So they don't mess up the VDW thread I will put the rated races here.
The rated race selections are purely my opinion and are open to debate.
Instead of using both Formcast and Postmark would it be better to just use one and use some ratings based on time figures.

Gummy

I presume you might be doing the Duke Of York Stakes

if not then delete this..it's my analysis and not a VDW analysis..in fact if I am posting here when not wanted you can delete it..just thought a few views from other angles may strengthen or weaken your opinion.

Duke Of York Stakes

Steenburg - Tompkins well out form..something wrong?
Somnus - usually needs first run
Patavellian - ? on very slow ground
Striking Ambition & Welsh Emperor - are both below this class and will burn each other off at the front.

The two of interest to me are Orientor & Royal Millenium.

ORIENTOR is a horse that runs well without winning in the early months which is surprising as he likes give in the ground. His record clearly shows when he produces his best form
March-May = 2143- 364- 229- 24595- 82- = 6 %
June-August = 310015- 0- 01975- 315- = 27 %
Sept-Nov = 3203- 5223- 462- 8006- 76- = 0 %

His record is superb with give between June & August = 1- 1- 15 = 75%.

I can't fancy him tomorrow even with the ground slow.


ROYAL MILLENIUM is my idea of the winner. He loves the ground, will get the race
run to suit and looks the most likely winner.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

Interesting early analysis, Ectoo.

First, can we take it that everyone agrees this IS the correct race to use?
I'm sure it is.

I need the RP paper before I can give the race the old VDW type spin.

For tonight, I have

Orientor
The Kiddykid
Patiavellian
Royal Millenium

on my list.

I expect some of these will fail on the prize-money test, and, to my mind, some are too old.

We'll see tomorrow.

Hello EC/Sean,
Spot on you have got the correct race I haven't finished the ratings yet but the page is here /van.htm

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Gummy,

300Y

Too difficult for me!

If it had had a previous run Pivotals' second (? who can forget Kyllachy) greatest son, Somnus, would be a definite bet. But fto seems to need the run, though T Easterby is a tricky customer and I would put nothing past him!

York is my local course when in the UK and when the going says 'soft' the Knavesmires black earth is v sticky stuff, so make sure your selection can handle it!

Royal Millennium to win, with possibly La Cucaracha to chase him home!

Striking ambition and a saver on Royal millennium

I've had to change the page address the rated race is here van.htm

Somnus is a definite bet and I will have a small saver on the other two but only to cover my stake on Somnus.
The stable is out of form and Somnus usually needs a run but that is a risk I'm prepared to take.

Hmmm, this is interesting and difficult.

For some reason, my calcs don't tally with Gummy's this morning, and my original selections have been rejected.
I should point out that my take on VDW does NOT include formfig consistency or betting rank, so it's not the full Monty by any means.

Anyway,

Fayr Jag 175 cd-
Somnus 143 cdg ( g = going )
Orientor 60 cdg
The Kiddykid 53 dg
Striking Ambition 42 dg

I never like to go too far away from my speed figures, and after checking a few other things,
my bet is

ORIENTOR EW.

Hello Sean,
Have I made a mistake in my ability calculations or is it that you use different rating criteria.

3:00 York

Somnus 120
Royal Millennium 120
Striking Ambition 117
The Kiddykid 115

It looks close on the bare ratings, but on further investigation Somnus is the clear best in the race. So he is consistent, top on ability, clearly is capable. This then leaves probability, can he over come this trend of needing a couple of races? First question is this race as strong as last years? I don't think so, has S improved since last year, I think he has. Is this race worth winning again yes, will winning it interfere with future plans can't see how? The going will suit but will he again be held up, looks hard to come off the pace. On balance it's a no bet race as price doesn't cover the doubts for me. Just goes to show making a race a no bet race often isn't the easy way out. A lot of folk would say let's take the chance, and put the work to some use. I must say it wasn't an easy decision to make.

Ectoo/JIB

The stats you have used today are the only stats I would use. They relate to the HORSE not the trainer/jockey or what daddy did.

Why do you think the sprinter would get passed the capability and probability stages? Why can't you accept consistency is the starting point? If a horse can run well when everything isn't in it's favour isn't that a better starting point than one that only performs when everything is. Of course there is nothing to stop you then checking your little book and finding out what the horse really does like. If it runs well without the favoured conditions, isn't it a good bet when they do suit?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

You have lost me with your last post.

First which is the horse that has done well when not ideally placed?

Secondly when stating that Somnus was the best animal in the race I clearly mentioned his sire (and to whit his famous brother).

However as you point out Somnus needs a race to get wound up. If you take your precious CR and remove his seasonal debuts from the figs you will see the benefits of being more selective in your evaluations.

If you go to Cabbies 'Handicaps' thread in the 'general' section of the forum you will see that I stated that Zero Tolerance was ideally placed in the 130Y (before the off).

In older horses, as these two races are composed, it is virtually impossible for a horse to perform well at 'new' distances or on previously unfavourabe going.

With younger horses I thankfully have the recourse of sire and trainer stats to guide me as to both the suitability of conditions as well as the likelyhood of intentions.

Gummy,

The raw data I use is from the RP paper, so I expect that's about the same for everybody.

However, I think you do things more correctly, whereas this is what I do for speed;

a) Roughly divide Win prize money by number of wins; rounding down and finishing mostly with just two figs.

Eg., The Kiddykid
17/4 = 17

Then, provided the last win was this year or last, I add that prize money ( just the Ks)
= 36

So, 17 + 36 = 53

Then I check for C,D. and G.
A minimum of one win with these criteria earns the letter.

So, 53 DG,
and that's the Kiddykid done.

You can see the leading results above.

Next, I check which of thiese are on my speed fig list.
The top four of this list were
Orientor
The Kiddykid
Patavellian
Royal Millenium

Finally, I look for something on both lists.
Orientor and The Kiddykid qualified.

Instead of dutching as VDW ( Peach) probably would, I picked the wrong one!

Ho hum.

First which is the horse that has done well when not ideally placed?

JIB,

In the course of a season MANY horses still manage to be placed even when the conditions are not favourable. These are the horses I use when I look at a race the ones that consistently run well. There is no need to forget about the c/rating as it only a starting point, and then the horse is looked at in depth. Just saying a horse always needs a run is just as bad as saying all Pivotal's need soft and /or 6f. If you have any sense you check out THAT horse in THAT race. It wasn't the fact he may have needed the run it was more that he would have to come from of the pace in that ground.

What did your book say about the winner? I'm not claiming him I can't. However he was consistent and in my top four. Isn't that a good enough place to start?

Be Lucky

looks like group races can be just as hard as banded races

the winner was in my top twenty Mtoto..but it's no use to me

hi sean,
forgive me for butting in sean, but im curious re peach being vdw, what leads you to think that? methodmaker (the late phill alexander) used to reply to some of vdw articles, and phill was in my opinion as straight as they come.peach has without doubt made a few bob recycling vdw articles, but thats another matter.
regards dennis.

the winner was in my top twenty Mtoto..but it's no use to me.

Ectoo,

Another silly statement. By being in my top 4 I had eliminated 7 of the runners. In these 7 runners where a few others where making a case for. Of the 4 I had left the weakest was Royal millennium. So while you can't see the point in it I had cut this field to 3.

Be Lucky

Hello Wannawin,

We're in danger of starting a right big flare up with this subject- who was VDW?

First, I have to say, that I certainly don't know. I've no evidence at all.

Second, the idea that he may have been Peach has come just from reading what some people say.

I agree that methodmaker ( the late Phil Alexander) was a very straight and decent man.

Btw, I wanted to ask, JIB, what news of the lady who may be VDW's widow?
Any developments?

One thing you were right about, Ectoo, was your view that Striking Ambition would burn himself off from the front.

Not the best of rides or tactics from the Dazzler, imo!

I'd agree with Mtoto that a horse that has managed to place, more than once, when running in unfavourable conditions, has shown a positive factor.

Perhaps we could call this " courage"?

Don't think this is an idea unique to VDW though, but it is a good one, whatever.