315N: A 3YO Hcp with no exposed form?

This is pure pissing in the wind but Le Corvee for me, on the positive side it has had a recent run in this class which showed hes not out 0f place here. (On the downside one of his grandfathers is Mtoto!)

I wont be betting it though as there is virtually nothing to go for any of the runners, even most of the sires are new ones and none of the trainers seem particularly disposed to farm 3yo hcps here.

Had a quick look at the Lockinge but all that foreign form is a big turn off for me.

The 3.15 is a 3yo HCP which I tend to leave until much later in the season.

The one that interests me is Flamboyant Lad in the3.45 Newbury who is very much on the upgrade and seems to have some similarities with Solo Flight who is also in this race now for a different trainer. I'm hopeful that Barry Hills can win another race or 2 with this horse but I'm not convinced today will be the day. It's been mentioned before on here about horses failing when expected and then going in at bigger prices when people avoid them. I think I'll leave him today and keep an eye on him depending how he runs.

in the lockinge with doubts over most of the main contenders i would be inclined to take a chance with tarfah at a double figure price.

withdrawn.

that makes Rakti
last run 85+ days = 1- 11- 11- 1- = 100%

and one more today

still couldn't have it..good ride today..

it's gone quiet here



nothing tomorrow?

So quiet, Ectoo, that I'm rating a £10K race at Ripon!

Starting with my own shortlist:

340 Ripon

Baron Rhodes
Yomato
Bonne de Fleur
Sierra Vista

Then I do my VDW thing ( mostly win prize money):

Sierra Vista 29 g d ( g=going, d = distance)
Bonne de Fleur 12 c d ( c=course)
Baron Rhodes 11 g
Yomato 9 g

Next, RPR
Yomato and Bonne

Next, TS
Bonne

next, A Massey
Sierra

Finally, another rating:
Sierra

So, BONNE DE FLEUR and SIERRA VISTA
come out joint top overall.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Seanrua,

Complete and utter failure!

In fairness, I have only myself to blame: the winner was a worthy candidate that I ignored.

Top OR, equal top RPR, ans a decent speed fig, with - wait for it - 2nd top on my way of doing VDW: 18 gdc. !!!

I didn't even put this 6yo mare on my shortlist!
Cock up.

I know how you feel.

FJ

Yes, FJ, it was not a good day for my bets.

Can I come in your prison?

I bags the top bunk, though, as I don't fancy being under a fat jockey.

FJ

Quiet again.



FJ

I've had a go at the 210 Goodwood.

It's on the other VDW thread.

Hi, thought I'd have a go at the 3.50 at Goodwood today. It's really just me putting it up to be knocked down so don't be concerned if I've got it wrong. I wont be backing it

3 most consistent:
Cape royal 8
The lord 9
Dancing Mystery 9
Polish Emperor 10

Best 4 on ability:
Whistler 92
Texas gold 88
The Lord 86
Cape Royal 83

The whistler, Texas Gold, Dancing mystery and polish Emperor are not common to both, leaving Cape Royal and The Lord. Both are suited to Distance and going.

The Lord is carrying 5 lbs extra since lto and and who's last three race values averaged are 3 points lower than Cape Royal's.

Concerns:
I am unsure of this summary as Dancing Mystery being 2nd in consistency is carrying 14lbs less than lto but got left out of the ability rating by 7 points under Cape Royal.

From my pov it is noticeable that the f/c fave Cornus is not in the above yet seems, from one of VDW's examples, poised to win...being on the boil with a CBSF and is being dropped in class and distance today.

Turnstile

looking at todays racing, iffraaj,soldiers tale,...somnus..divine gift, ayr, seems dropped quite a bit in class?

Well, Grundy, I have one of those horses in my VDW attempt for today's big race:

345 York, Golden Jubilee. 6f.

My shortlist of three, using the criteria of yesterday's post:

CAPE OF GOOD HOPE
SOMNUS
BYRON

If any of these has a decent chance, it's good value.
I may have a place bet, myself.

The ground is too fast by some way for Somnus, imho Sean.

well done Sean

Cheers, Ectoo!

Amazingly, this rough selection method has hit the jackpot yesterday and today.

The main "improvement" seems to be the using of Ladbroke's ( bastrds) price list.

Reluctantly, I have to say that knocking out any with "last 3 formfigs" greater than 12 in total has also helped.

Quite frankly though, these big races are a bit of a carry-on really. As soon as I said Micky Joe is over the hill, and Stoute and Johnston are having a whore of a season, just look what happened!

Well done Seanrua.

Why "reluctantly"? If the principle is working for you, might it be an idea to keep it 'in' your selection process for a while to see if it helps over a longer period?

BlackCat