iris de balme should have been more handy over a shorter trip o well

Did you have a wee saver on Monker Walt?

No me Rab no bettin ataw the day, this fav at Ripon comes oot on ma version oh John`s method but no the ither two, nae bets.

Another winner John

Well done

Nicely done again John.

well done jib

Well done JIB.

Better than my three donkies!!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

quote:

Originally posted by les henderson:
iris de balme should have been more handy over a shorter trip o well

Yep Les, put that down as one that got away, RP thinks so too.
Incidentally I made an error in my earlier post, although his current rating is 144 he actually ran off 140 today - 23lb out of the handicap, though the RP still showed it as 117.

2,000 Guineas

Assessed in a similar manner to VDW's evaluation of the 1982 race (SCHB 4780). That is by consistency of the first 5 in the betting forecast, £class, Topspeed, Topspeed best ever, RPR:
Stars
6 New Approach, sets the standard, D? 2nd 11/8
6 Ibn Khaldoun, improver and major contender
5 Raven's Pass, may be better on faster
2 Henrythenavigator, D? WON 11/1
2 Perfect Stride, D?
1 Scintillo

Edited at 12.30 Sat:

I thought it looked a bit stark without prices so I processed the field by adjusting the 4 basic Patterform columns plus course, distance, probable market and trainer:

Newmarket is straight for 10f with slight undulations and is a fair test that suits big long-striders. A class 1 over 8f on going given as Good. RP indicate it is arestricted race winner to come from Nos 8, 11, 6, 5, 9, 3. My ratings priced up to a theoretical overround of 137%:

1 Alfathaa 18/1, D?
2 Bahamian Kid ? G?
3 Dream Eater 15/2
4 Fireside 35/1
5 Henrthenavigator 18/1, D?
6 Ibn Khaldun 3/1, improver and a major contender
7 Moynahan ? D?
8 New Approach 2/1, sets the standard, a battler just has to prove at the D?
9 Perfect Stride 15/2, D? Stoute/Moore combo going weel
10 Plan ? D?
11 Raven's Pass 11/8, top class contender with ground drying but can he battle? Gosden/Fortune combo going well.
12 Scintillo 4/1, D? Hannon/Hughes combo going well.
13 Stimulation 4/1, D?
14 Strike The Deal 15/2
15 Stubbs Art 11/1

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

New Approach winner in a race,no reason it will be beaten tomorrow.I am editing as i lost my last post which was quite detailed,hate computers.

Bolger said in 1992 after Epsom when St Jovite was runner up,that the Irish Derby was the real derby,or real test of a racehorse,ie it usually has the winner from the derby's at Epsom and France,(I don't agree, Epsom is tops in my book,),significantly he is again reiterating this with his comments on New Approach,he is even boycotting Epsom this time.This makes me think The Curragh is the prime target for New Approach,but he will still win the Guineas tomorrow on route.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pipedreamer,

Totally agree that New Approach looks the classic good thing!

looking for smaller fish today i think against the grain has a very good chance at a good price at thirsk after a lto win after a very long lay off,and see its out of pivotal improvement can be expected and not taking on a lot more clalssy animals this time any thoughts fellow vdw,ers

NEWMARKET 3.25
I think ravens pass will come on for his run and ibn khaldun is the proven distance winner so i will be getting around 6/4 the pair

1,000 Guineas

A G Hall 'key' type race IMO.
Starred for betting f/c, consistency, ability, Topspeed, best ever Topspeed, RPR.
Stars
6 Natagoora, sets the standard just has to get the D. WON 11/4
4 Savethisdanceforme, may not be quite good enough.
3 Infallible
3 Saoirsie Abu. 3rd 20/1
3 Laureldean Gale
2 Muthabara
2 Spacious. 2nd 11/2
1 Kitty Mitcham
1 Lush Lashes
1 Nahoodh

Alternatively, processing the field through Patternform adjusting the basic columns plus course, distance, trainer and probable betting itcomes out as follows. My ratings priced up to a theoretical overround of 137%:

1 Francesca D'Giorgio ? D?
2 Infallible 5/2, ran well here 18 days ago over 7f, Gosden/Fortune combo going well, D?
3 Kitty Matcham 25/1, D?
4 Lady Deauville ? D?
5 Laureldean Gale 16/1, D?
6 Lush Lashes 12/1,D?
7 Max One Two Three ? D?
8 Muthabara 15/2, D?
9 Nahoodh 50/1, D?
10 Natagora 9/4, sets the standard just has to prove at the D.
11 Royal Confidence 9/1, D? (Hills/M Hills combo going well)
12 Saoirsie Abu 12/1
13 Savethisdanceforme 15/2
14 Spacious 11/2, could make a smart 3yo, 234 days off track? Fanshawe/Spencer combo going well

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Paul

only noticed your post on yesterdays 2000 guineas,so sorry to aftertime.

Both of the horses you mentioned were quickly dismissed by myself,to be constructive,and in no way negative,I hope it will help if you look at the form of both.I will touch on two aspects,and you can search for the rest yourself.

Ravens Pass beaten by a horse who sidestepped the guineas,and note the comments of Henry Cecil,but also look in the formbook.

Ibn Kaldoun look where he started off his career,and running in nurserys as well,and also look in the formbook,his form was very sketchy.

I didn't back the winner,but the hype surrounding Ibn Kaldoun was incredulous.

I hope this helps in some small way.

PIPEDREAMER
With ravens pass i felt he would come on for his first run and have fitness on his side . With ibn kaldoun i had noted that he started at lower class tracks however i felt he was an improver on what he had achieved in his last 3 runs and was a distance winner as well. After the race i think ik was completly out classed on the day.As for rp he was to far of the pace to himself justice but did come through the pack eyecatchingly, not saying rp would have won of course but i think he could have been closer, but the that is only my opinion

Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes

I have attempted to assess this with the 'methodology' employed by VDW in assessing the 1982 2000 Gns, which is different than the basic methodology as may be seen from the headings. For comparison I have rated them and priced them to 100% and priced the Massey ratings too:

VDW factors for evaluation were - first 5 in RP betting f/c, consistency, best ever SF, best ever SF weight-adjusted, Topspeed.

Headings beneath are: cloth no, VDW stars, my odds, Massey odds

1 = 0, 35/1, 5/1. Al Qasi, D?
2 = 0, 66/1, 17/2. Arabian Gleam, D?
3 = 1, 35/1, 40/1. Astronomer Royal, CD, O'Brien 2nd string?
4 = 4* 3/1, 28/1. Cesare, improver. 4th 7/2
5 = 5* 11/2, 4/1. Creachadoir. Contender needs fast ground. Suroor/Dettori combo going well. WON 3/1
6 = 2 9/1, ? Haradasun. O'Brien/Murtagh combo going well.
7 Medecine Path (non-runner)
8 = 2 7/1, 7/1 Pheonix Tower. CD Unbeaten, promising, needs to progress. Cecil/Durcan combo going well. 2nd 9/2
9 = 2 7/1, 5/1 Rob Roy
10 = 3* 16/1, 10/1 Tariq. Has to get the D? 3rd 9/1
11 = 2 22/1, 400/1 Barshiba
12 = 1 11/1, 12/1 Majestic Roi, CD

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

quote:

Creachadoir

Trainer stats say it all

Well done Rab.

Oops! and you Jack.