345: I can't oppose Henrythenavigator, even at the short price.

Poor start to the week, but for day 2 at Royal Ascot

2.30 PACO BOY, put in a race he could not win lto but G3 winner previous race on soft, however has winning form on fast ground.

3.45 DUKE OF MARMALADE, VDW "sore thumb"

I have these four marked down today:

230A Stimulation - EW
305A Heaven Sent - win
340A Duke of Marmalade - win
530A Cruel Sea - EW

420A dutch: Bankable looks hard to oppose, but one who may be up for it is We'll Come - EW.

Day 3 Royal Ascot

GOLD CUP 3.45- Yeats seriously classy horse but i'm not impressed with his last 2 runs, is he as good as ever? im not so sure. Coastal Path could be a superstar stayer but at the price on fast ground over an unknown trip, not for me. GEORDIELAND has the form but as he the class? on the basis of last years result with the belief Yeats may not be the horse he was and Geordieland better than ever, at the price GEORDIELAND for me.

BRITTANIA HANDICAP 4.20 - Very difficult race, for me COMMANDER CAVE has 2 pieces of form that entitle him to go very close and a value price to boot!

Regal Exile

I'm new to Van der Wheil and am trying a few races using the table approach shown in an article from March 1978. Applying it to the Gold Cup seems to result in Yeats, highest on ability, and one of the three most consistent in the Post's forecast. Using the Post's ratings as a check, Yeats is top and therefore that supports the ability rating.

Yeats has won the same race in the last two years and unless it rains heavily will be facing the same conditions again, so no problems there.

You suggest that he may be in decline. I'm not sure about that. Over the last couple of seasons he seems to have started well and perhaps faded towards the end of the season. And I see that his first race this year, a pretty modest one compared to tomorrow's, is the same race he ran in last year, presumably to get him course fit.

At the 11/8 forecast in the Post he is hardly an exciting selection for a small stakes backer like me, but he seems to be the selection using the Van der Wheil table.

In the article Van der Wheil found four horses by the table approach, but wrote that he backed two and left two, referring to temperament and odds. Is it the odds that put you off Yeats, and if so could you or other members offer any guidance about the odds at which he would be a Van der Wheil bet, please?

The only problem with Yeats is that no horse I believe aged over six has won this race before so for me that would be a worry so with that in mind i'd have to go with COSTAL PATH



have fun

A big hello to all!

I have finally got an internet connection so should be able to join in again from now on!

I agree with Michael on the 345A - Coastal Path - if he stays the trip!

Hi JIB - hope all is well.

Good to see you back john.

Oops. Got that one wrong.

Well done to Yeats - superb performance and a little bit of history.

What a wonderful week of racing for VDW advocates,with all the good things going in.

Can anyone confirm if Colony was a VDW bet today,I thought it might be,but the handicaps are trappier than Group races.

Hi George,
Yes your right lots of positives going for Yeats, however I don't back the numbers blindly I like to form my own opinions based on VDW's writings, and yes it was the prices that influenced me to a certain extent, not so much Yeats being a short price (considering his recent runs) but Geordieland being overpriced (considering his lto win). I took 10's with Hills and even tho' Geordieland used to be a bit of a "dog" he was carried out on is sheild, at those kind of prices one winner can pay for quite a few losers!

Regal Exile

Would it be fair to say that in your view Yeat's price wouldn't have put Van der Wheil off, but you thought Geordieland better value?

I'm having difficulty getting to grips with that comment in the March 1981 article about "all tied up with temperament and odds". Earlier in the week I thought both Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade came out as selections on the table approach, but how to judge at what price they should be backed? Van der Wheil was very specific about Little Owl in his first example in the article - better than three to one on - so presumably he had some kind of formula for getting to a minimum acceptable price. Having seen those two go in without backing them, I thought 2.5 on Betfair wasn't bad on Yeats today, given the huge margin he had on the ability measure, but I've no idea how Van der Wheil would have calculated a minimum acceptable price - maybe it bears some relation to the margin of superiority on ability? Any guidance on this would be much appreciated.

George, I'm convinced VDW would not have put his money down on GEORDIELAND, I was being speculative judged on my view of value and I'm not sure if he would have backed YEATS judged on his last 2 runs, or would he have looked at the ability rating and decided YEATS would totally outclass the opposition, who knows?
This week I have judged HENRYTHENAVIGATOR and YEATS to be poor value IMO and tried to take them on with value alternatives RAVENS PASS and GEORDIELAND, I flopped both times! however i got a buzz out of picking the best of the rest in each race.
DUKE OF MARMALADE I viewed as a stone cold certainty and value at the sp of evens.

Day 4 Royal Ascot.

3.05 I think its between Conduit and HEBRIDEAN, Conduit was very impressive lto in a class 2 and i expect him to improve again for the step up in trip, but I value Hebridean's lto win as superior and make him the selection.

3.45 Confident SPACIOUS will find her way to the winning enclosure! improving and dropping in class. I think Psalm is a dark one and will follow her home.

quote:

Originally posted by michael:
The only problem with Yeats is that no horse I believe aged over six has won this race before so for me that would be a worry so with that in mind i'd have to go with COSTAL PATH have fun

being the nit picker that I am I could only find 1 since 1950!

Imp
I stand corrected

I'm glad he won anyway just dosn't know how to run a bad race
we could do with a few more like him,could he do it at 8?

have fun

Lush Lashes has much the highest ability figure in the Coronation Stakes and is among the first five of the Post's betting forecast, but is not one of the three with the lowest consistency figures (Spacious, Infallible and Modern Look). So presumably no Van der Wheil selection in the race.

Buckingham Palace Stakes 530 Asc.

Taking the RHC as a guide the draw looks to be quite significant at this meeting. Having said that Bankable although qualifying as an OH horse, had characteristics that suggested he was the lay of the season. His OR progression was profoundly indicative of having suffered severe inflation and had no value in relation to his class. As such being well beaten from a high draw may not be so damning of the draw advantage.

I have decided to restrict my analysis to the lowest drawn 15 today as I feel that even if a bigger drawn horse has been laid out for this his connections will prefer to wait for something where the fear of the draw is less.

As such I rate the class of the opposition today at a very reasonable 91.

Celtic Sultan rates 92 for his last run which is okay but I can find nothing better for him.

Zaahid looks held as he's up 6lbs for a 94 rated run.

Prior Warning doesnt look good enough.

Regal Parade ran a 90 over 7f 13 months ago but is up 6lbs from that, Dandy has probably got him near what he regards as a winning mark but I don`t think he will be good enough today.

Our Faye is improving but has no form to say she could be good enough to put this lot to the sword.

Captain Jacksparra is much the same as Our Faye.

King's Bastion has never shown enough class to win this.

Jedburgh is on a terrific mark, and whilst there is plenty of form good enough for a win somewhere, there is no recent form to suggest it will be today.

Trafalgar Square looks out of his depth.

Carnivore has never tried to compete at this level before, and for reason!

Count Ceprano has a respectable CD rating of 84 for this class and may well do well today but I can't see him winning it.

Bomber Command looks out of his depth here.

Binanti is up 4lbs from winning this last year where he ran a 99. Lto was obviously an encouraging pipeopener and the almost identical preparation suggests it would be unwise to leave him out.

Docofthebay put in a great 101 two days ago in the RHC. Anything approaching that will be do the trick.

Prince Of Light looks a terrific Bingham. Now 16lbs down from his lwm he made the pace for a v fast race lto. As that race was 1.5 furlongs longer than todays I see significance in the race report and comments;

`A competitive handicap. Annemasse and Prince Of Light set a decent pace before dropping out to occupy two of the last three places, and the time was fractionally faster than that recorded by Blythe Knight in the Group 3 a race earlier.'

`chased leader, ridden and every chance 3f out, weakened quickly 2f out'

I shall be making a book of; Binanti, Docofthebay, and Prince Of Light.