Nicholls horse Inxile goes into my notebook as it was a very good run going on weight carried and very little experience

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:

quote:

Originally posted by les henderson:
hope your on johnd

Not at all Les, though it should be noted that, despite being 10lb worse off (inc wfa allowance), she beat Princess Ellis easier than she did last time they met
There's a reason for that, but it won't be found outside of SIAO!
Let them study their ancient examples, and discuss them till the cows come home, until they understand he did SPELL IT ALL OUT, they're just the dreamers they always were.

Johnd,

It's quite obvious from your posts that you think you have spotted something of great value in SIAO. That's understandable, most elements I think are of value are contained in that article in one way or another.

What I find more difficult to understand is your confessed reluctance to test your hypotheses against other VDW examples.

I've no idea if your theories from SIAO are the same as mine or completely different so I'm not making any comment on the validity of them, just this seemimg reluctance to cross check them. It's almost as though you are afraid of finding that they don't hold good.

A 'dreamer' in my book is somebody who thinks they have found the solution without cross-checking the evidence and conclusions. A more 'realistic' approach surely is to cross-check the findings where possible, even though 99% of the time it will throw you straight back to square one.

There have been many occasions over the years where I thought I'd spotted another critical element, sadly on most of those occasions I was indeed being a 'dreamer' as later evidence proved. However, without cross-checking my theories I'd still be dreaming now.

That doesn't mean I think I've spotted everything of value, far from it but I'm certainly much further on than if I'd just accepted my initial conclusions as gospel.

Andy Capper

And you assume I haven't checked ?

the ability rating expressed as percentage of the field would it be worth the bother?

LES
WHAT DO YOU MEAN

its show the ability rating as a percentage ie did a race tomorrow and salute in the last race at sandown has a rating of 109 its 31% of the ability of the whole race does it make it a good thing?

ok before some smart arse posts its 28.5%

LES
If i understand you correctly,all you have done is turn the ability figure into a % figure this does not make the horse in question any better or worse. Hope i have understood you corectly.

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
Andy Capper

And you assume I haven't checked ?

John,

Apologies, you are of course correct, that was an assumption on my part.

I'd been catching up on some old threads on this forum and I'd just read an old contribution of yours where you stated:

quote:

Of those c/f examples that VDW gave, the ones that I recall do fit the method as I now see it, completely and unambiguously; If you are asking me to verify this by once more trawling through old form books, I no longer feel it necessary.

That statement together with your seeming antipathy towards 'ancient examples' led me to that assumption. I do acknowledge though that the post I quoted of yours dates back to November 2002!!! (It's very easy to forget the time factor when looking at old posts and view them in the today) and that you may well have revised your stance in the intervening years and done the verification.

I must confess though, I don't understand why you are so down on these 'ancient examples'. For my part, I'd never have spotted the common denominator in VDW's selections without countless hours poring over form books and consequently would not have grasped much of what VDW was trying to convey in the SIAO letter.

quote:

Originally posted by Andy Capper:


I must confess though, I don't understand why you are so down on these 'ancient examples'. For my part, I'd never have spotted the common denominator in VDW's selections without countless hours poring over form books and consequently would not have grasped much of what VDW was trying to convey in the SIAO letter.

AC

Mainly because I feel it's putting the cart before the horse.
Until one grasps the real message in SIAO, why spend countless hours researching something one doesn't understand when they could, more fruitfully, spend their time getting to grips with what VDW wrote in that article, and what he said about it later.
Also, the old form books are expensive and not easy to acquire and I still feel that the aspirant VDW'er would be much better served by an understanding gained through contemporary racing, where the form and results are much easier available, and can also be tested before the race.
All the above of course assumes that the method is simple, as VDW clearly indicated when he said: "Once you find it, you'll wonder how on earth you could miss it", and which hardly suggests one needs a degree in digging up old bones.

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
it should be noted that, despite being 10lb worse off (inc wfa allowance), she beat Princess Ellis easier than she did last time they met
There's a reason for that, but it won't be found outside of SIAO!

Les

Though the weight prevents her from being a good thing, Princess Ellis (3.20 Catt) should run better today.

yes john saw that one and that you mentioned it earlier 20%/80% win and place for me thanks

John,

I can't agree with your last post. To me it suggests completely ignoring what I consider to be one of the important paragraphs that VDW wrote.

To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important, how they performed in the latter stages of each race.

Why would VDW tell people to study the form of all concerned if he didn't think it necessary?

That, of course, was much easier at the time the letters were penned. Many people (myself included) used to keep the pull out returns from the Handicap Book. Today, it means finding those old form books to do the task.

That somebody could piece together a very succesful method by just applying his words to current racing isn't in doubt. I suspect many people have done just that. But... If it's VDW's method we are trying to discover then I don't think you can afford to ignore that which he tells us is necessary.

paul hope to also turn 2 sets of ratings into percentages but it will be the add ons and amounts which will be a big problem,add ons will be,class in which they ran,ect,ect from the little owl example ,any help will be welcome lol

Les,

I'm not sure about this percentage idea of yours, but it may be a useful ploy.

I thought your use of the two speed figures may be good. In fact, I'd guess that using these two ratings ( from whatever source) together with the afore-mentioned Daily Mail formcast ratings
would give far more profitable results than anything the vdw-ers can come up with!

Btw, a question to all and sundry:

has a bookmaker ever banned any punter because he/she used vdw methodology?

If not, why not?

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
it should be noted that, despite being 10lb worse off (inc wfa allowance), she beat Princess Ellis easier than she did last time they met
There's a reason for that, but it won't be found outside of SIAO!

Les

Though the weight prevents her from being a good thing, Princess Ellis (3.20 Catt) should run better today.

I'd broadly agree with this John but although coming from lower class the form book suggests Malapropism's turn won't be far away either.

So, basically I'm suggesting that

after using whatever criteria thought useful to select the most favourable race for betting purposes,

this KISS system
will out-perform vdw ( any denomination)
when measured by profitability:

*Clear Top on Daily Mail Rating
*Clear Top on Topspeed LTO
*Clear top on Best Ever Topspeed.

That's it. Five minutes with DM ( a hateful paper ) and RP, and job done.
I have no data to back up my guess, btw.

My next guess is that any animal with these three outstanding factors will probably be very short in price, so profits would be slow but steady, imo.

As I don't take any newspapers, I cannot say whether there are any qualifier for a bet today. The cards look poor to me, so I doubt it.

In the meantime, and just for a bit of interest, my twopenny ha'penny, "fun" bet today ( Wednesday, 23rd) would be
an EW double

615Leic, Wilbury Star
645Leic, Burning Flute.

AC

Believe me, I am familiar with that sentence.
What he told us was to study the form of all concerned, some assume it refers to other horses in previous races, but that is not what he said nor, except once on an unrelated subject, did he ever refer back to it as such.

Sean Rua

With the number of ways available to back a horse nowadays, even with a single bookmaker, only a fool would get himself a total ban.

john do you think vdw put a figure on that statement,one that could be added to another rating

2 more reasons why i wouldnt back Princess ellis is trainer is 1/46 and the horse ran unplaced in its only run at course,So you could say the trainer is pissing in the wind trying to get a win out of it,
Others with decent course form look to be a better betting option