My guess would be

Highfield Harvest.

Decent speed figures lto.

Epidaurian King would be my second choice.

Chepstow 2.20 Feb 14 a novice chase so not ideal for the methodology but I am saving the 3.25 race for my own assessment
Stars
5 Ma Yahab, headwaykept on same pace LTO, improver that should take some beating WON 5/4
5 Michael Muck, weakened tailed off LTO but OK C&D penultimate race
5 Stolen Moments, blundered challenged no extra LTO, blikers reinstated
2 Coolevanny Lad
1 Freeline Fury
1 Delaneys triumph

For me it has to be Ma Yahab but connections of Michael Muck must be hopeful after a 2 month break off track.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

A 3yo handicap at this time of year on the AW I must have a death wish

Lingfield 3.55 Feb 15
Stars
5 (4?) Benllech, chased closed struck on nose LTO. C&D3 has to go close. WON 15/8
5 Mogok Ruby, no impression LTO, improver that could recover form
4 Westport, has been expensive to follow
4 Angel Voices, not discounted
3 Lord Of The Reins, progressive and could be thereabouts
3 Chjimes, one career win

My selection Benllech does not get a star for class by prize but does if you employ time as the class criteria.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

Well done with those winners, Jack!

sean rua,

Thank you, I didn't think anyone had noticed . Tried to go for something a little less obvious than the hyped up races today but I don't think it has worked out as the price will still be too short for a bet IMO:

Wincanton 3.40 Feb 16
Stars
5 Katchit, headway chased no impression on leader but looks easier today WON 4/5
4 Amaretto Rose, held up good progress ridden one pace. Goes well fresh but 340 days off track?
4 Blythe Knight, in touch soon ridden weakened but may figure here
2 Alph
2 Lemon Silk
1 Osaka D'Airy

Selection Katchit has the class to pull him through surely although almost certainly odds-on SP.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

well done jack,can i guess what five filters your using.ability,consistencey,lto value of race,lto rpr,lto top speed am i right you certainly have it sussed and will follow your example by having a go myself if its ok with you

Jack - welcome as a new member.

You certainly appear to have the VDW basics as a good foundation for your selections.

Trouble with VDW , is that everyone else is using the same criteria, so SPs tend to be of little value.

VDW spent little (TIME) on speed figures, - but as in all apects of Racing , in any form - atheletics swimming - etc - they are the whole basis on which potential can be evaluated.

Why on earth should Horse Racing be different ???

Given the same conditions as LTO - horses perform to within 90% of their previous run.

Speed figs , are my starting point. !


tc

TUPPENYCAT HI
May i ask, when you say a horses perform to within 90% of its previous run given the same conditions as it las run ,what would those conditions be.

Yes I'm interested in this too.

I suppose the conditions TC means are going, distance, type of race, but i'm sure he'll tell us later.

A major proiblem here is that it is difficult to know what going a horse actually ran on! If we take Ascot, there was a fierce hullaballoo a few weeks back when an outsider made all and won, and, again, yesterday, when they thought KS might have hurt his fetlock, dickheads on the buttfair forum were calling for Ascot to be tarmac'd over and the like!

Another imponderable I find is " trouble in running". As afollower of the AW, I'm well used to seeing this happen. It seems to be hard to legislate against, imo. Many's the day my " top speed shot" doesn't even place, while some thing with a rating of 28 flies in.

Anyway, as ever, i shall be interested to hear what the experts think.

les, Tuppeny Cat,

In my first post on page 11 of this thread I did state the 5 filters employed as the basic methodology to narrow the field, as follows:

VDW Methodology

I am not what you could call a VDW fanatic but I was a punter of 28 years standing before he arrived on the scene in 1978, and I have read all of his SCHB correspondence over the years. There is a race today that G Hall would probably see as a 'key' race so I have put it through the basic VDW methodology to narrow the field and create a platform. Starred out of 5 factors - 1st six in the RPR betting forecast, £Class, consistency, RPR, D Mail Formcast:

My thoughts on VDW may be found on my homepage, if you are interested
http://hometown.aol.co.uk/jackform/info.html

I do employ the basic methodoly according to my own interperetation, which many would not agree with:

"Just a synopsis of the elements selected as it has all appeared earlier.


Consistent form
The first 5/6 in a reliable betting forecast
Class by prize money won
Two sets of ratings to confirm evaluation


This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but in fact it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done in methodically. taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is: -


1. Select the most valuable race on the card.
2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire fields for ability.
5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the forecast.
6. Apply second rating (evaluation) method to entire fields."


Jack: I would have liked a serial 7. added to the above.
7. Add two handicap ratings of your choice to compare and confirm the assessment.

Re 4 above - I substitute or include speed figures for the ability rating where there is a lack of prize money to rate.

Re 6 above - (IMO this indicates rating as evaluation and not ratings such as RPR) For this I employ:

VDW 8 (part 2) Another Way to Reduce the Field


This is the 2nd part of the letter/article published in Sports Forum August 23, 1979.


Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method I gave, is as follows. The combination of the 2 usually indicates the probables. Again I suggest the better class races but illustrate using a scrubber to show potential.
A star has been used to indicate selections at each stage. The previous method I gave isolates Secret Express, Easter Girl, The Old Fellow giving 4 out of the 16 with probability. Most people will be aware of the statistics regarding horses placed 1, 2, 3, 4 last time out and here a variation is used for the first stage of the mechanical procedure.
Stage 1. From the last 2 finishing places of each horse mark all those with form figures 1 to 4 (note as in the race illustrated none had a 2nd place so mark those with a 5th place).
Stage 2. Select in days, the 5 most recent runs. In this case 3, 7, 9, 10, 11 days.
Stage 3. Select from the above the 3 most consistent by adding together the last 3 finishing places of the respective horses. Reading through the form there can be little doubt that The Old Fellow represents a reasonable wager if you care to bet in scrubber races.


Newmarket, Aug 4, Cobnut Selling Handicap 3yo, 16 runners.


Stage1..................................2......3.....................Ratings
766....Tucson.................... 28
2R14*..Secret Express........3*....7*.................32.....84
58-0.....What A Treasure..110
305*....Easter Girl................9*..18..................29....84
0-74*...Laki lady.................68
275*....Mohock....................7*..14*2nd 15/2.35....85
40-9.....Carol Seymour........61
0-35*..Hosts Delight..........11*..18.................28....89
0L0.......Sky Grove..............61
044*.....Game Sheila............7*...18.................29....89
093*....Baby Flo..................10*..32................18....75
08L......Blue Paper...............64
781*...The Old Fellow.........10*..16*W12/1.....40...91
084*...Royal Inheritance......25....22................(40).(99)
064*...Desert Prince.............18...20..3rd.16/1...31...89
660.....The Mo......................19


It is interesting to speculate by what criterion weight of money could force Royal Inheritance to a 5/2 favourite from a forecast of 10/1. Ratings alone? If readers care to subject the next race on the card (won by Soaf) to the same 2 methods the point arises again. By what criterion could Another Signcentre be not only forecast favourite but actual 2/1 favourite? The Combination of both methods isolates Soaf, Dalkoku, Rubber Duck and Art Bidder. As will be noticed the first 3 places were filled from these 4.
Jacknote: This is an important letter. It establishes that when he was talking about 2 rating methods in the first letters he actually meant 2 assessment methods and not handicap rating figures. The handicap ratings above are only used to indicate the false favourite Royal Inheritance and are NOT part of the assessment. So now we have the 2 assessment methods to use together to narrow the field. Namely, the 3 most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting forecast and the one detailed above. Note in this case the first method gave Secret Express, Easter Girl, The Old Fellow and the second method above added Mohock to them, giving 4 probables. Somehow in future handicap rating figures became part of the assessment but that is not the case as described in the letters to date. The same applies to class by prize money that again was added in the future.

I Trust the above satisfies those interested in how I conduct my basic methodology appraisal, mind you after that you have to consider the form "subject to other considerations"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

jack your the man for sticking to this method all this time what is your thoughts of of this method read your posts on the racing forum is it just somthing to play with or what

JACK HI
Well done Jack with your winners.

May i ask what is RPR BETTING FORECAST, sorry for being thick

paul

I suggest - Class,Weight,Dist,Going,Course,days since LTO.

They probably sumarise what VDW refered to as "Capability"

-

Up in Class , Weight and Distance - is a recipe for disaster.


tc

les,

The basic methodology has worked well over the years just used to narrow the field to provide a short list for further investigation. Where it doesn't suit my temperament is that it severely restricts the races that can be considered, although many punters might feel that is a plus.

Paul,

RPR was a typing error, it should read RP (the online Racing Post betting forecast). My apologies for that

Put this down to practise owing to it being a class 6 selling stakes on the AW.
Lingfield 1.55 Feb 18
Stars
5 Northern Desert, headway ridden weakened LTO but obvious chance on antipenultimate race form
5 Arctic Desert, headway ridden no extra LTO, contender in this grade and has beaten Northern desert twice
5 Blue Quiver, ridden headway not quicken LTO, C&D but a bit to find on OR
2 Trees Of Green
2 Naughty Thoughts
2 Tapas Lad
2 Sendrini
0 Doctor Ned
0 Kazakstan
0 Stratn Jack

I have struggled to come to a decision, which indicates it is a race to leave alone. However, elsewhere I have proposed Blue Quiver at the odds but in line with VDW pracice I suggest a punters book with 1 point on each of the top 3, which is a cop-out on my part

We have a G Hall 'key' race today, which makes a change.

Huntingdon 3.25 Feb 21
Stars
5 Lightning Strike, effort led stayed on well penultimate race. Needs best ever at the weights.
4 Hold Em, quickened challenged edged right always held LTO. Improver that should go well. WON 7/4
4 Middleton Dene,headway quickened stayed on strongly LTO. Up in class after 4 months off track?
2 Crocodiles Rock
2 Theatre Dance
2 Junior
1 Kingscape (Fanshawe/Fitzgerald top combo here)
1 Ogee
0 Matuhi
0 Tickers Way

Pundits and the market indicate Hold Em is home and hosed.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jack,

What do you mean by a G Hall key race?

Maggsy1,

I feel certain you will know of the intrigue caused by the letter from G Hall, lincoln, to the SCHB Sports Forum dated Jan 11, 1979:

"Towards the end of the last NH season reader VDW gave us his system. I burnt considerable midnight oil checking through past results and concluded that there was something to get my teeth into.
My first bet was the Lincoln winner, but then things started to go wrong. Fortunately, VDW elaborated following comments by Methodmaker (April 20 78) and after burning more midnight oil, I spotted the 'key', which was plainly there to see. I followed the system throughout the rest of the season and have finished the period with a tidy bank, even after taking out the cost of a family holiday to Malta."

VDW responded to the above in SCHB dated March 8, 79:

" In reply to G Hall can I first say it was a method no a system, a point as I recall that was stressed. However, I congratulate him on 'spotting the key' as he describes it."

What can I say? Find the VDW correspondence between the above dates and the 'key' is plainly there to see

quote:

What can I say? Find the VDW correspondence between the above dates and the 'key' is plainly there to see

http://youtube.com/watch?v=-_lVFbyGn1Q&feature=related

No need to go to extremes seeking the correspondence you can find a link to it on my homepage. The address was posted earlier on this thread.

You may ask why don't I just 'spell it all out'? The reason is that I had 30 years worth of handicap books starting in 1973 with all the VDW correspondence and much more. My wife was keen for me to get rid of them, so I gave them to a pro-backer I used to help with form analysis. Later I heard he was selling photocopies at £50 a sheet, which just goes to show I have no commercial acumen at all. Nevertheless, I was a bit miffed and resolved to keep my methods more or less to myself in future.

I do have some do-eared copies of the early VDW corresepondence relating to Maggsy1's queryand would be quite happy to scan it and send it to anyone interested - for free!