You would think a trainer would need to be careful where he placed his horse even when he did`nt want it to win eh?, specially if it was nearing its best.He might need to stack up the negatives to make sure.

Slightly related to the theme of trainers placing their charges, i forgot to mention David Evans.

This fella scores most Mondays, and when he has two in a race, don't overlook the "second" string:

" 5.00 Windsor Result

1st 10 Kensington (IRE) 20-1
2nd 12 Savile's Delight (IRE) 11-1
3rd 3 Cheap Street 15-2



Winning Trainer P D Evans
Winning Jockey S Donohoe
Distances sh, 3 1/4l
Unpl. Fav Memphis Man 5-1 fav ( trained by PD Evans)

--


1 2 Kensington (IRE) 8-12 S Donohoe P D Evans 7 20/1
chased leader in centre course, pushed along over 2f out, hung left before led 1f out, strongly pressed final furlong, held on, all out opened 18/1
2 6 s.h Savile's Delight (IRE) 8-11 R Kingscote Tom Dascombe 9 11/1
led in centre, taken towards far side 2f out, narrowly headed 1f out, rallied, edged left well inside final furlong, just held opened 12/1 touched 14/1
3 7 3¼ Cheap Street 9-3 R L Moore J G Portman 4 15/2
chased leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on under pressure final furlong, not pace to reach front pair opened 9/1 touched 7/1
4 12 hd Memphis Man 9-1 T G McLaughlin P D Evans 5 5/1 f
slowly into stride, took keen hold, held up in rear, headway on far rail over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong opened 6/1

---

Unfortunately, I didn't have a bet in this race!

Btw, I realise it's nothing to do with vdw.

looking at p evans sean do you think he could push the boat out and get a winner on a tuesday he had a double yesterday

Nottingham 4.20

I have said I don't touch the Flat turf until after the Guineas meeting, but here's one Why? A member stated that anyone and everyone should have no problems with 'narrowing the field', it is just the final selection that can be difficult - I'm not so sure. For this 3yo hcap I took time as the class factor instead of prize money as part of the basic methodology. In line with my opinion that nobody should be trading in the market without some idea of prices I scored the factors, rated them, valued and priced them, including a theoretical overround of 127%:

Stars
5 Jaser 6/4, C&D and an obvious contender, Chapple-Hyam/Munro combo are going well. WON 6/4
4 Sky Diver 85/40, AW winner that has scope, 210 days off track, G?D?
4 Crosstar 4/1, improver on AW surfaces, G?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Well done with Jaser, Jack! I didn't see your post and i was on the losing Diver.

Les,

Well, he did it! I wasn't on.

Most of my bets went down the pan today. No excuse, as I am a follower of Cecil, who had a good winner. I was on his other one!

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
Vincent

Whether VDW was 'real' or not is academic as far as I'm concerned, whether he knew what he was talking about isn't, and I have read enough, and seen enough, to be convinced that he knew a deal more about racing than anyone else I have come across in a long, long time in the game.
Perhaps you can advise me where else I can read that most horses in many races aren't really out to win, or chapter and verse on how a trainer races and places a horse to ready it to win?
Who else informed us about horses showing improvement when raised in class, or that the value of the race has a direct impact on the kind of horses in it, and therefore the subsequent form?
Nowhere but nowhere have I seen that kind of detail, and I have read a hell of a lot of racing and betting books by supposedly knowledgeable people and informed insiders. How many other betting advisers last for 30 years and still have books written about them and internet forums discussing their works?
Answer me those questions, and you might just convince me that you have a case, otherwise do what many others have, slag off from the sidelines while pretending you understand something you haven't even bothered to study.

HELLO JOHND

You imply that I have not studied the examples given, I have. I have form books going back to 66 both flat and NH, I have them in Haig Super and Official. I also have latter years though in dispersed but more importantly those that contain the very latest examples! I have studied and know my subject, I grant you I may be on the sideline but I most certainly do not pretend to understand.

I may be alot younger than your kindly self but I would wager that I have more publications pre VDW than you could ever imagine and that is where my criticism is founded. Nothing new?

The infatuation with VDW and the inflammatory exaggerations will lead most to the insanity parlour. What about Mr JB - tried so very hard and was blanked -think about him when you rest your head tonight - and ask yourself why?

I have really tried to impart on you and others in the last few weeks (I HAVE BEEN IN THE GALLERY BUT NOT FOR REASONS SOME WOULD PRESUME) an understanding of VDW but they choose to ignore, it is simplicity and not the shortcut that seems to be desired.

You yourself ask of many questions of most I can understand why but I would question your own devotion to the helping of others. If as it appears in your mind I have "slagged off" then I would really ask you to take a second long look at the majority of good posts I have uploaded.

I will tender my resignation from this forum in one week from now and will not return (to let others have their say against me and to have one final judgement), it has just about been given on a plate but more is wanted, IT IS NOT I WHO HAS NOT STUDIED OR PUT THE TIME IN. It really is not rocket science, only those who seek a miracle seem to further their want.

I WISH YOU WELL AND I MEAN NO HARM OR TO OFFEND.

BUT YOU REALLY NEED TO CHECK THOSE MIRRORS.AND DO NOT TAKE COLLATERAL FORM AS A WHOLE.

Please remember JB (huge moral question) and has VDW looked in?

THANK YOU

VINCENT

Serious stuff there, Vincent.
I, for one, would be sorry to see you go. I hope you don't.

Anyway, though I'm probably one of those who hasn't studied vdw properly, I have made some selections for tomorrow's big race:

Nell Gwyn Stakes, 345 Newmarket.

NIJOOM DUBAI ( based on my take on vdw methodology)

whereas my own selection is
SPINNING LUCY, which came second in my vdw-type tests, but looks a better bet to me.

I have to admit to not checking how the trainers placed these. Nor , indeed, did I look in the mirrors.

Come on then; lets have the real McCoy from those that know!

vincent, i hope you decide to stay on board,..after reading your post i feel your intensions are positive about van der wheils, methods..but after reading vdw, examples articles .other discussions on vdw, .the crpted word..wish someone could explain even parts in selecting these horses.

Vincent

You may not think you have 'slagged off', but "the only truth he gave was hard work" does VDW no justice at all and, despite your extensive library, you have failed to mention a single publication that gives one item of the 4 very specific details VDW gave us that I set out in my post to you. You claim VDW is a plagiarist, yet have no evidence of where he plagiarised from???
Whatever or whoever VDW was/is, there is no doubt in my mind that he knew/told more about reading form than anyone else I have read or communicated with. I wouldn't disagree that it is simple, neither did VDW.
Having had some communication with the unfortunate JB, all I can say is that he was just another in a long line who purported to know all about the method then found they didn't. Others have been more fortunate and still make money from his wisdom, why else would they maintain an interest, 30 years on?
You obviously think that it's all about collateral form, and make a few cryptic remarks from the sidelines as justification, I don't, and give long and detailed reasons why. Maybe you think that your way is good for the forum, maybe I don't.
Nothing personal at all, but how many posters do you think we've had on here over the years who have tried to appear enigmatic, and given very little at the end of the day? Dozens would be understating it.
I hope you don't leave the forum as I'm sure you could add something useful but, please, spare us the smoke and mirrors stuff.

Sean

Bit early in the season yet, so no bet at Newmarket tomorrow, though BERBICE came close in the Free Handicap

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Thanks, johnd, but

isn't the first basic of vdw methodology
to pick

the most valuable race of the day?

I'd missed any mention of waiting for the season to establish, even though i know it is a sensible thing done by many punters.

Anyway, I stuck my neck out and offered something.

In practice, I don't think I'll be backing "my" vdw -type selection, ND.

I prefer Spinning Lucy, Shabiba, and Rinterval.
I may do these in EW doubles with Kandahar Run.

In Bebice's race,
I'd take it on with
EXCLAMATION
and
FATBOY.

I like the earnings, strike rate, and Course stats, plus the jockeys.

---

Btw, when you're asking about who did the author of the vdw stuff plagiarise from, I believe the answer is from the AMERICAN writers of the previous ten years.
They were chatting about " Earnings per Start" and that sort of thing.

VINCENT if a lot of of horses in there races are not there to win that would make collateral form useless and leave you with class and speed ratings is that what your hinting at?

the only time i think vdw mentions collateral ratings its to say how out of step they are ie henbit blakeney?

Sean

You really should read more VDW.
The 16/1 available suggests Berbice is unlikely to be fit enough for this.
Good luck with your bets.

Cheltenham 4.40

Priced with a theoretical overround of 112%.
Stars
5 Petite Lord 5/4, tough return after 155 days off track? Nicholls/Walsh combo going well.
5 Beat The Boys 3/1, flopped here LTO a month ago but has courage. Twiston-Davies/Brennan combo have been going well. WON 3/1
4 Joe Lively 13/8, C&D and the form horse but may be tired? 2nd 7/4

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Well, my selections were very poor, indeed.

I should have gone with Berbice's race, where , at least, Fat Boy was a very close 2nd in a photo.

Nobody took up the challenge of the biggest race of the day, so we'll never know whether I had identified the vdw horse or not.

I'd say Infallible was a very impressive, good winner, whatever.
Nijoom Dubai was crap, imo.

I'll have a look at tomorrow's card and make another attempt.

Sean,
If my memory serves me right VDW advised leaving 2 & 3yo races alone on the Flat turf until the month of June and to only consider all-aged handicaps at this stage of the season. IMO there was nothing at Newmarket today and only the Beverley 3.20 could have been looked at, but it didn't qualify as a 'key' race. Hope this helps.

Thanks, Jack.

That seems sensible.

I've had a look at tomorrow's Newmarket card and chosen the 4.20 race.
I make
PIPEDREAMER

the vdw-type selection.

quote:

Originally posted by sean rua:
Thanks, Jack.

That seems sensible.

I've had a look at tomorrow's Newmarket card and chosen the 4.20 race.
I make
PIPEDREAMER

the vdw-type selection.

Sean
Totally agree!

Multidimensional has already got group status so i'd be siding with him I think Pipedreamer will need the run

have fun