So are these boys using two different methods one the vdw method the other a handicap (OR) type or are they both using ability ratings?.

what do you use to weigh up a race wattie, the ability rating must have been very long winded in the past and for someone who was unwell and out of the country a lot .cant see vdw do that himself think you would need to keep on top of things you can spot OR ratings out of sinc a lot easier so wattie ,ability ratings or OR

Cant make my mind up that`s why im confused,i remember Barney stating that OR`S were rubbish.

vdw could also have used the betting a loud shot running well against favs and 2nd favs ie olga lillian? then wait till its fav . if the fav has ran well which horse with a poorish OR,ability rating or price has ran within 5 lengths? dont know having a guess

when you think on it the fav is the best mark to use never thought out my results that way.but what happens when the fav bombs do you use the 2nd fav?

Les

VDW didn't use ability ratings in the Roushayd example, though some of his followers later worked them in to try and make their understanding fit.
He wouldn't have used OR's either, as they weren't available for many of the races he discussed.
Having said all that, the value of a race is generally a much better guide to the class of the race than OR is, and races like the Ebor and the Cambridgeshire are far more likely to entertain potential stars than similar grade handicaps run for a fraction of the money.

which leaves the betting horses which run well against front 1 or 2 in the betting.after all these were considered to have the best chance on the day .never thought along these lines before.if the trainer knows what he has he knows a good performance in defeat? i take this is were this goes

But Les

VDW Said

I can see no sense in an untoward accent on favourites, (sorry Methodmaker), for what on earth are they but horses generally favoured for a variety of vague and fluctuating reasons only a third of which win anyway?

IMP
Member

Posted April 01, 2008 12:01 PM Hide Post
quote:
Look out behind You!
?


cheers IMP

les henderson
Member
Posted April 01, 2008 12:02 PM Hide Post
whats going on behind?


.......................................................................

Boys, was thinking over this mirror thing again this morning now dont know about you guys but when im driving the Walt mobile the main reason i check my mirrors is to see what`s coming up to pass me from behind.Whatever rating you use, and i can see some merit in most,what about rating only those who have passed yours inside the distance or if the horse your looking at has won then the horse or horses he/she passed?.Question, is at the distance the final 2 furlongs or the final furlong?.

walter, I think it is neither -

I thought it was about the last 100 yards, which seems to be confirmed by this quote from -

Great Racehorses in Art By John Fairley

quote:

--- passed the finishing post before Norwich reached the distance pole, 100 yards back ---

I believe "the distance" is 10 yards before the furlong pole, i.e. 230 yds, though I can't see where tying things down to a specific distance would help anyone - Roushayd, for instance showed little in the last 2 furlongs of the Northern Dancer, and 230 yards at the end of a 3m chase is hardly going to count the same as at the end of a 5f sprint?

we think that vdw may have ment horses that are not so well rated? or weighted depending on what he used quickening up and passing better horses from a certain distance out? a bit like the lincoln winner but his run was stopped 2nd lto

Lads

The Distance is 240 yards from the winning post.
It comes from the old days of match racing where a distance judge was placed 240 yards from the finish.

JOHND
When you say value of race do you mean prize money or another form of value

LES
If a horse can quicken past better horses,were they really better horses in the first place.

Paul

Simply prize money.

Today's don't need a lot of finding!!

Inglis Drever
Kauto Star
Celestial Halo / Binocular

Aintree 3.10

Another G Hall key type race IMO. Just the basic methodology to 'narrow the field' with a look a the form of the star contenders, nothing clever:
Stars
5 Celestial Halo, Won 1 of 14 +2.25L LTO, led hard driven stayed on gamely. Beat Franchoek and a strong contender. 2nd 7/4
5 Binocular, 2 of 22 -2L LTO, challenged slight lead headed kept on well. Ran well in a fast race at Chel and a likely contender. WON 11/8
4 Star Of Angels, 5 of 14 -11L LTO, headway hard ridden kept on never in contention. 5th behind Celestial Halo and looks to have work cut out here?
2 Harper Valley. 3rd 7/1
2 First Buddy
1 Pagan Starprincess
1 Chord

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

had a think about the quickening up or passing horses at the distance if you put a value on it ,you dont the horse did it or it did,nt ,it just becomes part of the assesment as a whole

come on you Gers, dont lose a goal at home.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,