GJ

The comparison I made between MR and PK was one of them both having class while their a/r's didn't show it.

RE

The possibility of heavy rain at Newmarket suggests caution.
However, if things stay as they are - going stick 7.3, which is good with a little give - Finsceal Beo could well turn the tables on Darjina.
With the same proviso about the ground, Good Gorsoon looks a decent bet in the 2.00.

JD
Good Gorsoon does look a decent bet thanks for the pointer, however I'm really interested in your comment re Finsceal Beo turning the tables on Darjina, and as long as the ground stays good I can see only one possible reason for a turnaround in form and if it happens Jim Bolger is a genius at placing his horses to prepare them to win!

RE

It's all to to do with The class they ran in etc, etc.
Although the July course isn't the Rowley mile, they are very similar, and FB has a much better record at Newmarket than Ascot. There is a reason for this, but that you'll have to figure yourself.

not a vdw selection but cant help thinking that stoute will have
filgree lacein at the right weight in the first at newmarket

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
RE

It's all to to do with The class they ran in etc, etc.
Although the July course isn't the Rowley mile, they are very similar, and FB has a much better record at Newmarket than Ascot. There is a reason for this, but that you'll have to figure yourself.

According to the handy course matrix that Mtoto provided...

Ascot: R/H, galloping, flat.

Newmarket: R/H, extra galloping, significant uphill stretch.

I've had a request for the course matrix (flat and NH):

They were given by Mtoto in his post of 20:18 found on this link.

Cheers.

Cheers BC,
Ive never been to Newmarket, but can tell from the TV its a stiff uphill finish, however that matrix describes Ascot as flat?? I know i was a little P****d the last time I was at Ascot but the finish is defo uphill and from memory looked just as steep as the hill at Cheltenham! (well almost)

Johnd

I can see that Good Gorsoon is rather like Prominent King in being well down the ability ranking for his race yet having direct form within his three consistency aggregates that shows he can perform at this class level. He is also the highest rated on the ratings I use of the four with the three lowest consistency aggregates from the first six and equals in the Post's forecast. He certainly has a decent chance of finishing in front of Victorian Bounty at today's weights, provided he takes to the course, and those two seem to have the best form in the race.

I've only been to a few courses - Newmarket (both), Newbury, Windsor and Towcester. So I can only go by the matrix. If they're wrong - then I'm bu**ered!!

I've just noiced that the NH matrix describes Ascot as:

R/H, galloping, flat, with significant uphill stretch, big fences.

Perhaps they left the uphill stretch out by mistake. In which case, I can't see there is any difference between Ascot and Newmarket - just going by the matrixes that is.

Anyway - Darjina for me - win or lose.

BC,

Have to say the course description for Ascot is one of the descriptions I disagree with on that site, and for that matter the one given in Raceform.

With the straight course I'm more than happy to use the Ascot form at Newmarket and visa versa. Some horse handle a bend, and a few are beter around a bend, so it always pays to check out the Ascot form as there is a round mile. In today's race I did have a slight query about Darjina as her very best form has been around a bend whereas Finsceal Beo's best is on a straight course. That is if you could make out a VDW case for FB as she failed on consistency, and her last race wasn't up to scratch. I did think it was quite interesting Nahoodh had run her best race on the straight mile, and had then failed twice around a bend, now back to the straight.

*************

As an example Roushayd's best winning class rating was 641 which was different to his ability rating.

Garsonf,

I can only agree, but the burning question has to be is the class rating based on races won, or is there another factor that stipulates which races are used when finding a horses class rating?

Be Lucky

I once thought id found a plausable reason as to why vdw had picked Rivage Bleu in the race he won at Cheltenham i.e. Long Reach?.But i read somewhere else that trainers follow the same route year after year? so i was faced with a bit of a dilemma.

RP Standard times, Im:

Newmarket (Rowley) 1m 36s
Newmaket (July) 1m 36.2s
Ascot (Straight) 1m 40.2
Ascot (Round) 1m 41.4s

Interchangeable form - My butt!

Mtoto

You mention Roushayds class rating of 641 from the previous season.

VDW didn't go back that far in his analysis in Systematic Betting,but he did mention it.How significant if at all do you think that performance was in relation to the ONC at Haydock ?

How significant if at all do you think that performance was in relation to the ONC at Haydock ?

Pipedreamer,

Personally I don't think it had any relevance at all. I think as VDW said the last race at Epsom was the deciding factor. However I'm far from convinced the last race is automatically the race the class rating is based on. I think the ONC race was selected because like a few other examples it fitted the bill, with little or no extra explanation needed.

*********

RP Standard times,

As I understand them they are based on some hypothetical horse CARRYING 9st (irrespective of class) over the distance. Personally I'm not into hypothetical or averages. As I tried to explain the last time you queried my logic about courses I base my findings purely on the layout of the course, looking at the last few furlongs and/or the position of the final bend.

Be Lucky

Now to me it is hugely significant,these are the sort of things that can cause various interpretations of the method.

I know what you are thinking there,but there is more than one way to get to the same destination.

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:
BC,

Have to say the course description for Ascot is one of the descriptions I disagree with on that site, and for that matter the one given in Raceform.

With the straight course I'm more than happy to use the Ascot form at Newmarket and visa versa. Some horse handle a bend, and a few are beter around a bend, so it always pays to check out the Ascot form as there is a round mile. In today's race I did have a slight query about Darjina as her very best form has been around a bend whereas Finsceal Beo's best is on a straight course. That is if you could make out a VDW case for FB as she failed on consistency, and her last race wasn't up to scratch. I did think it was quite interesting Nahoodh had run her best race on the straight mile, and had then failed twice around a bend, now back to the straight.

Be Lucky

Hi Mtoto,

Thanks for that - I have added an x in the Ascot uphill stretch box.

Are there any other obvious errors you've spotted in the matrix?

Cheers,

Just found racing in my system by t.peach
he interviews vdw about Roushayd
comments
newmarket sf 27 did not command attention
newbury wrong distance
epsomsf65 now ready
haydock drop in class best distance
enjoying vdw group
jim

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:

RP Standard times,

As I understand them they are based on some hypothetical horse CARRYING 9st (irrespective of class) over the distance. Personally I'm not into hypothetical or averages. As I tried to explain the last time you queried my logic about courses I base my findings purely on the layout of the course, looking at the last few furlongs and/or the position of the final bend.

Be Lucky

Well that's rather strange as you're such a fan of speed figures, which rely totally on standard times.

When you're in a hole, stop digging ffs!

Day 2 July Meeting Newmarket.

Looked at the 2 most valuable races, in the 2.35 I came to the conclusion Dream Desert is a possible but wont be putting any money down and I'm interested in how Lazy Days goes now stepped up in trip.

3.10 PAPAL BULL has to be the one, slight worries about the ground, however his sire Montjeu relished soft and his damsire Zafonic ran Kingmambo to a short head on soft ground, so I can't see a real problem with the going.

Pipedreamer

For me the 641 was absolute evidence that the horse was capable of winning a 170 (ONC) over the same distance.