Looking at the 5.30 in the same way as the Little Owl etc tables, Zaahid seems a possibility as he has much the highest ability figure of the three with the lowest consistency ratings within the first six of the forecast.
However, another horse within the first six in the forecast has a higher ability rating (Giganticus) as do two others lower down the forecast - Dabbers Ridge and Racer Forever.
This clearly means Zaahid is not a Little Owl type, and I'm struggling to know whether he might be a Sunset Cristo and therefore backable, or a Kenlis and therefore not.
Two of the three horses with higher ability are drawn very high (Racer Forever, 29, and Giganticus, 26), which looks a probable disadvantage, while Zaahid from stall 4 should be fine. But the best horse on Van der Wheil's rating, Dabber's Ridge, is drawn in the middle and maybe not so disadvantaged as Racer Forever and Giganticus. He was however beaten a very long way by Zaahid last time the two met and it would be rather surprising if the weight turnaround was sufficient for him to reverse placings.
I think therefore that Zaahid may fall into the Sunset Cristo rather than Kenlis category, and be worth a small bet.
have dug out what looks like a good vdw selection on saturday but a quote from the golden years niggles at me ,CLASS HORSE, SELDOM FAILS TO CAPTURE THE PRIZE WHEN THE PRIZE IS BIG ENOUGH i feel that the prize drop maybe to big for beaver patrol i feel that beaver patrol is the class/form horse in this race but is dropping from class 623 to 311 is this race being used to keep the horse ticking over with the use of weight ,for the stewards cup perhaps? any thoughts fellow vdwers
Beaver Patrol ran a great race the other day but from reading the letters in "The Golden Years" I doubt he could be a VDW pick for the race on Saturday, As 11 other horses have lower consistency figures it seems unlikely he will qualify as a consistent horse on the basis shown in item 39 of "TGY", and he certainly doesn't qualify on the criterion set out in item 42.
yes george not consistent at all only bit of good form is lto its the class part and the CLASS HORSE SELDOM FAILS TO CAPTURE THE PRIZE WHEN THE PRIZE IS BIG ENOUGH,its the dipping of race class from lto and upping of horse weight,what are we to make of vdws remark is the trainer after a bigger prize later,as i think beaver patrol lto form is more than good enough to win this apart from weight carried ,and theres knot on wood ?
the question is george when do we know when the PRIZE IS BIG ENOUGH? what is the sign i think that the weight carried by beaver patrol MAY be a sign a good place on saturday then on to the stewards cup perhaps?
Van der Wheil defines "class horse" in item 36 of "The Golden Years", and Beaver Patrol may well be that horse in the race on Saturday (I haven't yet worked out the ability ratings). But in that same piece Van der Wheil says it is the balance between class, form and other factors which shows the good things, and from the formula with which he starts that piece I think consistent form must be part of that. So although Beaver Patrol may well carry forward his impressive form from last time and win on Saturday, I still can't see him as a Van der Wheil selection.
I'd be fairly sure that 31k would be a big enough prize, and the horse had been consistent until returning from the desert. He's obviously now back to his best, but I doubt Windsor would be his ideal course? A lot can happen to the ground at Windsor in the next 36 hours, but at the moment I'd favour Mac Gille Eoin.
Or are they going for the smaller prize now as consolation after preparing the horse for the bigger race and failing Are they now striking while the preberbial iron is hot? why waste the effort already put into the horse
I cant see the reasoning why VDW seems to suggest that only one Horse is ever aimed at these big races there may be any number of horses that have been prepared and are trying for the prize expecially "when the prize is big enough"
Seems more logical to look for "Card markers" from these races than trying to find the winner of them in what are mostly highly competitive events
it has won 31k previously but at 8st.10lbs my three against the field are mac gille eion,knot on wood ,and beaver patrol what i,m trying to get at is trainers hideing horses away through excessive weight any thoughts john
I don't think he's 'hiding' anything with Beaver Patrol, Les. It's quite simple really, weight slows horses down, and twice in the past he hasn't been quick enough to carry a similar weight round this course fast enough to win, including this race on slower ground last year. Can't see him being quick enough tomorrow either.
To try and answer Boozer's point, I don't doubt that Beaver Patrol will be trying tomorrow, and even the place money is not to be sniffed at, but I strongly doubt that the horse has been trained and aimed at this specific race. Horses like BP often run in races where everything isn't perfect because there aren't all that many valuable 6f sprints; particularly in the right circumstances, and there's nothing to lose by keeping them ticking over. Sorting out which is which is to my mind a basic part of the VDW process.
Wouldnt be surprised if he won But not strong enough for me racing now off 104 last win on 95!! Cant find anything else to get excited about to go with the drop in class
This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,
Of the three with the lowest consistency aggregates from within the first six and equals of the Post's forecast, Ceremonial Jade has the highest ability rating and has not been out of the frame in all four runs over the distance. However the second highest rated, Orpsie Boy, looks more or less as good and seems usually to run well after a break, and according to the Post's guide has a good draw. I marginally prefer Orpsie Boy but neither seem to have anything like the characteristics of the two horses VDW said were bets from the four discussed in detail in his March 1981 article, so I'll be leaving them alone.
Again the winner came from the three with the lowest consistency total in the first six and equals in the forecast. With a much lower ability rating than Ceremonial Jade and Orpsie Boy, though, and no race for eight months not easy to see how it could have been selected.
george have decided to stick to the letter with a race on saturday so being of today and watching the tennis have went through the 3.35 haydock at this stage of the 14 lowest 5 lowest consistent horses the 3 with highest ability are ALFIE FLITTS 138,LUBERON 129,TIFERNATI 127, now we wait to see who stands there ground and if any end up 3 most consistant within the betting?,or its all change and there are non runners
