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well done Jack
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JOHND WHY COULD YOU NOT SAY THAT IN THE FIRST PLACE. JOHN YOU DID SAY THERE WAS A FAIRLY SIMPLE REASON / ANSWER TO WHY THE HORSES GOT BEAT, NOW YOU ARE SAYING VIA VDW TO CONFIRM WHAT THE FIGURES SAY IT IS NECESSARY TO STUDY THE FORM OF ALL CONCERENED. BLACK CAT HAS A VALID POINT WHEN HE USES THE WORD BORING |
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Is there a specific book you might recommend?
BC, There used to be a book called Profile published by Nomadic Press, but I think they no longer operate. The other book that showed "profiling" was Betting For A Living by Nick Mordin. The general idea is to gather as much information as possible about an INDIVIDUAL horses traits as possible. Re course types a good general over view can be found at http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/flattrack.htm and http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/nhtrack.htm. These will give you the basics, whether or not you accept their thinking word for word is up to you. Irish, and French courses can be found on the net if necessary. Basically I split all courses down into two main types flat = speed and stiff = power. With the speed course obviously these then need to be ranked as some are far easier than others, Epsom/Goodwood = easy, Newbury/Doncaster = medium, Haydock/ Newcastle = stiffest of the speed courses. I think one of the biggest misnomers in racing is " he gets the stiff 7f a sharp 8f will suit" In my d/base I record the course type (and whether it is a straight course, or round a bend) of every performace I consisder worthwhile, so I can see at a glance if the course will suit. After I have worked the bare figures I then study the top ranked horses, in the main looking at the courses, taking into consideration where the horse has won (if those races are not included on the d/base) always looking at the rated competition in the race. VDW said look what the trainer does. If the trainer decides to up a horse in distance and/or run on unproven gound conditions I will nearly always trust his knowledge of the horse. As I only back in top class valuable races I don't think many trainers would take the chance without having a very good idea if the horse can cope. Have to say I think being compered to Ectoo isn't an insult, more a compliment!! Be Lucky |
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but in some of the books vdw is hinting that a 4th from epsom may be better than a secound from ripon and he quotes speed figurs ,i tried to get this going before,how much better are the horses that just do the big tracks,newmarket,york,sandown,goodwood,ascot,newbury they must be worth watching
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Jedi Knight Member  |
Thanks for that Mtoto.
 I'll let you know if I manage to find either of the books. Ebay here I come!! "Have to say I think being compered to Ectoo isn't an insult, more a compliment!!" So do I.  |
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Hi Mtoto
I've prited off the data from the cdsystems site as a handy reference. What an excellent resourse that is. As you say, I think Profile by Nomadic Press is no longer in production. The most recent copy I could find was 2002/3 on High Stakes site. But I shall keep an eye out for the Nick Mordin book. Many, many thanks. BC |
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BlackCat
I have just done a quick search and can find at least a dozen references in my posts to that sentence, variously referred to as magic, all important, etc etc.. It was also referred to afterwards on at least 3 occasions by VDW as vital to solving the puzzle he set, so it is hardly my fault if you can't differentiate between that and the thousands of others he wrote. As a quick guide to course configuration, there are worse aids than can be found by the simple expedient of hovering the cursor over each course in an individual horse's form on the RP website, which - used astutely - will often tell you all you need to know about a particular horse's predilections. Even then, it wouldn't be much use unless all the other advice in that sentence (Which sentence?  ) is taken into account.Mtoto You might care to review some of your thinking about the stiffness etc of various courses? Epsom, for instance, may be regarded as an easy course - which it is up to 9f - but the first 3 furlongs of the Derby course is all uphill, which makes it a very different test. Also, in your appraisal of Celestial Halo you credit the horse with the ability to act to act on a 'speed' course yet he had never jumped around one until this week; Aintree, which was categorically his undoing. You, being you, probably won't, but once again that is hardly my fault. Paul I despair.  This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd, |
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JohnD, Thanks for your input, can I ask how you would classify Epsom and Newbury? You will note I did say to BC it helps to form ones own opinion at times, and I prefer to form my own. Fair enough there is a climb at the start of the longer races at Epsom. Do you think that takes as much out of a horse as a climb at the end of a race? For me Epsom is a speed course as many of the Derby results show. How many win after a race at York or Chester in their preps? How many of these winners fail next time out when they try Ascot or Sandown? Newbury and Doncaster for me are speed courses (middle of the range agreed), Aintree is a speed course, but at the easy(ier) end of the range. If there had been a bigger difference in prices between those two I well may have come down on the side of the Kempton form. At the prices it was a no win bet race for me. unlike the next day with Captain Cee Bee. Be Lucky |
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Interesting
Epsom 12f would appear to be slower than Newbury 12f Based on 1997 Raceform standard times? |
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Paul has a point, in earlier posts we are being informed that it is `ONE` individual, singular, reason `IT` that distinguishes the REAL vdw bets from the hopeful ones.In `THAT` sentence there are a few things to look into course, pace, going allowance, distances won or beaten by etc?.I think it`s a good thing that you guys are looking at course types and configurations, ive often wondered if it is a certain TYPE of horse that we should be searching for i.e. long striding etc and that may tie in with the course thing, he said he appraised all horses from 2 yrs or the beginning of their careers.Most of the vdw guys on here and elsewhere generally agree that one thing runs through all his examples though ive yet to see it explained.
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Jedi Knight Member |
Johnd,
I find your comments very patronising - have you have been invested as an 80%er? The sentence to which you refer doesn't actually give anything concrete as such. No doubt you will throw your hands up in despair at that statement. But let's look at it: "To confirm what the figures say, it is necessary to study the form of all concerned..." Then it goes on to say "taking particular note of:
It is a pointer to form study. A very clear pointer. But a pointer nonetheless. It doesn't actually tell you.... how to assess the "class" in which they ran. (It does elsewhere, but even that explanation leaves more to be done). It doesn't explain what to look out for when assessing courses. It doesn't give a guide on evaluating pace or going. It doesn't advise you what distances won or beaten by are important. And it doesn't state what the important latter stage performance might actually be. Missing from the list are two elements that should also be factored in imo – Trainer and Jockey. I am NOT knocking the letter, which is of immense value in pulling together all these strands of form-study into an assessment of a particular race. But the fact remains that it is left to the reader to find out what's what. And where does he/she find that out? From learning traditional form assessment. The importance of the VDW letters is knowing what to do with your acquired form assessment once you've obtained it. That is, taking each of the elements and putting it all together. To me, the debate has been worthwhile, as I am going to investigate course assessment. So, although irritated by your initial post, I suppose I am grudgingly grateful. For that, thank you.  BTW, were you on Tidal Bay yesterday?  From one who doesn't "know-it-all". BC  |
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Jedi Knight Member |
Hi WP You may remember a while back that when Johnd nudged me in the direction of that "one... it", I wrote "The penny has DROPPED". I was actually trying to tell you what I thought that one thing was - although I think you thought I was just being a smart-arse. Looking back, I could have been more explicit, although it isn't actually that easy to put into words. Anyway, as I wrote yesterday, none of us are getting any younger, I'll have a go. It is my opinion that we should be looking for selections that are DROPPING in class. First reaction will be to say that many, if not most of the selections put up as examples appear to be going up in class. "Appear" being the operative term. There have been two references to this fairly recently, the first coming on 31st December 07 by Trypod. I can't remember who put the other up, but I think it is since then – if I find it, I'll post it. Anyway, here's what Trypod says: "There is a unique way of looking at a horses latest runs in VDW's eyes and from studying the posts by the poster's mentioned in my previous post that they all use. It is logical and simple but it is crucial and vital to find it to understand what VDW was trying to get across. A hint in the right direction would be in the most simplistic way I can describe is " think of a salmon swimming against the current" and if he performs well AGAINST THE GRAIN, he is a horse to keep an eye on for the future". I don't see it as a hint either. As VDW himself said "there is no magic formula". To my mind, that paragraph sums up the "it" perfectly. A live example, due off at 230: If Reckless Venture (the evens fav) wins today, then imo, he will have been swimming against the current. The current being Best Accolade and Stand On Me. BC PS I should've added that it's is not a revolutionary concept. Form lines - you hear race pundits taking about them often. PPS I think for our purposes it's to be used specifically to assess and compare the contenders most recent form in terms of class. So regardless of race values, if horse A beats (or runs close to) horse X (where X is shall we say a proven class 3 type), whereas horse B is beaten by horse Y (where Y is a proven class 5 type) then horse A can be regarded as a higher class animal than horse B. I first got the hint of this many moons ago from a race won by Classified 29/12/01. Looking at the RP, every pointer, every rating and just about every tipster went for See You Sometime. It was also forecast favourite. Nothing 'appeared' to indicate Classified, and yet it went off a stong favourite. I was told by the tipping service I belonged to at the time (CD) NOT to back See You Sometime, even though it fulfilled all their usual criteria because Classified had something in its form that often overturned the obvious form. The only way I could solve that puzzle was via the form-line-class-drop I've tried to outline above. Being new to sport, I thought surely somethng so obvious can't be "it". Hope you can make sense of my ramblings. No doubt many won't agree with me - I'm often wrong about soooooooooooo much!! The older I get, the more that I realise that I know less than I thought I knew". Who said that? This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat, |
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Boozer, Agreed, but when assesing the courses I didn't take any note of the times just the course lay outs. Of course I could be wrong but I doubt Epsom is a overall stiffer course than Newbury. As JohnD pointed out the first 6f or so are on the climb, then you have a down hill run to a sharp(ish) bend. Because of the bend I don't think horses are racing flat out until they have negotiated said bend. They are then into one of the fastest straights in the country, downhill until the last 50 yards. In the main it is the final 5/6f that that confirms the course type for me. Downhill/flat = speed, up hill = power. Be Lucky |
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MTOTO HI
Would it be possible for you to post your speed tracks and your power tracks listing the easiest to the hardest.If the answers no i understand. THANK YOU PAUL |
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Quest For Fame is an interesting one given where he started at 2yrs taking the route he did. Sorry for the delay BC. |
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Mtoto
Without getting too technical, which imo is a waste in VDW terms, a hill is a hill, and where-ever it appears in a race will use just as much energy to climb. Obviously a horse will have more energy at the beginning of a race than at the end, but will use the same amount to climb it whenever it appears. I would disagree that Epsom's 12f course is a 'speed' course, neither is York's Dante course, home of the most significant of the Derby trials. In my definition a 'speed course' would be one with numerous bends to break up the pace, and a short straight where a horse has limited time to build up momentum. Newbury, Doncaster, and York aren't speed courses in VDW's definition, the Racing Post's, and my own. Walter/Blackcat 'IT' is how VDW read form, and runs through all of the examples I have checked it against. Imo it is pointless taking any part of that sentence in isolation, it needs to be understood, and used, as a whole. |
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yes they do Trouble is they all think its summat different  |
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BC IF RECKLESS VENTURE HAD RUN TODAY, WHY IN YOUR OPINION WAS IT GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN. REGARDS TO SALMON GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN , THIS IS WHAT A SALMON NATURALLY DOES.WHAT IS IT THAT A HORSE NATURALLY DOES AGAINST THE GRAIN,BUGGERED IF I KNOW, IF THERE IS A ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IM ALL EARS. |
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WALTER / BLACKCAT THERE YOU GO, AFTER ALL THAT JOHND HAS KNOW REVEALED THE FAIRLY SIMPLE EXPLANATION THAT HE SAID WAS THERE ALL ALONG, THAT IS IF YOU CAN KNOW UNDERSTAND THE SENTANCE IN FULL. IM BUGGERED IF I CAN |
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Well, now it seems we have a sentence and a distance, on which to concentrate.
I must admit I still don't get IT. |
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