Thanks, Jack.

Art Modern ( trainer and owner) last; Maslak first.

I left two very small bets on offer on btfr: the loser was snapped up; the winner didn't get matched!

Don't think this was a proper vdw type race in any case, but my bet on Art Modern was a bit silly, seeing as the thing had been off the track for yonks. This will win at a nice price, eventually.

The winner I had picked on speed and strike rate.

Top-class race to day is on the AW, so just the bare bones but I did take over an hour assessing it.

Wolverhampton 5.05 Feb 29
Stars
5 Milville (fair odds would be 5/1)WON 5/2
4 Cold Turkey (fair odds 5/1)
4 Grande Caiman (fair odds 11/2)
4 Kames Park (faid odds 8/1)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

I have avoided the very big races today and opted for this Nov Hdl but after an hours work decided it's not a seriuos betting race. Various doubts and imponderables put me off even though it could be considered a G Hall 'key' race.

Kelso 4.15 Mar 1
Stars
4 Pagan Starprincess, 2 of 7 held-up headway strong challenge stayed on always held LTO. Tryer gets all the allowances as filly versus geldings? My calculated fair odds 9/2.
3 Ignotus, DSQ1 of 15 tracked led stayed on strongly LTO. Promising. Fair odds 5/1 WON 10/3
3 Osaka D'Airy, 5 of 6 led mistakes headed ridden weakened LTO. Easier race than of late today. Fair odds 13/2
3 Scriptwriter, 3 of 19 headway went 2nd no impression blundered LTO. Progressive looks open to improvement. Fair odds 15/2

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A class 3 nov hcap chse and a G Hall 'key' race IMO that looks very open on paper.

Market Rasen 4.40 Mar 2
Stars
5 Hold The Bid, 3 of 8 tracked ridden headway one pace LTO. Up to his best last time. (my fair odds 85/40) WON 4/1
4 Glingerbank, 5 of 10 headway hit 8 & 12 moderate progress LTO. Jumping needs to improve. Too much weight today? (fair odds 9/1)
4 Tycoon Hall, 5 of 10 ridden headed weakened LTO. Others too good (fair odds 12/1)
3 Ashwell, 4 of 8 held up mistakes ridden weakened LTO. Limitations are exposed (fair odds 4/1)
3 Divex, 2 of 7 chased led stayed on one pace LTO. Could be thereabouts in this field (fair odds 11/2)
2 Autograph, mare versus geldings? (20/1)
1 Finland (12/1)
0 Aitch Doubleyou, 40/1

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Monday again, and a struggle - just to get out of bed never mind assessing races. To be honest I can't find anything worthwhile so it should be left alone, however, my lousy temperament won't let me do that. So we are on the polytrack, a class 5 all-aged hcap over 7f where they have all done it many times. Not skimped, I have given it my best and an hour of my time, at least it will put my version of the methodology to test:

Lingfield 3.40 Mar 3
Stars
5 Dvinsky, 1 of 11 chased closed led battled LTO. A slight concern over the D? (My fair odds 7/2)
5 Count Ceprano, 3 of 7 headway ridden stayed on well not pace of leaders LTO. Could be a contender. (15/2)
4 Desert Dreamer, C&D2 2 of 6 held up led ran on worn down LTO. Fully exposed (9/2) WON 9/2
4 Royal Envoy, 3 of 11 held up ridden good progress LTO. Has some chance (9/1)
4 Paradise Dancer, 2 of 5 led hard pressed headed no extra LTO. Needs more today, filly versus geldings? (14/1)
3 Scarlet Flyer, (11/1)
3 Gimme Some Lovin, filly versus geldings? (18/1)
2 Millfield, C&D (11/2)
1 Smokin Joe, C&D (60/1)

Just had a thought - The draw. Cloth Nos 1 - 6 that would be my order of priority, but not critical

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Southwell 4.40 Mar 4
stars
5 Music Note, 2 of 5 led quickened headed no extra LTO. Concern is no wins for 2 years? (my fair odds 3/1)
4 Denbera Dancer, C&D 1of 7 led headed chased ridden to lead ran on well LTO. Progressive open to improvement (10/3)
4 Wessex, C&D 9 of 9 rear outpaced. Not out of it (13/2)
3 Louisiade, C&D 3 of 8 chased soon driven one pace LTO. Has some chance. (9/2)
3 Silver Hotspur, 3 of 6 headway challenged soon ridden one pace LTO. May be better over shorter D? (9/2)WON 6/1
2 Stevie Gee, 66/1

Calling it a day after this posting as it's probably too simplistic for ardent VDW enthusiasts.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

you,ll still post jack on other subjects to do with vdw

quote:

Originally posted by les henderson:
you,ll still post jack on other subjects to do with vdw

Hi Les,
I saw that you have been ill, so I hope that you have recovered and are feeling better now.
As to joining in with VDW debates I don't believe I have anything more to offer than what has been gone over time and time again really.

would you recomend to people, to stick to your form of vdw,you have a good strike rate

quote:

Originally posted by les henderson:
would you recomend to people, to stick to your form of vdw,you have a good strike rate

#

The only observation I would make is that the main criterion of the basic methodology was consistencey and everything stems from that. We are talking GOOD consistency pointing to a high percentage of winning form and not beyond the past 6 races of any horse.

I have a note from Mar 3, 1980 - Relying on ratings

Take the top 5/6 rated in hcaps, or 4 in non-hcaps, coupled with the 5/6 most consistent horses in the field.

Re the above, you would be hard put to to find 2 GOOD consistent runners in any race today

Jack

"The only observation I would make is that the main criterion of the basic methodology was consistencey and everything stems from that".

Not sure I understand your approach, but you obviously know your onions. Agree with the above statement, absolutely and completely.

johnd

You say I appear to know my onions with regard to VDW but didn't understand my approach. The fact is I just employ the basic methodology to 'narrow the field' by making a 'platform' to check the data. In the final event where I diverge is that I have to calculate a price to trade at as I can't be operating in a market blind or I am open to be taken to the cleaners.

Take the best class race on offer today Lingfield 3.35. Factors starred are the first 6 in the RP betting forecast, top 3 prize money/wins, top 3 consistency, top 3 RPR, top 3 D Mail Formcast. To qualify for consideration runners must be starred for the first 3 factors and be confirmed by being starred by both ratings compilers:

1 17/2_X_X_0_X_X
2 4/1__X_X_X_X_X Zorro, won 1 of 10 by 12L at Nby over 21f LTO. Headway led driven clear readily. Promising and more to give if handling the G. 7lb penalty but 7lb claimer up negates the increase.

3 18/1_0_0_0_X_X
4 25/1_X_X_X_0_X
5 6/1__0_0_0_X_0
6 13/2_X_0_X_0_0
7 15/2_X_X_0_X_X
8 500/1_0_0_0_0_0
9 11/2 _X_0_0_0_0
10 18/1 _0_0_0_0_0

Opinion. The fair odds shown (no advantage) were calculated from the Massey ratings for the race as I only alloted stars in this case. The only qualifier is Zorro and it appears there will be no advantage at the odds available, so another assessment to no avail except for the practise :wink:

Nice one Jack.
With the favourite withdrawn, your approach highlighted 1st, 2nd & 5th from 3 horses. More power to your elbow.

This is interesting and useful, Jack.

I can see the sense in your approach. In fact, I was going to have just one bet today ( Friday), but, even though I took some prices about my selection last night, I thought I'd run the race through your check-list.

OK, for a start, my bet isn't in a correct vdw-type race, but, using your methods (which are similar to the ones I used when attempting vdw -type selecting)
my eyes were opened to a serious contender that I had overlooked!

Again, I'm not strictly in line with correct procedure as I don't have access to the Mail ratings, but here is a brief summary:

9.20 Wolver ( friday, March 7.)

My original selection = DISTANT SUN

but, after the checks, I make
BEL CANTOR
the better bet.

This is how I ranked the best from the top six in the betting forecast:

1 Bel Cantor
2 Distant Sun
3 Financial Times.

Last night, I didn't even consider Bel Cantor, so it will be interesting to see how these go.

Btw, thanks to everyone for their help!

sean rua, johnd

In a spirit of helpfulness here is my take on the Wolverhampton 9.20, which looks tight.

Wolverhampton 9.20 Mar 7

1 9/2 (13/2)_X_?_X_X_X Distant Sun, C&D won 1 of 9 held-up ridden ran on to lead LTO. Strong finisher if getting there and possible at this track.
2 15/2 (9/1)_0_0_0_X_X
3 9/2 (5/1) _X_0_X_X_X
4 16/1 (9/1) _X_0_X_X_X
5 16/1 (13/2)_X_X_0_X_X
6 16/1 (9/1)_0_0_0_X_X
7 15/2 (9/1)_X_X_0_X_X
8 33/1 (28/1)_0_0_X_0_0
9 9/2 (13/2) _X_X_X_X_X Bel Cantor, C&D 3of 6 led ridden headed no extra LTO. Made all over C&D last month but may not have the speed today.

Opinion: Bel Cantor is the sole 5* qualifier as Distant Sun is down on £Class ? (I cheated and checked Pattern Form and by their data he does qualify). Benllech is another down on £class whilst Cornus lacks Consistency. RPR and D Mail Formcast indicate everything in with a chance except Memphis Man.

No Massey ratings available in the evening of course so the ˜fair' odds alongside the cloth no were calculated from RPR. In comparison in brackets are the ˜fair' odds calculated from the Formcast ratings (which just goes to show why I compile my own ratings, and incidentally why VDW indicated ratings are only a guide and not the ˜be all and end all').

Thank you very much for that, Jack!

The reason I didn't consider BC last night was because of poor speed figures and you've confirmed that weakness.

I don't think DS will befar away either.

We'll see.

Good example of people working together.

Result:

Wolverhampton 9.20 Full Result

1st 4 Financial Times (USA) 6-1
2nd 3 Benllech 4-1
3rd 1 Distant Sun (USA) 5-1


Winning Trainer Stef Liddiard
Winning Jockey M Fenton
Distances 3/4l, 1l
Unpl. Fav Bel Cantor 3-1 fav
Runners 9 ran






Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP
1 8 Financial Times (USA) 9-1 M Fenton Stef Liddiard 6 6/1
held up, headway on inside well over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on opened 10/1 touched 5/1
2 1 ¾ Benllech 9-3 S Whitworth M Wigham 4 4/1
held up in rear, headway on inside over 2f out, switched right entering straight, ridden and strong challenge entering final furlong, not pace of winner towards finish opened 3/1
3 7 1 Distant Sun (USA) 9-4 P Makin Miss L A Perratt 4 5/1
held up, headway over 1f out, not clear run and switched right inside final furlong, ran on well towards finish opened 3/1
4 5 ¾ Misaro (GER) 8-13 K Ghunowa (5) R Harris 7 12/1
soon led, ridden over 1f out, edged left and headed entering final furlong, no extra opened 10/1 touched 14/1
5 2 nk Yungaburra (IRE) 9-4 D Nolan (3) S Parr 4 16/1
broke sharply, soon headed, chased leaders, ridden and close up entering final furlong, no extra towards finish opened 20/1
6 3 nk Bel Cantor 8-7 A Mullen (3) W J H Ratcliffe 5 3/1 f
chased leader until ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong opened 9/2 touched 5/1

Sandown 4.35 Mar 8 - a stroll in the park, or is it?

We have a class talking horse Takeroc imported from France into the Nichols yard, 4 runners but interesting.

Stars
5 Gentle Jim, won 1 of 5 led clear easily LTO. Improver but can make jumping errors and tougher task today. (Massey fair odds 1/3)
5 Etoile Russe, 2 of 4 blundered tired headed soon beaten LTO. Stiff task after 134 days off track? (Massey fair odds 10/3)
3 Wogan, 4 of 6 chased blundered weakened LTO. Has not done well fencing to date. (Massey fair odds 150/1)
3 Takeroc, won 1 of 12 last time out in France. Way ahead on prize class but is that enough with the Nicholls/Walsh combo to justify short odds here? (Massey - not rated) WON 10/11

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Cheltenham 3.15 Mar 11
Stars
5 Sublimity, last years winner will need to be at his best
5 Osana, improver so bold show possible
4 Sizing Europe, improver and strong form contender
4 Harchibald, has ability that will take some beating