HOME »
Remember, the navigation above doesn't work. Use the Thread Index »
|
Go
 |
New
|
Find
|
Notify
|
Tools
|
Reply
|
|
|
Member |
Walter, I wasn't trying to bring you into that dabate I was just using a race that was being discussed as an example. In hindsight, or if you take the same view as JohnD before the race, Mr Nicholls ran the horse on the wrong course. I was trying to show at times it isn't easy to spot which is or isn't the correct course. As you have shown the configuration of some courses it is open to interruption, even top jockeys and trainers don't agree at times. For anyone that wishes to use this in their analysis the best idea is to form your own opinion. Be Lucky |
|||
|
Member |
Id agree with that. ................................................................. MUSSELBURGH EH21 7RG TEL:0131 665 2859 Right handed. Dual. Sharp flat track, suits moderate speedy types. |
|||
|
|
Member |
Vincent/Mtoto etc It's all gone very quiet on this one; can we now take it that that VDW didn't read form by simply comparing how one horse ran against another? This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd, |
|||
|
|
Member |
|
|||
|
|
Member |
Here`s a snippet from the Brocklesby
RUNNERS Sally's Dilemma - trainer's runners in better condition early in 2008 if she is a good indicator. Had the best of the conditions and looked a typical ready type lacking scope to develop beyond early season. Probably an OR70s rater and not better class. Trainer will probably try to win the fillies' Thirsk Novice in April and the early May Salisbury Conditions race with her. Solid chance in first of those but will come up short if Hannon has something for Salisbury. Note she was bought by trainer Mick Easterby at the sales who had promised Turner he would have a horse with him. They do cattle business together apparently. In the paper she was noted as owned by E Brook (an Easterby owner?) but ran in Mick's own colours. |
|||
|
|
Member |
Interesting stuff!
re the GN: Enjoyed it, Les. Had a nice walk around the course in the morning ( Bechers and all that). Only had one live bet on the day; got the Barney Curley winning fav in the first race ( a charity race). Didn't budge from the rail for the rest of the afternoon till just before the bumper. Cashed in and got out of there. Viewing in Tatts isn't too good. It would be better to pay extra and get up in a stand someplace. All in all, not too bad at all. -- re Particular Horses: I was at Cheltenham and at Aintree. Nothing to do with vdw or anything except personal preference and opinion, my own three from the meetings are Denman Tidal Bay Binocular. Give me those three, and you can keep the rest!! |
|||
|
|
Member |
PS
re GN I had several small antepost bets mostly place only on btfr. When i got home i found, despite a half dozen losers, i had made a decent profit! This was mainly from King John's Castle ( 2nd). Covered the losses made on Simon   |
|||
|
|
Member |
|
|||
|
|
Member |
|
|||
|
|
Member |
JohnD, I think it may have gone quite because you are a very hard person to have a discussion with. Your right, and there is no other possible explanation. Not sure where or why you think I think I take the view stated in your quote. I have never advocated taking the bare form, and always look for a reason why. Be Lucky |
|||
|
|
Member |
Tut, tut, Mtoto.
Aren't you letting your personal prejudice over-ride what should be a reasonable topic for discussion?  Now, do you think you could put your toys back in the pram, and answer properly what seems to me an important and wholly pertinent question? |
|||
|
|
Member |
JohnD, Why do you think the toys are out of the pram? They are not, all I did was answer your question. If you can show me where I have EVER said VDW used collateral, or the form at face value I would be more than happy to answer your important/pertinent question. Be Lucky |
|||
|
|
Member |
MTOTO
THE NAME BUBBLES SPRINGS TO MIND,BOTH BUBBLES AND JOHND WILL NEVER ANSWER A STRAIGHT QUESTION, BOTH ARE NEVER WRONG , BOTH HAVE NEVER CONSISTENTLY HIT THE ILLUSIVE 80% STRIKE RATE. |
|||
|
|
Member |
FFS, Mtoto
 The discussion isn't about you, or how you operate! Any number of people, on this board and others, (Not least, some of your own associates) have made it fairly clear that they assume that VDW read form by comparing how one horse ran against another. If you wind in your neck a little, you will see that I never included you amongst them. The Binocular/Celestial Halo discussion has hopefully illustrated that cannot have been how VDW did it (read form), therefore these people's assumption must be faulty? Yes or no? |
|||
|
|
Member |
JohnD, As you addressed your post to me, and Vincent and demanded an answer I could only assume you did include me. If you didn't I don't understand your post asking for an answer. It is on record (although as you call them my associates) doesn't mean I agree with them in all matters VDW. I do respect their ideas, as I do anyone how has spent time studying VDW. Because I don't agree with them doesn't necessarily mean they are wrong, just we don't agree. Thinking about it I can't think of anyone who does take the ability rating at face value. I also can't think of any of these "associates" who doesn't use the capability aspect of the formula to some degree at times overriding the a/rating at times. Agreed there are a few that have to use collateral form to try and make sense of a few of the examples. Soaf is the example that comes to mind. I don't agree I don't think collateral form plays ANY part in VDW thinking. VDW said..............Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated along with the other aspects such as distance, going, track, etc. So it is obvious in the end game horse do have to be compared, and that bare form/class isn't enough Be Lucky |
|||
|
|
Junior Member |
Hi all, nice to see you all still debating the Van Der Wheil method.
Has no one cracked it yet? |
|||
|
|
Member |
hi mtoto, everyone..
vdw, first example rope ladder,..although mentioned as a horse to be listed..speed figures..was this mentioned for any other reasons . welcome, madeingb, good to see someone has worked out vdw, excellent methods..do you have any articles on the beldale flutter, example..thanks |
|||
|
|
Member |
John D
Simplicity. There are no secret nos. Check your mirrors. What is in front does not show the level. What is behind does. Do not view collateral form as a whole. Get away from VDW sit back and relax the only truth he gave was hard work as many before him have and many after have also. The form book, The form book, The form book. IT IS A DREAMERS WRITINGS YOU ARE HANGING ONTO. CHILL OUT, CALM DOWN AND TAKE A HOLIDAY. There are some merits in the letters but they are not complex, he eventually got out of his depth and pretended to be ill (Jock Bingham may have played a part). I would offer long odds on he has tuned in to various discussions at some stage but not taken part. What a horse has been beaten by WILL NOT tell you what it can bet. SIMPLICITY THANK YOU VINCENT |
|||
|
|
Member |
Vincent
Whether VDW was 'real' or not is academic as far as I'm concerned, whether he knew what he was talking about isn't, and I have read enough, and seen enough, to be convinced that he knew a deal more about racing than anyone else I have come across in a long, long time in the game. Perhaps you can advise me where else I can read that most horses in many races aren't really out to win, or chapter and verse on how a trainer races and places a horse to ready it to win? Who else informed us about horses showing improvement when raised in class, or that the value of the race has a direct impact on the kind of horses in it, and therefore the subsequent form? Nowhere but nowhere have I seen that kind of detail, and I have read a hell of a lot of racing and betting books by supposedly knowledgeable people and informed insiders. How many other betting advisers last for 30 years and still have books written about them and internet forums discussing their works? Answer me those questions, and you might just convince me that you have a case, otherwise do what many others have, slag off from the sidelines while pretending you understand something you haven't even bothered to study. This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd, |
|||
|
|
Jedi Knight Member  |
A few of the many things I have underlined in The Golden Years that may be relevant to recent discussions. I have given the page number from TGY so people can note the context in which they were written.
Formula (pg 21) "If you care to put the method into a logical formula it is quite simple. Constant Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners". Weight (pg 65) "...horse have INDIVIDUAL weight limits beyond which they do not perform and that these limits, by and large, fall in the range given. If a horse is set to carry more than they have previously performed well with, it is reasonable to assume that the day will not be theirs, irrespective of other factors". and (pg 64) "...under NH rules and taking both handicap chases and hurdles, 75% of winners carry 11st 5lb or less and that 50% come from the BOTTOM half of the framed handicap". Comparing (pg 44) "Sunset Cristo is a close joint second on ability, super consistent and other data lends support. The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it, Silver Buck, Another Captain etc... " Ability Rating (pg 35) "For obvious reasons this is not foolproof, but at least it enables better judgement to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few". Answers (pg 25) "Mr Swann may care to thought not to the race as a whole but to the respective horses' respective performances over the last two furlong in each of their three previous outings. What a horse does or does not do at this stage will provide the answers". and (pg 43) "...study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race". BC  |
|||
|
| Powered by Eve Community | Page 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 ... 107 |
 | Please Wait. Your request is being processed... |
|
|
|