Michael

Multidimensional already has a gp2 win on his cv, and no doubt hopes to improve on that this season.
On the other hand Pipedreamer hasn't yet won a pattern race, but returns to the scene of his finest hour in an attempt to do so.
This is what J Gosden said after that win:
1t's a long way from the Cambridgeshire to the Eclipse as Halling did, but this horse has the form to go for a race like the Earl Of Sefton next spring,
Which do you think would be most ready for today?

Johnd
I see where you are coming from I had a look at what spotlight was saying about the two and about Pipedreamer he said
Made vast improvement in first season last year and evoked memories of Halling, trainer´s previous Cambridgeshire winner, when giving his many supporters few anxious moments when landing a gamble in that 34-runner race in October; looks Group-race winnerwaiting to happen, although tempo of this race will be very different

and about Multidimensional he said
Not been the easiest to get to the track but fine strike-rate, four wins out of six starts including a Group 2 in 2006; better than ever last autumn on return from hairline fracture of pelvis and fifth place in Champion Stakes after being hampered does not do him justice; likely further Group-race success awaits this year

I know your saying that the trainer knows the hore better than anyone else but have you looked at the entries for both
let me know what race the horses will be best to win

have fun

Sean,
I had a look at the Nwm 4.20 for you and priced it up to a theoretical overround of 120%. Even though this is about a G Hall 'key' race IMO, it's too early in the season for me (I rather like Stotsfold )
Stars
5 Pipedreamer 5/4, improver. Gosden/Fortune combo have started well. 3rd 6/4
4 Multidimensional 11/4, could have a good season. 4th 2/1
3 Pheonix Tower 10/3, looks 2nd string to Multidimensional. WON 8/1
3 Kandidate 9/1, not quite group class
3 Halicarnassus 13/2, not an easy task today

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Yes, my vdw attempts have been very poor to date.

it's ironic that i am a follower of Cecil and, as discussed with Les, believe in "2nd string" backing.

Backed pipedreamer Place Only, but didn't back any of Henry's to day!

A right fk up, but as Jack says, it's early days yet.

the scottish national on saturday sean were 2nd string WILL prevail i,m sure of it

Is Old benny the 2nd string?

yes do you think so rab

Aye Les just hope Choc thortoun has picked the wrong one

looks very well placed, good speed lto,good weight,good weight movement from lto,good placing within the handicap ,what more do we want

saddo 09 Apr 18:48


stats from last year.
Coral Scottish Grand Nationa
3.30 Ayr
Key trends
No older than ten, ten winners in ten runnings

Top-five finish last time out, 10/10 ( last years winner only 6th)

No more than 24 chase runs, 10/10

Won over at least 3m, 9/10 (five had won beyond 3m2f)

No more than six runs that season, 9/10

Won a class 1 or 2 chase, 9/10

Officially rated between 132 and 143, 8/10 (two higher)

Other factors

Four of the last seven winners had clocked their best Racing Post Rating in the last 12 months in a Grade 3 handicap chase. Only two winners had run at the Grand National meeting that season (both in minor handicaps) and only three had run at the Cheltenham Festival (all finished unplaced).BR
There have been two winning novices (both of whom had winning form in handicap company) and there were another two such winners in the early 1990s.BR
Since 1982, ten winners have been out of the handicap, including four between 11lb and 17lb.BR
Weight isn't too important, although four of the last five winners carried no more than 10st 6lb. Class (those carrying at least 11st 10lb) has prevailed on three occasions.

From betfair forum.

? WHY IS IT THAT THE BIGGEST PRIZE OF THE DAY IS USUALLY WON BY A HORSE THAT CAN BE FILTERED BY AT LEAST ONE OF THE FOLLOWING

1)TOP 3/4 ABILITY
2)TOP 3/4 CLASS LTO (PRIZE MONEY)
3)THREE MOST CONSISTENT FROM BETTING
4)FIVE MOST CONSISTENT IF LARGE FIELD

feel free to add any more vdw tools that can form a short list

Dunno, Paul, but I'm beginning to fancy
UNBEATEN horses now.

When checking recently, to see why my vdw attempts have done so badly, I've noticed that the winner was a lightly raced, undefeated type.

On the road today, so no attempt at vdw, but

I want to dutch Conquest and Oldjoesaid in the 2.40.

Ayr 4.00

This is a G Hall 'key' type race IMO . The basic methodology has eliminated Dear Villez the Nicholls/Thomas combo - does that appear wise?
The star contenders are priced up to a theoretical overround of 120%:
Stars
5 Endless Power 5/2, C&D good win LTO, weight? 3rd 11/2
4 Lysander 85/40, may be capable of better. UR 5/1
3 Three Mirrors 6/1, C&D goes well at this time of the year, weight? WON 6/1
3 Edmo Yewkay 8/1, trip suits. 4th 22/1

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

SEAUN
Well done with OLDJOESAID LOWEST / BEST CONSISTENCY 13
wELL DONE TO JACK WITH THREE MIRRORS 2ND BEST CLASS LTO 375

IM SURE YOU BOTH NEW THAT ANYWAY

Paul,

No, in my case, I have to admit that I hadn't even checked that about Old Joe. This animal came to light for me because of " Topspeed" figures mainly.
I had it between OJ and Conquest.

As it happens i found my offer on btfr for OJ had NOT been matched when I got home.


Actually, that seems to be always a good sign.
Whereas, my bet on Conquest was taken immediately. Stoute's runners have been poor so far this week, and the thing drifted way out in the betting and then ran poorly.
They knew!

Well done to JIB, whose methods picked out the right one!

And well done to Jack , who, once again, put up a profitable short list. I notice he's smart enough to avoid the early season flat!

Btw,

thanks for the gen on the S N, lads!

old benny looks ok today i dont think king has went through all the weight compression thing for nothing a horse improving for distance

Scottish Grand National

This is a G Hall 'key' type race IMO. Not having time to collate the information to value the race I have taken the D. Mail Formcast ratings as a reasonable indicator and priced them up accordingly with a theoretical overround of 147%:
Stars
5 Miko De Beuchene 8/1, improver and likely contender
4 Opera Mundi 17/2, in hcap proper with potential at the weight, D? Nicholls/Walsh combo going well.
3 Halcon Genelardais 17/2, merits respect, weight? King/Thornton combo going well.
3 Patsy Hall 9/1, stamina to prove, D?
3 Old Benny 10/1, in with a chance with the weight at the D

jack can i ask you a question do the horses that have five in your vdw grid fair better than four or three

Les,

The answer is NO they do not. Take the Scot Gran Nat today, as well as the top 3 star ratings the others were:
Stars
2 Noir Et Vert
1 Wild cane Ridge
1 Kilbeggan Blade
1 Flintoff 3rd 28/1 Williams/Coleman combo goping well
1 Ossmoses
1 Model Son
1 Iris De Baume WON 66/1
1 In The Loop

To be fair the races I have posted are not really the basic VDW methodology as I show them by the total starred factors attained. Strictly speaking those with class and consistency stars should only be considered if they are confirmed by both sets of ratings, in my case usually RPR and Daily Mail Formcast. In that case the only one to consider today would have been:
Stars
5 Miko De Beauchene 8/1, improver contender (against it I had the fact that the Alner/Watford combo have not been so successful in the past few weeks. Also the horse's overall win strike-rate is below 20% and that is not brilliant at this level). It's always easier with hindsight . I don't know if that helps?
maybe I will do a couple of races and show all the workings (if there are not too many runners).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,