it can be very difficult to go against a horse you can almost line up with the figures yes i can see this is not the time to collect a big prize like this maybe a lesser prize at ascot

john see where your going with buccellati take out the secound last race on soft and a wee bit unlucky lto,you have a consistent horse in top 4 ability,and impoving speed figures with 2nd last race ignored

There seem to be three consistent horses in the field, with Eradicate the highest ability-rated at 113, followed by King Charles at 80 and Mad Rush at 28.

There seems something of a conflict here between ability, where Eradicate comes top of the three, and form where Mad Rush seems best of the three, so I am not sure which VDW would view as the most likely. But as none of the three won their races last time out and are all going well up in class tomorrow, my assumption is that none of them is nearly strong enough to be a VDW selection.

or george you do a gaye chance and ignore buccelletti,s 2nd last time out in the soft

Buccellati`s biggest win came over Ascot`s 12f on Good/Soft?.

Les

Van der Wheil said that Gaye Chance was given the benefit of the doubt consistency-wise because it was "out of its depth" in its last race, and having checked to see the class of that race I can see why. Are there examples where he gave exemptions to horses for other reasons (apart from not finishing)? I can see the logic of doing so when there is a clear reason - such as a horse being run in a novice hurdle prior to the Grand National merely to give it some on course exercise.

But would it be right to assume that Buccellati is seriously unsuited by soft? He has a decent record on good/soft and has only run on soft once, in a very competitive race.

Errmmm! I didn't say that Buccellati would be 'seriously unsuited' by soft ground, merely that he wouldn't be a bet on it.

Johnd

Yes indeed, but Les was I think suggesting that, if the run on soft was ignored, Buccellati could be viewed as a consistent horse. Comparing with the Gaye Chance situation, to by-pass the Sandown race and view Buccellati's three runs for consistency purposes as 1/1/4, there would surely need to be a strong reason, such as soft being clearly unsuitable for the horse.

Or.... it was his first run of the season?
Roushayd was also consistent but, as VDW said "needs a race or two before coming to the boil"

Johnd

Are there examples where Van der Wheil ignored seasonal debuts for consistency total purposes, please?

GJ
I'd say Roushayd was certainly one.
When adding consistency figures, he did forgive seemingly bad runs on 2 occasions that I recall;
Uther Pendragon (L15) and Gaye Chance (SIAO).

ps Don't get too hung up on the figures; they are a guide. The real meat is in how he sorted out a winner from the probables.

Johnd

Thanks.

GJ

You should also note that Buccellati's first run this season was in a higher class race than he normally contests, and he was without his usual visor - which should tell you something?

Johnd

Buccellati's Ascot performance seems to me the best recent form on offer in today's race, and he is top and clear on the handicap ratings I use, so I certainly see him as having a good chance. My difficulty is solely that in trying to follow Van der Wheil's approach as I've understood it so far, he doesn't seem to emerge from the consistency perspective. But that may be because I'm applying it too rigidly.

Good luck if you back Buccellati.

went for the dutch after all the talk buccellati,young mick,king charles, but its been very interesting maybe go through a race next saturday if you dont mind boys

It's raining quite hard at Haydock at the moment and, if the ground does turn soft, then Mad Rush seems the likely beneficiary.

The last race Mad Rush ran in at Ascot,was the same race that Ile De Chypre ran in prior to his run in the ONC.

Today is the third time I am going to back Camps Bay, Old Newtonian Cup 335H.

Camps Bay has produced some magnificent ratings, last years 2nd to Regal Flush now on 109 can be rated at 108. And he has the class for a C2 hcp win.

I had a big bet on his seasonal debut when he went down by a hd to Ajaan in what reads like a free for all fight in the closing stages with the horses knocking into each other. Camps Bay hung badly when he hit the front and I think this influenced his 2nd run when 4ls behind Sugar Ray in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Ascot where he was produced too late.

Obviously the jockey, Jim Crowley, is no genius but if he doesn't get it right today he's going to get a lot of piss taken and I think Camps Bay is an excellent ew bet to finally win the prize his class says he deserves

240 San

This contest has attracted some tough characters who rated at 96 will take some beating.

Ace of Hearts looks outclassed.

Flipando is currently outclassed too.

Farley Star is improving but still has some way to go before convincing me she could win this.

Huzzah also looks like having too much on his plate here. Lto only rates 80 and he's up 6lbs in mark for it.

Bahar Shumal is apparently outclassed here but his trainer is a fearsome winner with exactly this type of animal, although I won't be backing, nothing on this earth would induce me to lay it!

Lovelace could only manage a rating of 83 lto off a mark of 104, he's down 2lbs but still looks overweighted.

Celtic Sultan even from his good draw could only manage an 83 lto. Off 102 he looks stuck out on a v slender branch.

Prince Of Light is coming nicely down the hcp but there is no sign of him bottoming out yet. He's probably now better than rated by the OH but today is not an easy race, it would be hard to imagine even the remarkable Mr Johnston being confident of him winning, even if the rot does come to an end today.

Unshakable ran an excellent 93 lto but at 9yo he has no more to give.

Dubai's Touch has not proven himself in hcps yet and a mark of 100 suggests it will have to come down as he gains experience before connections strike.

Jack Junior only managed to win his maiden off a mark of 107! For his win his mark was reduced (!) 7lbs by the handicapper. Says it all really!

Pinpoint ran an admirable 98 lto, up a lb for it, but off 106 it's hard to see him being decisive against such stiff opposition.

Lang Shining is difficult to assess. Lto can be forgotten as I think his draw meant that he was never put in the race. However that decision is quite eloquent about his ability because if connections were holding a group horse the bad draw would probably not have bothered them. If indeed he is just a C2 hcpper then his current mark of 101 looks like making winning only possible after clever placing by the stable. He ran a 95 lto but got 5lbs for it and he just looks up against it today.

Fifteen Love won from a good draw lto. That win rates a 95 but he got 7lbs for it. He is improving but I have him being reversed by the horse that finished second to him.

Masaalek had the opposite of Fifteen Love's good draw lto but got within a lb of him. The draw disadvantage would have been much bigger. Masaalek looks to have huge improvement in him and is a selection. It will be interesting to see what the A v B market has for this pair.

Gold Sovereign doesn't have enough to rate but is obviously v high class and is also selected.

Kavachi ran a 100 lto. Off a current mark of only 90 he looks like having an advantage in a tight contest and makes up the triplet of selections for this race.

Ive had my £2 on Alfie Flits at 40.0 to win & £3.04 to place at 6.54 for a bit of interest in the ONC could`nt make my mind up on the more fancied ones so thought why not go wiff Alfie.