's approach seems to be based on figures, though of course I can see that there is much more than just the figures to consider.

Van der Wheil seems to have been at home with numerical analysis and to have had a clear sense of probability (eg the comment re the price he would have accepted on Little Owl). Although the numbers attached to his probables are not related to probability in the simple 0.5 heads, 0.5 tails sense, I think he was entitled to use the term probables as I am presuming from a comment he made in the March 1981 article that he had researched this particular element and found that it did indeed narrow the field in a helpful way.

I have applied his consistency and probables filters to quite a lot of the Wolverhampton races which I looked at over the AW season and, as one would predict, both exclude some winners. But what I've done so far suggests they achieve the goal Van der Wheil stated - narrowing fields to horses from which winners come disproportionately often.

Lets celebrate .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrCuZd9hed0

back with a bang i see wattie

hi folks
great pick walter
good luck
jim

Aye les ah come back especial tae tell yaes - dont know why? (Ahm not supposed tae ye know) must hiv a screw loose or sommit!.Never mind that`s Gulf Express done n` dusted noo and aff ma list it`s been well worth the effort wi him. Reduced stakes for everyone concerned but the price win & place more than made up for that .

Thanks Jim.

paco boy an old one of yours walter tried to high lto

Aye les ive found over the years that the (WN) horses often win again after they are discarded, there`s probably a good reason for that.

WALTER
WELL DONE , HOW DO YOU DO IT

George Johns

Obviously I've missed something. You write, "Van der Wheil seems to have been at home with numerical analysis". Would you mind elaborating on this? In my reading of VDW, albeit some time ago, I failed to discern anything other than a simple arithmetical approach from him. If you have discovered something in his writing of a mathematical nature this would be of more interest to me than any method of racing analysis.

Good skill
Jimmy