of the 11 horses who are top 4 of class ran lto ,only bogside theartre ,king charles and mad rush appear in the top 5 consisteny horses though luberon just outside

Les

I see the race you've been looking at is the Old Newton Cup. Having read some of the archived posts and seen frequent reference to Roushayd, I've bought a copy of "Systematic Betting" and as you probably know he was Van der Wheil's selection in that race in 1988. It will be interesting to see if the same approach can find the winner this year.

yes george a bit early need to wait on the 48 hour decs

of the top 5 class horses young mick 280,dansili dancer 261,pevensey 208,buccaletti 204,strategic mount 200,only buccaletti could be said to be in form with a consistency rating of 13

of the 5 horses who ran there best top speed rating lto birkside,crete,royal jet,sahrati,tifernati only tifernati is mentioned before

of the horses who are consistent and ran only a few days ago they are birkside,bogside theatre,la vecchia scuola and tifornati with birkside,bogside theatre,and tifornati appearing before

after reading my weekender the horse to take out of the five most consistent,the three top ability is luberon lto it ran led quickened 4f out ridden and quickened againstayed on well final furlong,with winner since sugar ray back in 3rd

its all change after the 48 hour decs with most of the top weights and the top ability horses left in may even get a class dropper

after ranking the old newton horses for ability,consistency,lto race class,lto racing post rating,and improved top speed ratings lto only 2 are in 4 of the 5, young mick and king charles ,young mick misses out on consisteny and king charles on ability i,ll wait and see what the betting does

I am tempted by the unluckyest trainer on the planet with - Mad Rush.

So - So close on recent runs, and Top Jock on board !

won 2004 and 2005 !

tc

Buccellati looks to have been aimed at the race, and looks much the likeliest winner at this stage.

looking at young mick in the old newton it has a lot going for it [but not consistency] top on ability,coming out of one of the top 4 ability races lto, shows a progresive ts rating 28-76-85,progresive rpr 91-98-107,and bhb rating going down,108-105-100,think it will be in top 4 of racing posts ratings ,looks to be coming to the boil will the newton be a race to early form cycle wise any thoughts

Les

quote:

[but not consistency]

I've much more reading to do, but thus far I'd say consistency was not just a necessary condition for a VDW selection, but the bedrock of the approach.

I agree consistency is the bedrock of any method where betting on horses is concerned granted the correct class / conditions / form cycles - horses can run to trainer expectations quite consistently.
Tomorrows race is over Haydock Park`s - 12f - likely to be run on Good / Good To Soft ground if the forecast is anything to go by.

Consistency is fundamental to the whole method, but that does not mean a horse has to be in the 3 most consistent.
Roushayd himself went into this race with the form figures 346.

Johnd

It would seem from item 42 in "The Golden Years of Van der Wheil" that to be one of the consistent horses a horse probably has to have one of the five lowest consistency aggregates in the field, if it doesn't have one of the three lowest in the first 5/6 of the forecast. I haven't yet the resources to check but would assume Roushayd qualified under that former consideration. As far as I can see, Young Mick will fail both.

the question has to be asked is young mick coming into a form cycle,been trying to find a horse to fit a roushayd ,top in ability ,top in ratings,coming out of a biggish ability race,there are no ability droppers,it maybe being prepared for next time out i dont know but speed figures and rpr ratings say a win maybe due

Les there is no doubt in my mind that Young Mick is running into top form and has conditions to suit tomorrow its there in the book we know what he can do at peak at 6yrs of age so a bold bid can be anticipated.What we are not so sure about is whether there may be a few 4 yr olds who have yet to reveal their true ability at the racetrack.There is also the possibility that certain horses have disappointed thus far this season (Alfi Flits for instance) whilst not encountering their optimum conditions and may get them tomorrow.
These types look out of form but it is -

just an illusion.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9nXEXWlQ5Q

yes wattie prep race for next time

Les

I wouldn't have Young Mick on my mind at all.
It is 2 years since he showed the ability that makes him top a/r in this, and he has done little since.
He had every chance lto in his ideal circumstances and plainly wasn't good enough, and I'd be surprised if either of the 2 in front of him don't beat him again tomorrow.
I still say Buccellati, though the going can soften up quickly at Haydock, in which case he wouldn't be a bet