Got 5/1 the pair. 3rd and unplaced

Ho hum.

2.35 Sandown
The race I decided to have a go at today proved very difficult to separate.

My initial shortlist involved half the field(!), and included Norton that I was loath to rule out. Although Eden Rock was easily dismissed by the method.

My selection is Momtic, with Helm Bank and Ace of Hearts as my shortlist. We'll soon see.

BlackCat

Result:
1st (15) Ace of Hearts 9-1
2nd (8) Momtic 9-2 Fav
3rd (17) Moonlight Man 50-1
4th (5) Helm Bank 10-1

3.05 Darley July cup

Thought I would start to do the top prize money race each day if time permits.

iffraaj 4* selection.

Also the form/speed horse is galeota

Lets see how this goes for a while.

Cheers,

Paul

NO good yesterday. Iffraaj was a big drifter yesterday, so i left it any way.

RT -1

Todays. 3.40 no bet as joint selections. No speed horse either

Paul

magnet cup day..any VDW selection

There's some discussion on "the other forum" about the 3:45 at Ayr with Celticello proposed as the clear class/form horse but with Sound Breeze as the (only) significant danger. This may well be the case, at least I can see why Celticello would be considered a "form horse" and these two horses have the lowest consistency figures of the first six in the forecast. However, I see no reason to consider Celticello to be a "class" horse, can anyone explain why it should be? As there are only eight runners I cant see any great need to "narrow the field", it's small enough, and considering all the runners surely Middlemarch would be the VDW class/form horse(?)

In answer to the above posting. Celticello is the c/form horse because he has ALL the required factors not just some of them. Although I agree Middlemarch is the class horse the way I work he can by no stretch of the imagination be considered consistent. Whether he could be a Roushayd type horse is another matter, for what it's worth I think he is. This is a massive drop in class from his last race, even bigger from his best ever. The only thing that stops him being an automatic bet for me is the course, all his best runs have been on stiff right handed courses. For me he is so far clear on class, that class could well be enough. There is the nagging doubt about the course, as VDW said no matter what the class or form if the course is wrong they seldom win.
This could well be an example of Fulham's explanation of how a c/form horse can fail on class, because Celticello's class is being taken on trust. He may well be the best of the consistent form horses, but is he really the best of the form horses? M has to be a form horse as his last run was the best for a long time, and that must mean he is improving. Will I back him? I can't say right now, I will wait until I see how he looks and behaves before the race. If I back him will it be to win and/or place, that depends on the answers to the first questions and the price(s) of course?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Agree that Middlemarch is dropping a long way in class and his last run was his best for a long time, but he's yet to win this side of the Irish Sea - last win in a stakes at the Curragh back in October '03.

While Celticello has many things going for it, the one worry to me is that he's a brother to St Andrews and thus may not act as well on the fast going - not been tried on faster than good.

The same question as to going could be raised about Sound Breeze, but at least his sire won the Gr 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on gd/fm.

With the prices on offer it would be a race to leave alone for me, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sound Breeze came through to take it.

Oldtimer

Mtoto: thanks. I still dont see how Celticello can be the class/form horse if there's a form horse of clearly higher class. If the narrowing of the field was guaranteed to include the winner it would seem reasonable to make Celticello the class/form horse by default, but it doesn't always include the winner, so I imagine cases such as this where there is a clearly superior horse, even by VDW criteria, excluded by the narrowing aren't unusual. Further, how can one trust the narrowing process when it can be seen to miss horses such as Middlemarch? To conclude that there is a conflict between the consistency rating/forecast and the class/form assessment requires examining all the runners, I conclude that the "narrowing of the field" isn't a practical measure but an element in the catagory "probability".

Mtoto: one more point, I believe you've said that you dont worry much about a horse's record regarding going or distance as you trust the trainer, why doesn't this idea also apply to the nature of the course?

Epi

In my view Middlemarch is the class horse in the race, and the c/f horse, though he wouldn't be a bet for similar reasons to those raised by Mtoto.
I wouldn't bet Celticello to beat Bound Breeze, either.

Johnd: thanks. I really dont see why Fulham thinks Celticello is a certainty for a place, it looks a very iffy proposition to me and the idea that 2-5 for the place or Dutch meets the requirements for "temperament and odds" thus fully qualifying it as a VDW selection surprises me.

quote:

I still dont see how Celticello can be the class/form horse if there's a form horse of clearly higher class

If one works in the same way as Fulham I suppose there is no way Middlemarch could be a form horse. This is because of the weight to be carried and the sequence Fulham works to. I'm still not sure why he thinks weight defines whether a horse is actually in form and why it doesn't come under capability. As he has left this board I doubt we will ever hear his thoughts on this, pity.

You ask why I don't trust the trainers when it comes to the course(s). Apart from the fact VDW went out of his way to mention how important it is, the main reason is most of the races worth targeting are only run on certain courses. I think many trainers throw caution out the window when it comes to these races and take a chance. I can see no reason why the trainer and the racing press considered the Eclipse was the race for Motivator. If he had been mine I would have run him in the King George at Newbury. They are now making noises about the Arc, again I think this is wrong. All his best form has been on left handed courses. A stiff right handed course found him out in the Eclipse why do they think the Arc won't do the same. On Saturday the favourite for the big handicap Ace Of Hearts, for me came unstuck for the same reason, the wrong course. Ok, he had won at Newbury, but in much lower class. His best 3 runs had all been on stiff right handed course. I'm not into laying, but I was sure AOH wouldn't win, and when I was asked was he a lay, I had to say yes. Most of these trainer bang on about weight, but seem not to believe the courses are just as big an obstacle. Whether this is in part down to the racing maxims like he wins on a stiff 6/10 (what ever), so an easy 7/12 will be no trouble, I don't know. All I do know is time and time again it doesn't hold up, and very often guess what gets the blame WEIGHT.

Be Lucky

Okay, that makes sense for high class races but would it have been such an important consideration in today's race?

Mtoto

Isn't it an odd kind of logic which dictates that a trainer will 'take a punt' on whether a horse will act on a course, but not take the same chance regarding class, going, or distance.
Or do you "throw caution out of the window" in respect of the others, too?
Michael Bell did take a punt with Motivator, but as he has made very clear since, his demise had nothing to do with the course he ran on, but was due to a combination of the fast ground, steady pace, and the drop in trip, a view I would support totally.
Given a good pace and decent ground, I believe the horse will again confirm his class, whether over 10f or 12f, flat,stiff, or undulating, lft hand, rt hand, or straight! ( So, too, does his trainer, if I am not mistaken ).

Epi
As you know, my opinion of Fulham much mirrors your own, and I am surprised at your surprise.
Surely anyone having half the knowledge of VDW's method he feigns to have would find it risible to even contemplate place betting.
Sad loss my sorry butt!

Seppuku

Jd,

A nice summation.

But as a vdw race it was another nail in the coffin because both the 'debatable' selections were clearly outclassed and or out of form.

Which all comes back to the inadequacies of the criteria vdw said were to be used to determine a horses' class and its fitness.

If the 'leading lights' of vdwology are now reduced to place betting I can clearly see a tattered white sheet being waved above the ruins of the shattered fort.

Now decades later like some ancient private of Japans' once proud, arrogant and bellicose Imperial army they will come in from the jungle. And accept that the once unthinkable defeat has long since been a reality.

Jib

If your Japanese soldier kept shooting himself in the foot, would you see him as a 'leading light' or question his competence with a rifle?
Or maybe even court martial the rifle?

With the prices on offer it would be a race to leave alone for me, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sound Breeze came through to take it.

Nice one OT

JohnD,

All I said was I wasn't prepared to go along with a trainer that was happy to take a chance about running a horse on the wrong type of course. If that trainer is happy to run that horse over a distance or going the horse is unproven on I am at times happy to go along with that. If said trainer is happy to try something in a big race he must have a reason for doing so. That not to say I would tag along if he had tried and failed before. I have tried to explain he has to take a chance if the horse has been targeted for a specific race, classics, or top handicaps.
Motivator. Isn't it easier to blame outside circumstances like lack of pace, than to say I cocked up and ruined this horses unbeaten record? M was cruising until he hit the rising ground. How/why did the race lack pace, the s/f returned was the same as his s/f for the Derby, did anyone say that race lacked pace? If the ground was to firm why not pull him out? If the race lacked pace why not force the pace, after all he had proven he could stay further. Mr Bell believed the hype, this was the new Pegasus. All he had done was win an average Derby. I had Shamardal as the likely winner of the Eclipse, when he was pulled out the pace had gone from the race. Have to admit I couldn't see Oratorio as the winner, but I did think he was a fair bet for a place. Just as I thought M was a good lay at the price. I don't for one moment think Mr Bell and yourself are the only ones who think M will redeem himself. But if it isn't on a flat left handed track I will be putting him up as another lay.

As I have said many times, Fulham has, and is still helping people try to understand VDW. Yes, he makes mistakes, and at times gets it wrong, but where is the harm in that? IF you learn from your mistakes. He has changed his thinking from time to time, and is still looking and sharing his ideas. Apart from a few pre race selections can I ask what have you added to the discussion, apart from pouring scorn on everything he says. I do hope you are a better judge of horses than you appear to be about people. Then again maybe not.

Be Lucky

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Mtoto,