Les

I haven't looked at that yet. Just trying to map the boundaries in terms of consistency and ability.

like i say a good job george thanks

Les, in the 1.30 Newmarket im with Perks win and place at 9.4 & 2.68 - In the Bunbury Cup ive gone with Diamond Tycoon at 16.5 & 4.5 win & place a couple oh fun bets pal.

235Nkt The Bunbury Cup

This is a very tough 99 contest. Most of the runners have at one time or another shown the ability to take this. However I've looked for runners whose turn has not yet come and who look to be holding back the ability for a smash and grab.

Racer Forever, 108, managed an 86 last year but has little hcp form and off 108 looks too high.

Lovelace, 107, ran a 100 lto winning off 102. Their can't be much more to come after this last run and carrying 9-10 on gs over a doubtful distance will probably count against him at the finish.

Damika, 106, managed a lowly 81 off 99 in his last hcp run coming 3rd. He does have a 95 off 97 in May but he looks held especially as 6f is probably best.

Smart Enough, 103, will probably run better today than of late, he has run a 101 off 96 when he last won, but he has been out of form and the 103 looks high for him.

Diamond Tycoon, 102, looks to be starting a hcp career, if that is the case connections will have to get his mark considerably down from its current 3 figs.

Ashdown Express, 99, at 9yo seems to have been run into no mans land. Off 99 he's far too high to go handicapping and although he could run to his mark it is his absolute ceiling.

Dhaular Dhar, 99, comes from two great performances of 90 and 95 off respectively 97 and 91. But that involves a price and he could well have peaked, I expect him to finish down the field today.

Zaahid, 98, ran a 99 lto when winning off 92, that 6lb rise will probably squeeze him out of it here.

Dabber's Ridge, 98, looks out of form.

Mine, 98, is one for the romantics as he goes into retirement today, but for the realists he's not quite good enough anymore, but I'm sure everybody wishes him well on his swansong.

Little White Lie, 98, wtlo off 94. That win rates 94 so he looks like having little room for improvement at a questionable distance.

Hinton Admiral, 97, is being turned around by a dangerous stable. 2lto he did an 88 off 94 and is definitely improving but I will take the risk that the stable haven't yet finished bringing down the hcp. They took him on at 105 and had got him to 94 before 2lto but I think that showed them that it was still too much.

Giganticus, 97, is to all appearences out of form. However the yard seem to be turning the corner this week and he has a 95 off 98 for his last win 11 months ago. I think he will run much better today but not to the point of yet being good enough to win this.

Regal Parade, 97, ran 92 winning off 92 lto, but Dandy gets them ready for a target and that last run was obviously the target, today is another matter completely.

Mastership, 95, is not good enough.

Capricorn Run, 103, has had a magnificent AW career. It looks as if connections have decided to switch to turf and the result looks impressive. If Capricorn Run was a top class hcpper on the sand it looks possible that he's G3 on the turf. Lto was his first turf run after the sand and he was sent straight in to the furnace in the form of the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. No one could have expected much as the 6f was too short and the opposition represented the best turf sprint hcppers, not surprisingly he went off at 40/1. Not only did he get within 3ls of the winner coming 6th of 27 but he had 19 100+ rated horses behind him! The OH has dropped him 2lbs for it, which must have delighted his people even more. If nothing else the current 54/1 on BF must represent great lay back potential for this confirmed front runner.

Artimino, 100, had his pipeopener lto. He ran a 90 off 97 and is sure to be even better today. As of yet the horse has no prize commensurate with his demonstrated hcp ability so connections will be looking to put that right as they have chosen the Bunbury today I am not going to argue with them.

Royal Power, 98, is another who has the ability but has not yet a prize to go with it. His 102 off 95 2lto suggests that this situation will change shortly and with Capricorn Run and Artmino, he completes my trio for the Bunbury.

Does anyone know if Paul Hanagan is injured / Suspended - for racing tomorrow? the reason im asking is that Richard Fahey has five in the John Smith`s Magnet Cup and he is not jocked up.Fight Club (R. Brotherton) is down as doubtful to run another Fahey horse is under Snoqualmie Boy in the entries im wondering do they have a reserve option for this race and that if Fahey`s other horse gets in will Hanagan be riding?.

Walter

PH has no booked rides after today, so he must be suspended.

In the Bunbury Cup, Zaahid looks to have been saved for this, and should win it.

Cheers JD id noticed he did`nt have any rides after today just wondered what was up.

Would you know if the race has the reserve option at this stage as the horse below Snoqualmie Boy is on my list and id need to be cracking on with the race if he gets in or if indeed the trainer takes up the engagement?.

WP

Can't see anything about reserves in the 5 day decs, so it looks extremely doubtful.
I presume you're talking of SI, whose only entry at the moment is in the Ebor?

quote:

Diamond Tycoon, 102, looks to be starting a hcp career, if that is the case connections will have to get his mark considerably down from its current 3 figs.

....................................................

John as usual a very interesting read, Meehan stated on the run up to the Hunt Cup that he had concerns about Diamond Tycoon`s consistency as he had run well at Haydock before becoming upset prior to his York debacle.In the Hunt Cup itself he seemed to travel ok for approx 6f then faded quite alarmingly in the last 2f, im wondering if the horse has had problems when push comes to shove as they are trying a tongue tie for the first time today.

Yes JD he was still in yesterday when i looked.

I`ll know where to check first next time JD you live and learn.

Walter,

In a race with so many high class contenders I wouldn't be surprised to get a few of them wrong.

However for good or bad when analysing these C2 hcps I only consider other hcp form as I regard top class handicapping as very much a sport within a sport and no different to the differences between hurdles and chases etc.

As in every category a horse needs to acquire experience and I have noticed that horses coming down from unsuccessful 2yo and 3yo non hcp listed or G3 races need a few runs in hcps before they find their feet.

Personally I prefer the C2 hcppers who have come through the ranks and reach a 90+ rating whilst the the number of their starts has been kept to a minimum. Though of course all have to be carefully viewed.

Cheers John, ive had a fun bet on Lovelace win and place in the race as well at 9.8 & 3.25.

Think you were proved right with Diamond Tycoon John needs more experience and dropped a few pounds ran ok till about a furlong out.

In this July Cup ive gone with US Ranger to place at 2.22 Rab gave him a good shout a wee while back.

jib

Thanks for the reply,it is dissapointing to have shattered dreams,and taking your word for it (no reason to doubt you)the myth of VDW is indeed just that.

I have not had recourse to the information you and others have had,but aftertiming or not,there was an awful lot of good logic in what he wrote,or what was written in his name.

The other day I referred to inflated prize money in some races,and again the last race at Newmarket showed tifernati in a false light,and would have been a spanner in the works of anyone using the ability rating at face value.

Garstonf,

Before we go any further I have to ask do you think in the case of this method (if you think VDW operated more than one method) why do you think he used the class and form differently in this one? There are many examples starting with PK going right through to Rivage Bleu were the selection was in a higher class race than it had ever won.

Is winning the only marker VDW shows to use when putting class to a horses? I remember reading a post of yours a few years ago where you asked a question about the To-Agori-Mou example and thinking if he (you) read that example again, he wouldn't be asking that question.

Be Lucky

Walter

Just read this on RP online:
"Snoqualmie Boy crept into the race as the first reserve after Fight Club was declared a doubtful runner before the cut-off point."
which suggests that there were reserves, but only up to the 24hr stage.
Pity really, as with 3 more non-runners since you would have been bound to get a run.

JD its the first time ive come across this problem since this reserve option was intoduced.I doubt that SI is currently in a position to win a race of this stature anyway needs to come down a little further but does`nt always help his case consistently runs 2-3 lenghths behind good horses id like to see him around the 90 mark 94 rated just now.Anyway we will wait and watch with him as far as his Ebor entry is concerned id be really surprised if he ended up there, the Cambridgeshire perhaps 1m 1f could be just the job (89) would have made it in last year though that`s a wee bit away yet. Walters Notebook horse Zomerlust has conditions to suit today in the York 2.40 - weve gone 40% at 9/2 with the books for the win and 60% at prices ranging from 6-4 downwards on the exchanges for the place.Im a bit wary of a couple of the 4 yr olds in the race but id be disappointed if he was`nt placed, he will have to run his race though or we could be in trouble.As per usual dont go daft betting money you cant afford to lose.

Nice One Walter!