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VOEGELE, LAWRENCE Lawrence Voegele's Professional Method of Winner Selection
Financial Publishers, Los Angeles, CA, 1972, 1st Ed. Paperback Binding. The ''can't loose'' method of betting the horses that will work for professionals, won't work for gamblers! This book contains every fact that the author teaches in his $00 course. It's scientific. No hunches, tips, so-called systems or inside information. Just simple, hard facts. Facts that anyone could see, if they knew what to look for. 123 Pgs. Description text copyright 2007. Nr Fine. Some edge wear, overall content excellent. No DJ. 8vo..

Offered for EUR 15.95 = appr. US$ 25.19 by: Booksforcomfort.com - Book number: 14932
See more books from our catalog: Sports & Games;Gambling General





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Walter,

Yes.

Take the big hcp tomorrow (255N) as an example.

16 runners but only 17 lbs between them all. Topweight 9-10 with bopttomweigyht on 8-07. Its obvious that nothing in such a tight band has a a saddleweight advantage.

However they all have an official measure of class and from their performances it plain to see that a lot of these official marks could well be inflated or more interesting seriously devalued.

I think I have one for us in this race and if it bears out I will post it up.

Thanks, back in 20 mins or so school run again.

quote:

Originally posted by sean rua:
Late in replying, I was at the hospital yesterday. No it wasn't the mental hospital, and i didn't see poor old Investor!

Black Cat,
Well done with 50% strike rate. That's the minimum needed at those prices, I'd say.
I hope you've identified the decisive factor; it seems deciding correctly whether to go in or no is what's helping your method.

Hi Sean

I don't think there is just one factor. Just a combination of factors, and the feeling that "yes, this really should win - if it doesn't, I won't be able to find an excuse for it".

You are right about the minimum SR needed at the prices, although the 2/1's and 3/1's are more common than they used to be. I actually got 11/2 on the 7/2 SP I mentioned the other day. Almost a record for me!! But I'm also prepared to take 4/5 if necessary - even less when I backed Kauto Star!!

Hope you hospital appointment went OK.

BC

quote:

Originally posted by john in brasil:

I have these books and have found them extremely useful.

However modern handicaps have a much more compressed weight range so the opportunities to explore large saddleweight variations seldom now exist.

On the otherhand the universality of the OR has made the evaluation of class far simpler and more accurate. So whilst one change has closed some doors the other has thrown open others.

If you understand that these raters of a generation ago were successfully exploiting differences in class then one only has to adapt to modern conditions to do the same.

Hi John

Thanks for that - I have managed to find and order all 3 now - I'll keep that in mind when I get them.

I'm also waiting to find Mtoto's recommendation "Betting for a living" at a reasonable price, although whilst searching for it, I ordered "Mordin on Time".

That should keep me going for a few weeks!!

Marvex next!! Did you find book four?

BC

BC,

No, the 4th booklet remains tantalizingly elusive.

.

quote:

However they all have an official measure of class and from their performances it plain to see that a lot of these official marks could well be inflated or more interesting seriously devalued.

...................................................
That`s an interesting statement John, during the running years we did on occassion rip the total pish out of the handicapper especially when he thought he had us shackled.Obviously when he caught up with us and took our real measure as they always do, the game was abogey

just be wary if you are buying this book,as there is a huge variation in price depending where you look,some american sites really rip you off,a good book all the same,i lent my copy a couple of years ago but didn't get it back.

I felt a sense of deja vu when reading it,a lot of VDW type stuff,which is good really when you think about it,no reference to mirrors though.

Is there a difference between a mirror and a signpost?

A bus driver uses both doesn't he

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pipedreamer,

How can we be sure which book Vincent is talking about

PD which book did you have

sorry boozer, i had voegeles book.

BlackCat

I have a copy of "Betting For A Living" somewhere, which I will forward if you furnish contact details.
Do be careful though, of information overload. While it is good to have an extensive background knowledge of various approaches, it is as well to remember that the author, Nick Mordin, is still working for a living, and is perenially bottom of the racing tipster leagues.
Simple is Beautiful is a sentiment I'm sure VDW would have subscribed to: much like the 4 factors (Not 1, Seanrua), he gave us to identify worthwhile bets.

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
The Method

1.Class-5000 race sample
4685 ran in same class or lower 93.7%
315 ran in higher class than last race 6.3%


2.Weight-5000 races
3415 carried same or less weight as in last race 68.3%
1585 carried more weight than in last race but of the 1585 31.7%
845 carried more weight but were dropped in class
740 carried more weight in same or higher class


3.Distance-5000 races
2965 ran same distance as last race 59.3%
1235 ran longer distance 24.7%
800 ran shorter distance 16.0%


4. Finish in last race-5000 races
3080 finished in first three or made up ground 61.6%
in the final stages of the race


5.Odds-5000 races
3610 were amongst the first three favourites 72.2%
in the betting

He then goes on to explain class of racetracks etc which are a wee bit outdated as Teeside and Lanark are mentioned.

Walter

Thanks for that, it really just confirms some similarities with VDW, but at the end of the day it is just stats, and nothing like the depth of the previous VDW examples I indicated.
Re BlackCats query about the incidence of horses going up in distance; it is common amongst both flat and NH trainers to start horses of at distances short of their best and pick up what races they can while still fooling the handicapper, a quick check of many horses form will confirm that.
Horses also tend to lose some of their speed as they get older (Don't we all? ), and will be stepped up in distance and down in class to compensate; much as Millville is today.

Punchestown 4.15

Posted as my inadequate tribute to Beef Or Salmon
A G Hall 'key' type race in my opinion but a race where VDW might have advised 'alarm bells should be ringing' as the overall £class is not confirmed by the ratings compilers. I have scored the columns, rated, valued and priced up to a theoretical overround of 120%:

Headings for columns are - cloth No, £class, ability, RPR, Formcast

1__X__0__X__X Beef Or Salmon 6/1, C&D could place
2__X__0__0__0 Hi Cloy 28/1
3__X__X__0__0 Kicking King 7/2
4__0__X__0__0 Mister Top Notch 13/1
5__0__X__X__X Mossbank 13/8, improver, progressive. 3rd 7/2
6__0__X__X__X Neptune Collonges 15/8, C&D could easily be the one again. WON 9/10F
7__0__0__0__0 New Alco ?
8__0__0__0__0 Sher Beau ?
9__0__0__0__0 Snowy Morning ? 2nd 12/1

You may perceive that I am a VDW cult disciple but it's not the case I moved on years ago and only post stuff like the above because there is still so much interest in it In fact I make my own assessments based on many years of bitter experience. This is how I see the race employing my short-cut method of adjusting the basic Patternform site columns plus course, distance and the probable market. I am only ever guided by my own calculated odds:

1 10/1
2 22/1
3 11/2 - Kicking King
4 14/1
5 7/2 - Mossbank
6 Evens - Neptune Collonges
7 40/1
8 ?
9 10/1

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Thanks for this, Jack.

I like Neptune, but I don't trust the jockey 100% on short-priced ones.


---

Yes Johnd, 1,2,3,4.

BUT, we can't leave 1 out, just bc we feel like it, can we?

A bit more from horse sense



Since the quality of the form is now recognised as better class all round, we can award class consistency points for all of the last three races as follows: 50 points for a 3rd, 100 for a 2nd, 300 for a win. The contenders now get 50 points for every pound less being carried compared with the weight in its previous race, and minus 50 for every pound more, up to 5lb. more or less, whichever is the case.
Horses are then noted as plus or minus depending on whether they have recent form or not. Horses dropped in class get a plus or minus depending on whether a change of distance is involved. Same-class animals may be eliminated altogether if required to run over a furlong more or less than the distance of its last winning race.Add up all your handicapping values and divide by ten. You'll get a simple rating to work from, and the plus and minus factors will help you decide the "strength".

PLUS FACTORS
Apart from those plus factors outlined above, you can do a considerable amount of research yourself to enable you to "get
"¢an edge". For instance, some trainers will deliberately run their charges in a higher class, or over a longer distance or after a long lay off, or all three simultaneously, to try to fool you and the public handicapper into false assumptions about his horse. Then, after a dismal performance under the wrong conditions, the now-fitter horse will be returned to the type of race it loves at the right weight mark "” and win at a good price. Find out which trainers use this method and keep the list by you.
Knowing your trainers is as important as knowing your horses.
Though I have said that you should concentrate on the major stables, you could take this a stage further, go a bit deeper, and look for the when and where of each trainer's profitability.
For instance, Peter Walwyn will give you a good run with his two-year-olds and his 3YO handicappers, while Noel Murless and Bernard vancutsem are the trainers to watch in three-year-old conditions races.
Look at their methods and their reputations. Bruce Hobbs' two-year-olds often run first time out at Newmarket with big reputations, and big money behind them. Scobie Breasley will wait to pounce on a good handicap at his local track, Epsom. Doug_Smith has a knack for placing his horses in handicaps to get just below the 8st. mark, which, by no means incidentally, is the area of many a good jockey's riding weight.
But most important of all, know the trainers who can, like tennis stars, raise their game, when the race for the really big money is on.

quote:

But most important of all, know the trainers who can, like tennis stars, raise their game, when the race for the really big money is on.

I do like that bit

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
BlackCat

I have a copy of "Betting For A Living" somewhere, which I will forward if you furnish contact details.

Hi John

That would be great. Naturally, it will be returned, and I'm more than happy to pay postage too.

My email is blackcat9 at btinternet d0t com

Cheers, BC


________________

Clever Betting by Statist has arrived already!! Before I can read it, I will have to get rid of the authentic 'damp-old-book' smell.

What did I expect from a book published in 1947?

Flicking through, I've noticed the heading "Knockers". I didn't think it was going to be that sort of book!!

MATHEW 7:7

Matt 7:7
"Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will find; knock and the door will be opened for you".

But Les, isn't that "Santa Claus for grown-ups?"

______________

Devonian Turf Topics arrived today. I thought the Statist book smelled of 'damp-old-book'. But this one really hums!!

1.50 sandown

Ah!