Bc

I would agree with much of what you say, but would argue that Grey Swallow's absence is more a plus than a minus in this case. IMO, he has been specifically targetted at this race.
Also, again IMO, Phoenix Reach has not quite shown up to this level, as yet.
At least, we both have Epi's horse out of it.

Sean

I agree entirely about the ground. At both Newbury and York yesterday they were 'kicking the top off', both symptomatic of over-watered fast ground.
It may be good for the horses, but it plays hell with the punting. Pity they can't all learn from Ascot and do it very sparingly. After the Royal Ascot at York debacle, there is a strong case for bringing back hanging on the Knavesmire.

Fulham has let the World know that in the 2:35 at Newbury Royal Prince is a "Roushayd", again it may well be, but my own reading of the race is that I'm So Lucky is the clear VDW choice. I'll be backing Blythe Knight (if it's of any interest).

RPR nap is I'm so Lucky now fav on betfair,I might have a small ew on Go Tech,T Easterby has a fair strike rate at Newbury and its his only runner

Some interesting candidates and reasoning from all; thanks, gang.

Well, this morning, though I still don't know the intricacies of VDW, i can honestly say that i've spent a lot of time, worked a lot of figures, thought a lot of things, and generally wasted my life away on this KG race ( 420 Newbury, sat, 23 July).

Before listing just some of the boring details, let me tell you the equally boring outcome:

Strict decision: NO BET ( ha, ha, told ya!)

Must punt decision; AZAMOUR to place.

Hard to raise much enthusiasm, I agree, but for any who haven't switched off yet, here we go with the workings:

Top Six on my Prize money check;
Phoenix reach
Doyen
Warrsan
Azamour
Eswarah
Grey swallow

In top six of RP betting forecast:
PR
Az
Es
GS

Last 3 formfigs total no more than 12:
PR
Az
Es

Check these against RPR and TS:

AZAMOUR , the sole survivor.

Hang on, this critter is NOT a distance winner!
Well, there goes another one!
No wonder Investor lived in a mental hospital.

Gut feeling;

Get on ACE to place.

Fallon/O'Brien have a good SR in UK.

BAGO will win today..imho

Epi

Royal Prince wouldn't be a 'Roushayd' IMO for one very obvious reason. Has most of the attributes, but unproven at this distance, and there has to be some doubt about him getting it.

Royal Prince was introduced over 6f at Lingfield as a 2yr old.

What a "cool" ride !

Course record into the bargain !

Yes, we can also say that the best horse won and did it well.

J. Oxx is the master, and congrats also to David Elsworth and North Dancer. What a great price!

Tc

Not to take anything away from the winner, but I wouldn't get too hung up on the course record.
Probably the best races previously run over this c/d are the John Porter & the St Simon, both gp3's and neither run on summer ground.
The time was almost a second below the previous best, but looked at from the above angle, it would have been surprising if it wasn't.

Surely - North Dancer has to go - into the notebook !!

So close in so many races , and not a secunditus candidate.




tc

Yes, two great trainers who help punters profit - J Oxx and D Elsworth. They are the names for the notebook.

In fairness to VDW, my rudimentary, rough and ready attempt was proven right today,
with a great winner. The lesson was, however, that unless you trust the trainer to get things right re distance etc., don't bet. There has to be a first time.

i suppose if we were ultra cauteous, we might have been tempted to side with animals like

Doyen, earnings per race: £114940 and 2 wins,
or,
Mubtaker, £17815, and 9 wins.

Azamour, £104172 and 2 wins, with decent recent RPR and TS, was able to do the bizz no prob.

I was grateful to Fallon on Ace for taking them along at such a fast pace. There will be several animals fkd right up tomorrow morning.

Speed figures?
Horses, racing on different going in the same race, can only fk the figures up. Never mind turdtrack or whatever; if we had an aerial moisture content scan of the course before the race, we might have a clearer picture as to what was the actual situation.
As it is, punters can now spend the next 50 years arguing about but,ifs and milliseconds.
It'll be a bit like VDW, with most of us flying round in ever diminishing circles till we disappear up our own arse.

Talking of which, any Tannisworld syndicate members on board?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Seanrua,

Yes Johnd, I agree GS was a better candidate than PR in the end. My head was turned by the price! (sucker that I am)

Az ran a great race last by 12L at one stage. Well done to Seanrua for sticking with him. You are quite right, he was the only one with all the boxes ticked except distance - which put me off.

Ah well, we live to fight another Saturday.

BlackCat

On safari yet again, so just a very rushed point of view this morning, re the first day of Glorious Goodwood ( will it piss down?).

I make AUTUMN GOLD the selection in the big race.

hers a site some of you new to this thread that may interest you all you old v fans have all this im sure

http://www.vdw-collection.co.uk/?af=191571

good luck to all today

Thanks for the link, ace.

My selection was absolutely hopeless yesterday.
Hmmm.

That's a few times now that my sole "knock out" bet has been a total flop.

Well today, i'll give the top three ( according to my interpretation of VDW (+ other factors):

SOVIET SONG
AD VALOREM
CHIC.

My personal preference is for Chic.

quote:

Originally posted by epiglotis:
Fulham has let the World know that in the 2:35 at Newbury Royal Prince is a "Roushayd"

Perhaps he meant the 2.35 at Newmarket today!

Not strictly VDW but...

I've got:

5.20 Yarm - Successor (4/1)
6.00 Ham - Mystic Man (5/4)
8.05 Ham - Digital (5/4 although drifting)

Fingers crossed!

BlackCat

5.20: 3rd and 6.00 unpl

I have also had a small cover bet on Seafield Towers in the 8.05