Les

IF the weight issue is as summarised last night - and I've only had time to check a few so far - it certainly helped save the day for me with Hunting Country. (If you are interested in this aspect there is what may be prove to be a helpful post on page 313 of the archived VDW thread relating to a horse called Spirit Leader.)

Given how strong Hunting Country looked from the ability and consistency perspectives, I wouldn't have wanted to back against him today. But had he not been in the field the winner, Australia Day, and Presvis were equal on ability and I wouldn't have been confident of naming the winner if they'd been the only two runners.

yes george had a wee think about the big handicap winners i,ve backed over the years most not all were weight droppers may go back to watching for them going around in circles a wee bit,saying that ive picked up a great deal on here and the 20 percent win 80 percent place is a great bet did,nt back today because of the negative vibes on here thanks a lot

Les

quote:

going around in circles a wee bit

I know exactly how you feel, though I must say I think I see a light in the distance. There are such a lot of examples!

well here,s my two for the weekend one a vdw selection[i think]other i had a wee squeak for they should give a good e/w double,the vdw selection carniolarin the 3.40 at ascot if they can get a good apprentice to do 7.7 even if not i think it looks good and a good price i hope.the secound is seyaadiin the 4.30 at newcastle ran a good race lto when weights were all wrong in a seller back in handicap and was speaking to owners at hamilton they said they wanted a win at newcastle they were geordies any thoughts would be welcome cheers

carniolar is a non runner all that work for nothing o well

Les

In the 3.40Asc, Lovelace is the clear class horse, carries 2lb less than lto, is 3lb better off with Mastership who was behind him last time, and is 7lb well in according to his OR. I wouldn't back anything to beat him!

Hello

I just thought I may pop in to preamble as it appears I have not been discontinued.

It appears that some have moved on, and as a group you should welcome GJ with open arms (having read posts for the time available) for I fear he is not far from the initiative but there may well be an underlying tremble.

I am still at a loss why most of you do not use your mirrors.

Ponder at the card in front of you and then proceed to get your supposed three. From your three then check your mirrors.

If your mirror is clouded then leave alone if not a bet MAY be struck.

THANK YOU

Vincent

Not entirely sure how to use the mirrors correctly, Vincent, but
in today's big race
I made D.o.M the clear pick, ahead of Lucarno,

BUT

when I look in the mirror, I see Youmzain fast a-coming!

I realise this isn't the point you're making, but

no bet there for me.


In the 3.40,
I'd agree with johnd's pick: Lovelace, but I'd go Win and Place to the chosen ratio.

Hi folks
Quick way to look in mirrors racing post horse stats.
percentage win and amount won on going distance class
if good keep reversing
good luck
jim

Johnd

Surely Giganticus is the class horse in the 3.40? When referring to Lovelace, were you meaning the class/form horse as per the 26 January 1985 article in "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune"? I agree your conclusion, though, and wouldn't wish to back anything against Lovelace even though I'm not sure he is the VDW class/form horse.


Vincent

I've still got a lot of examples to work through, but Duke of Marmalade looks very strong from what I've understood of the method so far.

Addressing your thought about mirrors, the only weakness I can see with Duke of Marmalade is whether he will get 12f, for which there is no public evidence, but comments by the trainer which may, or may not, be meant to be helpful to the general public. It is clear that VDW did not require all his bets to be proven over the trip for which he made them selections, but given the short price I shall be leaving Duke of Marmalade today because of that open question. I'd be glad to know if that is the sort of issue you meant we should be picking up by looking in mirrors.

Been off the air for a few days as I've been making my way home.

I'm only having one bet today but I have a v v strong feeling about it.

Before the Bunbury Cup, (11th July), I came across Capricorn Run 340Asc. Here are the notes I made about it before the off:

'Capricorn Run, 103, has had a magnificent AW career. It looks as if connections have decided to switch to turf and the result looks impressive. If Capricorn Run was a top class hcpper on the sand it looks possible that he's G3 on the turf. Lto was his first turf run after the sand and he was sent straight in to the furnace in the form of the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. No one could have expected much as the 6f was too short and the opposition represented the best turf sprint hcppers, not surprisingly he went off at 40/1. Not only did he get within 3ls of the winner coming 6th of 27 but he had 19 100+ rated horses behind him! The OH has dropped him 2lbs for it, which must have delighted his people even more. If nothing else the current 54/1 on BF must represent great lay back potential for this confirmed front runner.'

In the Bunbury Capricorn Run did not run from the front being held up and finishing 9th of 18 and 4.75ls behind the winner.

Next Capricorn Run went up to Hamilton on the 18th to run in the, too short for him, 6f C2 hcp where once again he was kept out the back.

Looking at his recent history I make the case as such;

Knowing they have a very classy animal on their hands connections realize that the big prizes are not found on the sand and decide to switch to the turf.

They try Capricorn Run out at Ascot on the 21st June in a race that is too short for him, but which he runs in his successful front running style, and he puts in a blinder. This performance is simply magnificent so they look for a prize commensurate with the horse's ability.

Looking at the racing calender they see the 93k Totesport at the same track and over his best distance in 6 weeks time. They decide this is the race they are going to win.

In the meantime they run the horse twice but without employing his winning tactics to hone even further his condition and create the impression of a horse that is weighted to the hilt.

So far I've got $40 on at an average of 136/1 and I'm not finished yet! Though I will be laying back as and when I can.

GJ

Giganticus may be top on a/r, not the class horse.
Though his prize money average may be better, he does not have the same form in the same class as Lovelace. A quick check shows they have met 3 times, with L coming out best on each occasion.
Repeat after me.................ABILITY RATINGS ARE A GUIDE!

Johnd

I'm drawing on the penultimate paragraph of item 36 of "The Golden Years".

quote:

Surely Giganticus is the class horse in the 3.40

Lovelace has the best form of the first 3 in the betting
But how do you discount lightly raced MUSAALEM, and redford who have not done anything wrong
Redford possibly Soft ground biased but do you know for definate
How can anyone back against horses they cant judge its guess work
The race is a total minefield from the start
Best described as Kamikaze

JIB
Hope yours wins but
Dont see him as a true front runner on evidence so far

Boozer

For the avoidance of doubt, my reference to Giganticus was a matter of clarifying terms, not suggesting the likely winner, still less a bet.

George

Regardless of the result here
My point is
Lightly raced 3yo and in this case 4yo cannot be discounted as easily as it is after the race when the result is known,they could be anything
Of which VDW methodolgy seems to be based

going back a few years
Teenoso started off by winning £1360 Mdn race

My Saturday dabble will be Ellemujie (255 Newmarket)

of the 4 races i went through and cariolan being a non runner the 3.05,3.40,5.30 and 3.45 only lesson in humility at 12/1 was the only winner says it all i think lol

quote:

Originally posted by boozer:

Lovelace has the best form of the first 3 in the betting
But how do you discount lightly raced MUSAALEM, and redford who have not done anything wrong
Redford possibly Soft ground biased but do you know for definate
How can anyone back against horses they cant judge its guess work
The race is a total minefield from the start
Best described as Kamikaze

Not nearly as hard to discount as you make it sound, Boozer.
Redford has had 2 runs on g/f, both times running well below any other rating he has achieved.
Musaalem had won 2x7f races, both on easy tracks, and had both won by the distance. He then showed significant improvement dropped back to 6f, where he had the race won 2 out. Hardly the sign of a horse needing a step up in trip, and not surprisingly he weakened over today's stiff 7f.
As I keep saying, he really did spell it all out. Fortunately, few believed him.

I wish it was that easy JD

The race is over but
would you have backed lovelace to beat Laa rayb