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2:50 Ling - Dance Partner (evens with Spods & just under with BF)

...and class of race aside:

3:40 Taun - Hehasalife (BF 4.7) with a cover on Galtee View (BF 4.9)

Fingers crossed...

BlackCat

Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase, Class A Grade 3, 2 Miles 4 Vz Furlongs £100,000

A big welcome to you all, this is one of our favourite races of the whole year, and our recent successes clearly indicate we have an intimate knowledge of the type of horse that wins this, or at least is capable of winning this.
Ideally, you want a second season chaser (a novice from last year), with consistent novice chase form at the highest level, consistent and trained by Martin Pipe. Additionally, the horse should be at the bottom end of the weights and of a profile signalling: PROGRESSIVE.
Very few horses ever meet that profile because it calls for trainers recognising last year the potential for this year. In other words, if a horse is showing too much in a season the handicapper clobbers a horse.
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Trainers win or lose races for all their horses in their placing, some are useless others brilliant.
For example, take 6 horses rated 125 now and just see how much prize money they have won. The difference is frankly shocking and illustrates how important cherry picking of horses engagements is.
Also, notice how often journalists state "how well handicapped a horse is," yet they never say that before it wins.
No horse is ever well handicapped because no one knows the true ability of a horse.
Consequently, with the current system of jumps handicapping, horses with big race targets have to be protected. By this we mean that trainers have to be able to recognise future talent at home, and only then allow that talent to be seen in small doses on the track in suitable races.
Nowadays, a trainer knows, an ordinary horse could carry 10 Ibs more weight for winning a modest prep race. That prep race is often vital preparation for a future valuable target race; however, the handicapper also sees that and reacts accordingly.
As interested observers, we see the changes, yet most punters don't. So to assist you read the following.
Many trainers such as Lennie Lungo, Paul Nicholls, Phillip Hobbs, Martin Pipe to name but a few, now protect their future chasers by regularly switching them to hurdles.
At the same time, "progressive horses" are regularly placed into open handicap chases without first of all having any racecourse novice chase form.
At all times you should ask yourself why they do this and then look at the horses they do it with.
Handicapper's handicap horses differently over hurdles to fences and trainers know this.
Certain Trainers are taking advantage of this approach with regularity. So to The Paddy Power...
Ollie Magern looks a most unlikely runner, leaving last year's winner Celestial Gold as 11-12 Ibs top weight.
That weight could still allow Celestial Gold to win, but we believe he will remain in the race to assist the chance of the same owners Our Vie. Our Vie is on all pundits' lists and gobs at present. Obviously everyone knows the horse is well handicapped but F.P.P. is not an acronym for a jumper who can jump. Make no mistake as a 7 year old the horse has time on his side and clearly has ability and Pipey retains faith in his charge - he would wouldn't he? He has won 5 of his 10 races.
Our Vie won his first 3 races fair enough, and then in December 2003, contested a Pipe race, called The William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, where he finished second. Asked to carry 11-12 Ibs, he was beaten by Overstrand, receiving 20 Ibs.
Back in third, also receiving weight - 4 Ibs - was Monkerhostin.
In the end the weight beat Our Vie, so he was immediately sent over fences, the first an easy race at Exeter, followed by Ascots Reynoldstown Chase.
Stepping up in distance to 3 miles, he beat others effortlessly. That proved he could jump and do so well.
Of course Cheltenham beckoned, with The Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Chase. He was beaten at a ridiculous 11/8, because he was outstayed.
He did not reappear for nearly 18 months until last years Bonusprint.
Predictably made 11/4 favourite, he was 1 Vz lengths up approaching the last and fell. Now the winner there was none other than Monkerhostin receiving a stone. The horse had been beaten 6 % lengths into third behind Celestial Gold in this race, so of course Our Vie was unlucky and Monkerhostin lucky?
We prefer not to voice our opinion because Monkerhostin has been clearly looked after since then.
"Surprisingly" he (Monkerhostin) won The Haldon Cup last week on merit, recording career best figures in the process. He has an ability rating of 2054, whereas Our Vie has one of 786... enough said.
Richard Johnson has chosen Monkerhostin for Saturday ahead of Lacdoudal because connections know to win The Haldon at 10/1 over a stiff 2 miles when not 100% only means one thing ... the horse will improve.
However, in receipt of nearly a stone from novices Kauto Star and favourite Ashley Brook, we have 2 questions; did Monkerhostin improve markedly or did the former pair not show their true ability.
The answer we believe is a bit of both, leaving us with the view that Monkerhostin in the circumstances ran a sound race, though not one one could get carried away/with.
The test the horse faces on Saturday will be different. Up in distance, weight and
class of course, he will face a far sterner test on Saturday.
Whilst the horse is favourite, that is not a true reflection on his ability but of the
ability of the trainer and jockey.
Obviously the horse is a serious contender for this race, as I am for the Mr
Universe Title in 2006, but only I know that, whereas Monkerhostin doesn't.

Monkerhostin is vulnerable to a more progressive animal with a bit of toe, because even though the horse is good he does not possess real toe.
Moreover, because now Our Vie is actually receiving weight to the horse compared to his mishap when they met over C&D last December, everyone believes relative to Monkerhostin, Our Vie is well in.
That's like saying, because Bristol City once beat Liverpool, they could and should have won The Champion League... which of course they have ... not!
That was then, this is now. Both horses are vulnerable to a progressive horse. Period! Yesterday was Pipe's open day when journalists and others of a nature similar to journalists "had their free lunch." Predictably Our Vie is now headlines in the paper with bookies reporting loads of money... give me the money, as Our Vie still has to prove plenty, even if you disagree.
The least exposed and most progressive horse in the race is Monkerhostin's stable mate Lacdoudal.
Still only 6, this early maturing French import has an ability rating of 1370. Interestingly the owner is the same owner by marriage to the owner of the brilliant but ill-fated mare La Landiere.
If Lacdoudal inherits any of the ability of his illusions equine friend, look out. La Landierre will forever and a day go down as one of the greatest racing bets we have ever given, and she won enough races!
Anyway, Lacdoudal only really started his fencing last year at Wincanton behind Patches. He had run several okayish kinds of races beforehand but it was only last December that he got the message.
That was a decent novice chase race. Clearly because the experience taught Lacdoudal plenty; as from there he went and won under Paddy Brennan by a distance at Doncaster over 2 Miles 3 Furlongs.
Immediately thereafter the horse found himself up against experienced handicappers in a valuable class B race at Kempton.
He carried 11-4 Ibs there, beating Run for Paddy and Liberthine, the latter
receiving 8 Ibs and re-opposes again on Saturday.
The figures at Kempton were good, but nowt compared to his next run.
Timeform Novice Handicap Chase, the same race La Landiere won the year before. There Lacoudal gave Joe Edge a wham. (Joes Edge subsequently won The Scottish Grand National.) Back in third was the enigmatic Cornish Rebel. Next came The Scilly Isles at Sandown and The Kempton Pendil Novice Chase, whilst the horse was beaten on both occasions, the horse improved in defeat.

For example, in the Kempton race, he tried vainly to give 3 Ibs and 7 Ibs to Duncliffe and Limerick Boy, which might seem harsh but in reality it is a meritous performance.
So come The 2004 Festival he ran an absolutely blinder; vainly unable to concede 20 Ibs to King Harold. He travelled like a dream at Cheltenham and was swift over his fences, he did not deserve to lose but in the end the weight did him, but the time gave me what I needed. First time out this season Hobbs got him ready for a Listed Hurdle race at Chepstow worth £26K.
Carrying 10-6 Ibs, Lacoudal was on holiday but ground out a narrow victory, and in the process confirmed the promise for the season ahead.
Paul Nicholls has an army entered the best of which will be Thisthatantother, Kauto Star, My Will and Armaturk, if you read his Saturday newspaper column. The first named only gets us, and whilst we respect him, we believe he is vulnerable to a very fast run race, especially from a low weighted front runner, such as Lacoudal.
A whole host of Irish horses are entered including Always. He's won 2 but what to make of them. We don't know. Euro Leader from the Willie Mullins stable is an exciting horse, when Ruby Walsh rides, and his ability rating of 1731, illustrates he needs respect. However, the horse is a 2 Vz miler, who dislikes testing ground. Trouble is he's not in the betting, should he travel take note.
The stable companion of Always is Watson Lake. He beat Euro Leader at levels at Aintree but could not master War of Attrition.
Take that form literally and don't look any where else for the winner, the problem is he bottles it at the end of his races, like a binge drinker in a Chinese in Aberystwyth i.e. falls asleep just when the food arrives.
The horse travels well, looks certain to win and finds a howler to make it hard for
himself.
Apparently when he won his seasonal debut this October at Limerick, his trainer
stated "he had an operation for an epiglotical entrapment problem, which we feel
hindered him last season." To you and me that's Irish for he had something in the
back of his throat - a greasy Chinese - no doubt.
Whatever, the horse has improved, and his trainer feels the optimum trip for the horse is 2 1/2 miles, even though he invariably runs over shorter.
Priced sensibly at 14/1 he has a squeak. The final Irish trier is Forget The Past
Make no mistake you cannot do what this name suggests.

His trainer considers it's another year before we see the best of him. His ability rating of 2171 indicates we have already seen some of that ability.

The horse has top notch form in Grade 1, 2 and 3 races over distances up to 3 miles.
His trainer can get him ready early and was scheduled for the bombed out Down Royal Meeting last Saturday, where he was entered in the Grade 3 Killultagh Properties 2 Vz mile chase against Watson Lake and Euro Leader. The horse got beat by Watson Lake last November at levels over 2 1A, and then beat the same horse by 6 lengths at Fairyhouse behind Like a Butterfly.
In giving 3 Ibs to Watson Lake on Saturday Forget The Past would appear to have a task, however, Watson Lake has an ability rating of only 1582, 589 inferior to Forget The Past.
So Forget The Past, is one to remember for the future.
Of course there are many other horses not mentioned, like Our Armageddon, Redempton, Tamango, Horus, Impek.
All will be winners again this season but hopefully not this race.
Only a select few feature here and we believe we have mentioned them.
Summary
The betting at this stage suggests everything in the betting will run.
Lacdoudal has too many ticks in so many boxes to ignore. We won't see him off such a weight as 10-9 ever again and even with a 3 Ibs rise cannot be ignored.
Richard Johnson who we respect has chosen history over prediction but regrettably has not got the greatest record in this race and has been runner up too many times.
Of course we respect his choice but 5/2 is short, expect Monkerhostin to be 9/2 at the off with late good money likely to make Our Vie the favourite - again.
Our number one is Lacdoudal and @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes & Totes) represents tremendous value.

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In the meantime, stake 70% @ 7/1 on Lacdoudal and 30% of your stake on
Forget The Past @ 14/1 with Hills.
Selection: Lacdoudal 70% of stake @ 7/1
Danger: , Forget The Past 30% of stake @ 14/1
Perpetual Publications

Well -

I

Like it !

Streuth - that's a lot to wade through.

Cheers though.

Win or lose -

I think that there is a lot to learn from in there !

tc

Yes, I thought that was a welcome breath of fresh air, TC.

Thanks for putting it up. Plenty to think about from a crowd I've never known much about.

thanks tuppenycat have you bought the trainers black book this season

No grundy

I am using Race Form Interactive.

It is hard work, but you can query the database for almost anything you like.

king harold, possible vdw selection any members agree?

Going to post... find it hard to oppose Monkerhostin. Not betting though. (Chicken for dinner).

'nother Pipe training performance to get Our Vic jumping again.

The training "performance" might've been getting it to fall before.

Now that made me chuckle.

Hmmm, I think i'll continue to ignore the twig-hopping side of the game.
Everywhere I looked I saw how Our Vic couldn't win etc etc - and these were knowledgable experts talking!

All I can remember from the time i used to bother with the sticks was that Pipe/Johnson always do well in November.

Then at the Christmas time meeting, the rot starts to set in.
Festival time, they have plenty of flops but always put in a big priced outsider or a Hunter chaser ( think he uses his son, David, for these hunters).

No, not my cup of tea. I'll leave it to the experts.
Anyway, I lose enough backing old Fallon on the AW, even though i know full well that he works for the bookies here in november! He will put in an odd one that's priced over 6/1, so that's the lesson I MUST remember.

What would vdw or Investor/pro have to say about all this, I wonder?

Last I saw, he was bleating on, as how he couldn't pick winners any more - cos he no longer had his Form Books.



Didn't he flog them to Black Cat ???

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Hard to know what he did.

I remember there was some kerfuffle about some old books, but then, that seems to be par for the course.

Yes, I've got them.

They will give me something to do when/if I get early retirement! Please God!

Hell, BC, those books will be antiquities by the time you retire, and you'll have to donate them to a museum!

Unless, of course, you really do look like that guy with the eye-patch.
In that case, I'd advise against buying any long-playing records, and suggest you'd better lump on quick in the first race at Sprint Alley or wherever.