The age factor can knock amateur VDW into a cocked hat on the flat!

Perhaps everything should be divided by age of horse?

obviously Papineau wasn't a form horse..he had only won his last 3 races against better horses.

Ectoo,

Papineau may have been IN form ( but had a long time of the course since), but as he was only 4th in your ratings did he have the form to win this? I have no idea how you arrive at your ratings but mine also had him in joint 3rd/4th..........

Papineau 113
Millenary 118
Alcazar 113
Franklins Gardens 112
Frank Sonata 115
Percussionist 100
Jardines Lookout 115

We both had Millenary as the top rated, you decided to go with him. I decided the lack of a run could count against him as there were race fit horses in the race. I was also worried about him having to come from of the pace in this ground. Rather than posting another no bet race I didn't bother, I thought it may upset you.

You comparing this race to a banded result is just another silly statement, you seem to have plenty of them.

Be Lucky

I'm a silly person sometimes Mtoto

which I prefer to having my head up my arse.

which I prefer to having my head up my arse.



Ectoo,

If the head is in proportion to the mouth, it is something you will never have to worry about. Unless you can achieve the impossible. Think you will have a bit of trouble trying that if you can't even hold a reasonable conversation.

Be Lucky

Hello EC,
I have great respect for you but if Franklin Gardens was a VDW selection why did you not say so before the race.
I have been putting my neck on the line before the races are run and of course I am not always correct but I would really like to see definite selections for races before they are run from the VDW experts on this forum.
Why have a long debate about past races where the factors are old and ancient we want selections and discussion on races that are happening now and not way back in the 70's.
Let's move ahead to this century and update the VDW method instead of backfitting and after timing all the time.

Lockinge

Elvstroem is the clear class horse, and the going and distance shouldn't be a problem.
His lto run is a query though; could have been the draw, or could have been the result of a long season with a lot of travel.
Not one I would bet against, though.

Ectoo
Papineau was the clear class horse, obviously, to a VDW follower.
He was also unlikely to be at his peak for this race and probably being prepped for the Ascot Gold Cup, again,meat and drink to those who care enough to consider such things.
All plain and simple logic, but missed by so many who seem to think it's all about arithmetic.
You could learn a lot from him,....... but I doubt it!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Gummy + JohnD

I was only joking with my "post" race summing up.

very sorry..I thought you would have spotted that

JohnD..you say they would have been aiming Papineau at the Gold Cup..do horses only win their main target races then?

Do any of you guys ever bet a horse when the trainer has said he will improve for this run or he needs the run?

I dont anymore

I normally double the stake Rab

If you watch ATR.. trainers are regularly saying their horse won't be "ready"..they dot up in at least 50% of the cases.

It's just another pre race, prepared, excuse they give just in case the horse loses..they then go to the owner and say.."well it wasn't really ready"..whereas if it wins..they are a f ing genius in the eyes of the owner.

Do you see how it works Rab?..it's all about trainers covering themselves for after the race is run.

A complete and utter red herring

I'll pay more attention to it EC,Cheers

I must have selective memory to the losers ive backed

Sorry EC I'm afraid I was very, very, drunk at the time


Today's rated race is the 3.15 at Newbury and the top 3 are all definite bets.
/van.htm

Rab

Not long ago someone posted about this on another board

something like.."the next time I hear a trainer decry his horse's chance..I'm lumping on"

There were a few examples given as well.

Really, this does happen a fair bit mate. I try to totally ignore trainers just before a race is being run..they only have one thing in their mind..keeping the owner sweet. Thats why very few trainers will EVER say their horse will win..if it loses when they have said it will win they then look like a talentless dickhead later to the owner.

it was a bit naughty of me Gummy

good luck today

Gummy

quote:

Originally posted by Rab:
Do any of you guys ever bet a horse when the trainer has said he will improve for this run or he needs the run?

I dont anymore

Rab
Rarely, if ever, when the horse is said to 'need the run'.
Some trainers are more open than others; which are which can be gleaned from regular perusal of pre-race quotes in the RP

which trainers are reliable John?

I think they are all reliable ..but only in relation to their owners, not us.

For example
If Jarvis said that Rakti wasn't wound up for today I wouldn't take much notice because we can clearly see from his form that he is not one to back when he has actually had a previous run..it's when he is fresh that he runs best.

RAKTI
last run 84 days or less = 22- 85107 = 14%
last run 85+ days = 1- 11- 11- 1- = 100%

I really do think 95% of pre race trainer speak is more damaging to the punter than aid.

LOCKINGE
No real pace in the race which means Rakti will pull his head off..can't win imho

I can see a speed horse winning this off a steadyish pace..the perfect one is ARAKAN who possesses superb 6f/7f speed which he can put to use today without needing to stay 8f.

Struggling with this Lockinge.

As I follow Stoute , I like Ectoo's choice, Arakan, BUT, the figures I read, AND this VDW stuff, knock him right out of the picture, I fear.

It seems to hinge on Rakti's antics, and I have no confident bet lined up.

MY shortlist for starters:

Autumn Glory
Babodana
Hurricane alan
Le Vie de Colori
Rakti
Tarfah

Then, the old attempt at VDW type stuff:
( Excluding ELVIS who may piss in, for all I can see))

Rakti 268 g,d
Babodana 93 g,d
Hurricane Alan 83 g,d
Le Vie de Colori 62 g,d

Autunm and Tarfah didn't get near, which is a pity, as I like Autumn Glory.
Babo has to be rejected on recent form.

Right, Rakti should win, BUT, I'm a contrary bggr, so I bet

HURRICANE ALAN EW
LE VIE DE COLORI EW ( Cumani)

and Autumn Glory ( not VDW) to place.

Bold call ectoo !

Think I will side with O'Brian and Fallon on Antonius Pius - there must be EW value there.

tc