I shall do ratings for the 1.30 at York tomorrow.

Here are the ratings for the 1.30 at York
/van.htm

I really do think that Talbot Avenue is worth a decent bet the horse missed the Duke Of York Stakes to run here,it likes the soft and definitely likes the course.
Fire Up The Band beat Talbot Avenue into 3rd at Chester last week but Fire Up The Band was gifted the race with the trouble in behind.
The Timeform comments puts me off both Fire Up The Band and River Falcon.

Trying a few changes this morning.

First, a different way of rating gives these three:

Talbot Avenue 114
River Falcon 113
Danzig River 110.



Then, my usual "VDW" way ( as described yesterday):

Fire Up the Band, 29 dg
Matty Tun, 23 cdg
Cape Royal, 20 dg
River Falcon, 16 cdg.


So, I choose
RIVER FALCON.

Hmmm, turns out to be the forecast fav.

130Y

Another v difficult one!

Fire Up The Band has had his turn lto and may well be compressing for Danzig River. Of the two the latter is the most likely to handle the ground sire stat wise. However Danzig River has not yet won at 5f,(only 6f, twice,) though the sire stats say 5f should not be a problem and on this ground it is going to take more getting.

Pivotals' River Falcon is ideally placed (2/6 on the going and 3/13 at 6f) but the price is miserable considering his SR (which whilst it is good is hardly devasting) and is unlikely to get any better with Fallon on board.

I've managed to get a shade under 3/1 on Danzig River to place which seems fair. As a 4yo there is still improvemrent to come. It is now 18 months since his last win. Though there has been a bit of place money he now owes the owners and Dandy Nichols will need to throw them a bone soon.

Beware Talbot Avenue which has never won or placed on soft, indeed has only ever had one run on it and whose sire stats for soft are 2% and 1% for heavy. He does not look placed to win.

A few thoughts on the first 6 in betting ;

Danzig River
Won this last year on similar ground. Inconsistent, and probably flattered by last run.


Talbot Avenue
Perennial loser who hasn't had his head in front for 2 years

Fire Up The Band
Has the form and class to win this. Inconsistent last year, but 2 recent operations may have changed that. Not something to bet on; or something to bet against.


Danzig River
Better at 6f.Unlikely to be enough of a test today.

Bygone Days
Improved last year. Not up to FUTB's level so far, but could go close.

Cape Royal
Another improver. Lto run can safely be ignored.



The 3.00 looks to be between Fine Silver and Polar Bear, possibly in that order.

Luck to all
Johnd

This 1.30 looks a tricky race and it won't surprise anybody (particularly Ectoo ) when I say I'm not playing.

Gummy's selection Talbot Ave does have some things going for it but a lot of negatives as well.

The Chester race with Fire Up The Band, Talbot Avenue & Danzig River looks to have best recent form. All 3 were drawn together in 4,5&6 in that race so who was better suited by the Chester track. Fire Up The Band had previously won a listed race at Chester so we knew he would act and it seems likely he was laid out to win that race. If we look at Talbot Avenue who finished close up to him though we see that both his last 2 wins have come at YORK.

I agree with John D that he is a perennial loser. JIB also rightly points out his preference for faster ground but I'm not sure I agree with JIB about him not being placed to win though, the return to York where he runs his best races may be significant. In saying he's not been placed to win I feel JIB may be over rating the trainer who IMHO is a muppet and that surely is the biggest negative behind Talbot Avenue. Winning handicaps is all about placing your horse well and a look at the record of Talbot's placement by the good Mr Mullineaux since he last won off 85 back in 2003 tells us all we need to know. He managed to get the horse raised all the way to 102 without winning again and he's still rated a full stone above his last winning mark despite that win being almost 2 years ago.

Would you want to trust your hard earned to that man? I certainly wouldn't

Picked the wrong one of the two again!

Am I right in thinking that todays race is going to be the 335Y?

If so I've got it down to Mutawaqed, Eisteddfod, and Funfair Wane.

As I'm having terrible trouble with atmospherics (rainy season) I wont risk being able to get on the net tomorrow morning to see what the market is indicating, so I'll take advantage of my current good connection and dutch all three proportionally.

It currently pays a fraction over 7/2 on BF.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Hello JIB,
I am rating the 2.30 at York which is the Yorkshire Cup.

Frank sonata
Millenary
Papineau

Papineau has the class to win, but won't be 100% on his first run.
Millenary usually needs a run, but I reckon he'll strip fit today.
If either of the above are on song, the others have no chance IMO.

Ratings for the 2.30 at York are here

/van.htm

I will dutch on the three.
All of the three seem to have their quirks and need the race to fall right for them.
I do like the look of Percussionist though and will have a small each-way bet on the horse as well.

Don't quite know how I've done this today, but

List 1
Papineau 134
Millenary 132
Alcazar 135
Defining 129
Frank Sonata 100

List2
Millenary 125 8yo
Defining 104 6yo
Frank Sonata 100 4yo

"VDW" attempt
Alcazar 45 gd 10yo
Defining 30 gd
Frank Sonata 28 g

So, mainly on age, I pick from these

DEFINING
to beat
Frank Sonata and Millenary.

?? what?!?

My view of the race in numbers

121 MILLENARY + PERCUSSIONIST
120 ALCAZAR
115 PAPINEAU
115 JARDINES LOOKOUT
114 FRANK SONATA
112 FRANKLINS GARDENS
111 DEFINING
99 MASSIF CENTRAL

Between Percussionist and Millenary

I prefer MILLENARY ..one reason is the jockey relationship..Winston first ride today on Percussionist...but Quinn is 5/6 on Millenary.

Millenary for me.

230Y

Last years race had an average OR of 113 taking in the principle finishers and leaving out Millenary (only the top 3rd on OR), the winner.

This year, again leaving out Millenary, the average OR is only 108. So on paper the race is easier for Millenary this year than last.

As well as this favourable condition Millenary carries the same weight though is now the top OR rated of all the runners.

Today both Going and jockey are the same as last year.

The only negative is the lack of a recent run which Millenary enjoyed last year, but he was withdrawn a week ago obviously to be saved for this and to my mind has been placed to win and is a definite bet.

and yet another banded racing result..best win before today was a Group 3 race ..today against Group 2 + Group 1 horses..beats them.

I wonder how we can backfit this one.

It was in my top 20 by the way..does that count as a plus for me????

I think I will concentrate on handicaps for now.
As they seem to be giving better results than these Group thingys.

Maybe you youngsters are forgetting the effects of age.

Once a horse goes past 6 years of age, he starts to feel each year more ( don't I fkn know it too!!).

This is where "ould form" in the " ould form books" may fall down, I feel.

Poor ould Mick Kinnane is showing the same bad signs of age, I regret to say, though he does manage a winner most days.

Stoute's only toying with them yet - I hope!

Still, Defining wasn't bad at 6/1 for the place on deathfare!

I've just had a check on this race..the winner was in fact a CLEAR VDW selection.

phew

Obviously you have to invent reasons for the real VDW selections getting beat..

obviously Papineau wasn't a form horse..he had only won his last 3 races against better horses

the rest of them had various reasons I can't quite put my finger on yet..and that left FRANKLINS GARDENS as the CLEAR selection.

I could get good at this VDW stuff I reckon