quote:

Originally posted by paul:
BC
IF RECKLESS VENTURE HAD RUN TODAY, WHY IN YOUR OPINION WAS IT GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN.
REGARDS TO SALMON GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN , THIS IS WHAT A SALMON NATURALLY DOES.WHAT IS IT THAT A HORSE NATURALLY DOES AGAINST THE GRAIN,BUGGERED IF I KNOW, IF THERE IS A ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IM ALL EARS.

Look at the last few races of the two horses that I indicated may pose a problem. Then look at the last few races of Reckless Venture (in the way I indicated i.e. horse A, horse X etc). RV had been running against animals of lower class than those of the other two. This isn't to say RV couldn't have won today necessarily. Just that IF it had won, then it would have een swimming against the current, and in doing so, proving itself to be a better horse than the form of its recent two wins would indicate.

I just wanted to try and use an example that was out today. A better example for sure was Tidal Bay yesterday, which was a (imo) a standout bet. (Mind you, the horse that finished second has probably got a big future).

This is just my take on things though Paul. I am not claiming guru status!!

BC

It`s a hard fect eh?.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCZGqcMZ6Jw&feature=related

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

quote:

Originally posted by BlackCat:

quote:

Originally posted by paul:
BC
IF RECKLESS VENTURE HAD RUN TODAY, WHY IN YOUR OPINION WAS IT GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN.
REGARDS TO SALMON GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN , THIS IS WHAT A SALMON NATURALLY DOES.WHAT IS IT THAT A HORSE NATURALLY DOES AGAINST THE GRAIN,BUGGERED IF I KNOW, IF THERE IS A ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IM ALL EARS.

Look at the last few races of the two horses that I indicated may pose a problem. Then look at the last few races of Reckless Venture (in the way I indicated i.e. horse A, horse X etc). RV had been running against animals of lower class than those of the other two. This isn't to say RV couldn't have won today necessarily. Just that IF it had won, then it would have een swimming against the current, and in doing so, proving itself to be a better horse than the form of its recent two wins would indicate.

I just wanted to try and use an example that was out today. A better example for sure was Tidal Bay yesterday, which was a (imo) a standout bet. (Mind you, the horse that finished second has probably got a big future).

This is just my take on things though Paul. I am not claiming guru status!!

BC

BC
EVEN THOUGH STAND ON ME AND BEST ACCOLADE HAD NOT WON A RACE TO DATE , ARE YOU USING THEM AS BENCH MARKS BECAUSE OF THEIR OFFICIAL RATING OR BECAUSE THEY ARE BOTH RUNNING BELOW THEIR CLASS AND RECKLESS VENTURE IS RUNNING WITHIN ITS CLASS OR BECAUSE THEY ARE NEXT BEST IN THE BETTING FORECAST AFTER RECKLESS VENTURE.

JohnD,

Each to his own. At a recent racing symposium Micky Fitz said Cheltenham was a speed course, do you agree with that? I think with racing certain words mean different things to different people, as long as they know what they mean does it really matter? I'm using speed as a differential against/to power, and as I said I then rank them from there. It works for me, and it is me that places my bets, not the racing post, or dare I say it not you.

Paul,

As you can see even classifying courses is down to personal preferences. If you use the links I posted the best idea is for you to make up your own mind. Work it like a paper trIal of bets, and see how it works for you. I think with more than a few courses you will find different folk have very different ideas about THAT course. For a long time I had Newcastle as a power (stiff) course, but when I tried to put this into practise I found it often didn't work. From memory I think you will find some classify Ascot as a flat course, whereas I have it as a power course (uphill finish). I know they have modified the track recently, but it is still a power track according to the results. IMO. A word of warning, just because a horse has won on a track doesn't mean that track is ideal. ALWAYS check to see what it beat on that track looking at the CLASS of the competition (however you measure it).

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Like most things VDW, it is really all down to common sense.
On more than one occasion, he described Newmarket, Newbury, York, Ascot, Goodwood, Sandown and Doncaster, all as stiff tracks. There is a good reason for this, and it is the same reason that he advised following horses that produced good speed figures from those courses. If you don't agree with those, then really you are arguing against VDW, not me.
I am also fairly certain that VDW recognised Cheltenham as a stiff test and, while I have a deal of respect for Mick Fitzgerald, one of the most articulate and knowledgeable of today's jockeys, and without knowing the context in which he said it, I could probably name hundreds of races (Including Celestial Halo's ) where that thinking is proved wrong.

quote:

Originally posted by paul:

BC
EVEN THOUGH STAND ON ME AND BEST ACCOLADE HAD NOT WON A RACE TO DATE , ARE YOU USING THEM AS BENCH MARKS BECAUSE OF THEIR OFFICIAL RATING OR BECAUSE THEY ARE BOTH RUNNING BELOW THEIR CLASS AND RECKLESS VENTURE IS RUNNING WITHIN ITS CLASS OR BECAUSE THEY ARE NEXT BEST IN THE BETTING FORECAST AFTER RECKLESS VENTURE.

Hi Paul

"BECAUSE THEY ARE BOTH RUNNING BELOW THEIR CLASS AND RECKLESS VENTURE IS RUNNING WITHIN ITS CLASS".

Mtoto added this at the end of his note to you: "ALWAYS check to see what it beat on that track looking at the CLASS of the competition". Sounds familiar.

Once again, please don't think I've got it all sussed, 'cos I haven't. However, I strongly suspect this is the "IT", and it does seem to be "common sense" to me.

BC

MTOTO / BLACKCAT

BIG THANK YOU

Celestaial Halo

OK... at johnd's nudge, I've been looking at the form of Celestial Halo in conjunction with CDSystems NH Track Matrix (thanks again Mtoto).

He won at Cheltenham - a stiff, undulating, uphill track.

He also ran at:
Newbury - a galloping, flat track (where he won, but beat nothing much)
Doncaster - a galloping, flat track (where he lost twice)

Then he came to Aintree - a tight, flat track - more like the Newbury/Doncaster description than Cheltenham.

Looking at the pre-Aintree form of Binocular, although winning at a Kempton - a tight, flat track - the 2nd, Pierrot Lunaire, had at the time, not distinguished himself as anything special.

Binocular and Celestial Halo set the standard for the race by some way. My conclusion from the track evidence is that while Binocular may or may not have a liking for the course type, Celestial Halo had already proved twice that he didn't.

How's that?!

quote:

Binocular and Celestial Halo set the standard for the race by some way. My conclusion from the track evidence is that while Binocular may or may not have a liking for the course type, Celestial Halo had already proved twice that he didn't.

BC,

While I agree with your findings, the conclusion is formed in/on hindsight. What you haven't said is Binocular's best race up to that time had also been at Cheltenham. On the Cheltenham figures, s/f and class I have nothing between them B slightly faster but in a slightly lower class. So both have shown they are at their best at Cheltenham (a power course), and nothing between them pricewise. Both have winning form on a flat track, although on the figures B's form is strongest on that type of track. Before the Aintree race would you have really been happy to say B was the clear cut winner?

Be Lucky

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:
While I agree with your findings, the conclusion is formed in/on hindsight. What you haven't said is Binocular's best race up to that time had also been at Cheltenham. On the Cheltenham figures, s/f and class I have nothing between them B slightly faster but in a slightly lower class. So both have shown they are at their best at Cheltenham (a power course), and nothing between them pricewise. Both have winning form on a flat track, although on the figures B's form is strongest on that type of track. Before the Aintree race would you have really been happy to say B was the clear cut winner?

Be Lucky

Hi Mtoto

In short "no". And thats not what I said either!!

Before Aintree, I suggested them as a dutch. However, at the prices on offer, I did not feel it was worthwhile, so didn't back either of them. (I did back both Inglis Drever and Kauto Star). The purpose of the above analysis was to try and use the track information (which is all new to me) on a race that I had already analysed before I had the track matrix.

Please note that I did say "Looking at the pre-Aintree form of Binocular, although winning at a Kempton - a tight, flat track - the 2nd, Pierrot Lunaire, had at the time, not distinguished himself as anything special". and "Binocular may or may not have a liking for the course type".

Thanks for taking the time to help tho' - much appreciated.

BC

Black Cat.

If you're comparing horses, you should know that Paul Nicholls considers Pierrot Luminair considerably inferior to Celestial Halo, and has said so on a number of occcasions. You might also consider why all of his runs have been on sharp tracks, and why he didn't run at Cheltenham.
Apart from their NH form indicating that Celsetial Halo would be much better suited to Cheltenham than Aintree, (Which it clearly does - though you won't find the answer in speed figures), you might consider their respective flat form.
B is clearly a 10f horse, while CH is equally clearly a stayer.
What type of course do you think they'd perform best on?

OK... I think the fog MIGHT be clearing...

A stayer is more likely to have stamina - so a stiff course might suit better.
A 10f horse is more likely to have more speed, so a flat, fast course might suit better.

Close?

BLACKCAT
comply or die WHICH WOULD BE HES BEST TRACK HE WAS BRED TO STAY AND GALLOP, SURLY AINTREE WOULD NOT BE HES BEST TRACK.

quote:

Originally posted by paul:
BLACKCAT
comply or die WHICH WOULD BE HES BEST TRACK HE WAS BRED TO STAY AND GALLOP, SURLY AINTREE WOULD NOT BE HES BEST TRACK.

Particularly over 4.5 miles of the much stiffer Grand National course than the sharp 2m Sefton which Celestial Halo ran on??
FFS Paul, give it up.

BC

You might find the RP summary of the race helpful?

"This time round however, the Triumph winner Celestial Halo looked to have more on his plate in theshape of BINOCULAR, who was taking on his own age group once again having beaten all bar Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last time out.
It had not always been the plan for him to go to Cheltenham, and had connections stuck with their original route and bypassed the festival in favour of this race, he would have been unbeaten in three starts over hurdles this season, with the last performance in particular especially taking. Although he raced a bit keenly early on, he was soon travelling well when hot on the heels of the leader and his rider bided his time patiently before taking it up at the last, winning easily. The different tactics here, where his main rival was in front of him, suited this speed horse, whose jumping looks to begetting slicker with each start. Initial quotes after the race of 12-1 and 10-1 about him for next season's Champion Hurdle with Coral and William Hill respectively were shortlived with the pair going 9-1 and 8-1. He still has plenty to find on Katchit, but if he continues to go the right way, he could emerge as a real contender next year.
Celestial Halo now has a pair of ones and a pair of twos next to his name after four starts over hurdles. His previous defeat was blamed on him being undercooked, but it would be hard to blame this reversal on anything else other than coming up against a rival who on the day was better. A smart middle-distance performer on the Flat, there remains the suspicion that despite his win in the Triumph he will still beseen to better effect over further".

quote:

Originally posted by paul:
BLACKCAT
comply or die WHICH WOULD BE HES BEST TRACK HE WAS BRED TO STAY AND GALLOP, SURLY AINTREE WOULD NOT BE HES BEST TRACK.

Hi Paul,

The GN is not a race I looked at beforehand Paul. 40 runners over those ridiculously enormous fences - for me, money might be better invested on the lottery!!

This track stuff is new to me too - I'm just finding my feet with it at the moment. Perhaps Johnd, Mtoto or Les who tipped it elsewhere would have an opinion???

All I'd offer is that he has done well over big fences, and needed a ton of stamina (which Newcastle and Cheltenham have shown) to get around the distance at Aintree over those huge obstacles and at consistent speed. As Mtoto pointed out earlier, it easy to "see" these things with hindsight.

Feel free to disagree with my observations - as I say, I'm just starting out with this course stuff too!!

What do you think?

BC

I tend to agree that the GN can be a bit of a lottery but

check how well the market did

and

how well RPR did!

Hi Guys,
Just some further food for thought re CELESTIAL HALO, was he really not suited to the flat speed track that is Aintree? as he did equal his best Topspeed figure in defeat, also Raceform/Racingpost comments describe him as "hard driven" during his Triumph Hurdle win, would VDW have seen this as evidence of having a hard race and a reason to leave alone next time out?
Cheers RE

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:

BC

You might find the RP summary of the race helpful?

Err... not really. I read it three times, but - to me - it just seems to confirm what I'd already written. i.e.

A stayer is more likely to have stamina - so a stiff course might suit better.
A 10f horse is more likely to have more speed, so a flat, fast course might suit better.

Would you say I was off track then?