Black Cat

Trust me, that was posted to educate, not to castigate or crow.
I could hardly have been more pointed as to why, but still you choose to draw your own conclusions.
A very similar story again today, (Whether you believe it or not is entirely your choice), but for very specific reasons, unlike the complete generalisation in your last sentence?

VDW is all about afterwards. That is why it does not work beforewards.

What did the Star no more beat at Cheltenham by a similiar distance and why should it have been a hotpot, what was in front of it does not matter as it does not show the level?

That is not rocket science and does not need pulling apart.

It bet sfa in a moderately run race and what is now more patently obvious than before it is prone to jumping errors. Sean (I think) spotted it pre race but decided to play.

Use the mirrors.

THANK YOU

VINCENT

quote:

Originally posted by paul:
BLAKCAT HI
Why is aintree not a course for ID, i know it has only picked up one race there, but from a prize money point of view it is in 3rd place behind cheltenham and newbury

Hi Paul,

I'm certainly no expert on race courses. My comment comes from listening to what the race commentators and trainers Alan King and Howard Johnson were saying on the TV, which is that Aintree is a fast course which doesn't play to his strengths - i.e. the stamina required to belt up the Cheltenham Hill. But it does look like they are correct. If you set his one win aside, which was against relatively nothing, (2nd was a class 3 horse who remained a class 3 horse), his next three visits have all followed Cheltenham success with and Aintree failure.

I agree with you about the double dutch. It does get like that down here in the dungeon. You get used to it after a while.

BC

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:
Black Cat

Trust me, that was posted to educate, not to castigate or crow.
I could hardly have been more pointed as to why, but still you choose to draw your own conclusions.
A very similar story again today, (Whether you believe it or not is entirely your choice), but for very specific reasons, unlike the complete generalisation in your last sentence?

Johnd

You probably don't know you're doing it, but I can see why Ectoo gets frustrated with you!!

1. Are you saying that Kauto Star would not have been a VDW-style selection yesterday?

2. And are you saying that Binocular was a stonewall certainty, whereas Celestial Halo could have been discounted?

Mtoto44 #1 [-]
(03/04/08 12:41 PM)



Aintree 1st day.

Inglis Drever will be the idea of a VDW horse for many. I'm not saying he can't win, but with his style of running I would be very worried about the course with this one. No hill to bring back the front runners when he does hit his flat spot.

Kauto Star, with this one its all about has he left the race at Cheltenham? This race looks ideal, course, distance fine. Big(ish) question marks against ALL the other runners, but has he recovered from the hardest race he has ever had? Like ID I couldn't consider backing him with the doubt at the price.

Celestial Halo/Binocular I can't split them on the figures. Both have shown they can act on flat speed course. The prices look to tight to make a book. Here I'm having a place bet on Pagan Starprincess in the hope of finding some value.

For what its worth I have copied a post sent to another forum, this is timed so there can be no issue about aftertiming. As JohnD hasn't put in writing his problems with BC's selections, whether or not his agree with mine here they are.

Right or wrong, I believe course configuration is one (if not the) most important aspects in finding winners, or missing losers, there is in British horse racing. Many spend hours looking at distances and/or going, and spend hours agonising over weight. VDW only touched on it but I think it played a major part in his form assessment. He even went as far as to say Kempton wouldn't suit a horse and that horse had never run there.

Be Lucky

as in the simpson book only back winners or in other ways

BC

I had already said KS wouldn't have been a VDW style selection, on here somewhere.
I am also saying that Celestial Halo wouldn't have been a VDW selection for much the same reason as Inglis Drever.(I agree broadly with Mtoto on ID). With Celestial Halo discounted - for no other reason than is clearly explained in that one sentence - then Binocular would clearly have been the bet.
Maybe it's me who should be comparing you to Ectoo?

For once, I completely agree with Mtoto's last paragraph, unlike your complete generalisation on the same subject.

quote:

Sean (I think) spotted it pre race but decided to play.

: Vincent.

Not quite like that, V; I NEVER back P Nicholls' animals bc I hate the stable. Yes, that is a bigoted and silly attitude, but it is my honest feeling.
Obviously, the first thing a man should do when trying to bet successfully is rid himself of these emotional hang-ups, but, just as many back for or against soccer teams on purely prejudiced feeling, I admit my flaw and look for alternatives. A question of TEMPERAMENT ( vdw term) i would imagine.
However, you are right to say that I regard this KS as a poor jumper. Pity he's not a 2m flat horse, imo.

OK that's the bigotry out of the way.

Now a few quick points - and believe me - the aim is to help not slag.

Yes, Mtoto is correct to stress the importance of course configuration, imo.
Cheltenham like Epsom is unique.
Animals trained for big races at these venues don't often shine elsewhere, especially in the period closely following their TARGET RACES.

This ties in well with the views of JIB, who has studied the way trainers place their animals with a view to winning the target race.
I think he's gone to Guyana, so I don't suppose he'll be writing in for a bit.

Anyway, it's time for me to polish up my betting boots, ready for Aintree tomorrow. I'll need a couple of mirrors too, for to see which way the pickpockets went!

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:

Maybe it's me who should be comparing you to Ectoo?

Fair dig.

But I wish I had his racing knowledge and insight!

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:

unlike your complete generalisation on the same subject.

Also fair.

But why don't you just say what the simple sentence is? The VDW games go on and on, and none of us are getting any younger or, sadly, any healthier!! I am 100% behind the VDW pamphlets, despite the identity revelations. But these hints to poor and needy are getting boring now. I just can't be doing with it. Life is too short. It REALLY is!!

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:

Right or wrong, I believe course configuration is one (if not the) most important aspects in finding winners, or missing losers, there is in British horse racing. Many spend hours looking at distances and/or going, and spend hours agonising over weight. VDW only touched on it but I think it played a major part in his form assessment. He even went as far as to say Kempton wouldn't suit a horse and that horse had never run there.

That is interesting. Thanks for that Mtoto. I've been meaning to look into this aspect of horse-racing, but just haven't been sure how much importance it held. Is there a specific book you might recommend?

Sean,

I'm back from Guyana, which was most enjoyable!

As regards Kauto Star my comment is that if Denman had made a bollocks of the last at Cheltenham and Kauto Star had won he would certainly have been nowhere near Aintree on Thursday.

Top class races have to be targetted. That involves extensive preparation so that on the day everything works perfectly. Presumably Kauto Star had been prepared for Cheltenham where he put in his best efforts, how three weeks later can he be considered at his peak for another top class contest?

As for tomorrow I have no big bets.

John Terry 245L looks to have the beating of his opponents and certainly deserves something after his last two runs. If I can get 7/2 I'll have a wee bet.

The National is a race where the trends are v strong, the ones I use have given me the last two winners and tomorrow they isolate D'Argent and Black Apalachi.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by BlackCat:

But why don't you just say what the simple sentence is? The VDW games go on and on, and none of us are getting any younger or, sadly, any healthier!! I am 100% behind the VDW pamphlets, despite the identity revelations. But these hints to poor and needy are getting boring now. I just can't be doing with it. Life is too short. It REALLY is!!
[QUOTE]

Jesus Holy Christ, Black Cat.
I thought anyone who had done any serious reading of VDW would know which sentence I was referring to.
The one from SIAO that he often referred back to beginning: To confirm what the figures say, it is necessary to study the form of all concerned.......................
Try it against your Thursday good things and you might make some headway?


JHC, you are Ectoo.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

VDW wrote a lot of sentences Johnd. My copies of the pamphlets have many of them underlined or starred.

Sadly, my psychic powers extend no more than 10 metres, and don't work at all over the internet.

I should have added "thanks" - for spelling it out!!

lol Walt how you doing these days?

215 Aintree - Tidal Bay

Just chillin Rab, whats aw the good things the day, you still doin the damage wi the stats?.

That is a cracker WP.

Not many good things going today Walt,Hope to get cash from Kruguyrova but just a small interest,
Stats going well at times and very bad other times,Mostly the short priced ones letting me down

Grand National

A severe test all round, VDW methodology included :twisted:
Stars
4 Cloudy Lane, best chance if jumping and staying, D?
3 Comply Or Die, impressive jumper and a contender WON 7/1
3 Butlers Cabin, improver but recent form a concern?
2 Simon, makes jumping mistakes? D?
2 Snowy Morning, was initial Fav but will need to jump better, D? 3rd 16/1
2 Knowhere, can make jumping mistakes? D?
1 Slim Pickings, 3rd last year so not out of it. 4th 10/1
1 Bewleys Berry, can jump round Aintree, D?
1 Mr Pointment, flopped 5 weeks ago? D?
1 Turko, improver on a reasonable mark, D?
1 No Full, on a tough mark today? D?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,