MAX
re the 3.15 a very good write up

be lucky cabbie

Max,

Good analysis of the Ling 3.15, like you said it was between two and like Mikey I went for Montecassino Abbbey. So you were on a sure-fire winner then!

Oldtimer

well done max!!!very good call on the race .....nice prices too .just the type of race we should always be looking for!!

I hate talking about races that have been run but I wonder could you clear this up for me. Today another race in which two horses came to the fore.
2:25 Ayr a Class D handicap chase. The Rile and Lord Jack.

The Rile had straight 130's class D
Lord Jack had 125 lto, 125 Best ever, 125 best of last 3 in a grade C . Today it was running at 132.

Question - Because Lord Jack has ran 125c and today is now in a grade D race is it right to assume he can go to 135, even tho his best ever is only 125?.

Any thoughts?.

before today lto the rile had a 130 class d.allthough it won that race very easily you have to ask how much it was going to come on from that today in the same class.if you compare it with the only other serious danger lord jack you can see over hurdles it had a best of 111 class d,a little better than lord jacks 107 class d but over the bigger fences lord jack's lto of 125 and best 125 class c showed it to be improving.running one grade lower today it is correct to assume that it was well capable of running a 135 in that class and that is before you start to make allowances for improvement.

imagine for a moment both horses ran in the same grade when scoring their best pm's if you pretend they were in class d then you get

lord jack on 135 and the rile on 130

if you pretend they both ran class c as lord jack did then you get

lord jack 125 and the rile 120

whatever way you work it lord jack will allways come out ahead.

after you had isolated the two of interest the only other thing to do was to ask yourself this-

the rile won in this grade lto 130d,lord jack 125 higher grade c so for the rile to beat lord jack it would need to improve 5lbs and that is assuming lord jacks form stayed static and it ran without any improvement.
with them both only having four chases between them it was a fair bet that they had both not reached their optimum level going into the race.so if for example lord jack improved to the tune of 5lbs(being conservative)the rile needs to find 10lbs and so on.

Cheers Max.

MAX. One thing that seems to be missing in all these methods is a lack of the recognition of speed.
Using the method as laid down I found that on the AW nothing came out right.
Could you explain or direct to what I have missed.
warrington

when i posted this method up the a/w had not started that is why up until now the speed element has been left out.
the method has in the main been for n/h where in my opinion speed figures are not nearly as important(sorry swish)but when using the method on the flat and especially the a/w you should be backing up your findings with a reliable source of speed figures.
the obvious ones to use are topspeed and i shall make it a priority to post up how i use them because i seem t remember telling mikey i would explain but completly forgot about it.

will post tonight.

empire park 120c 22s 120/102/120
tristram 99f 22h 104/ 99/ 99
cabelle 106d 16gs108/ 97/106
colline du 99f 16h 99/ 99/ 99
vengegeura 100f 24f 99/ 50/100
briar 94e 17h 94/ 94/ 94

tristram's 99 class f leaves it with plenty to do and today running off a 5lb higher mark.improvent is expected but even allowing for the trainer record its best of 90d over hurdles shows it to be nothing special.

cabelle ran a stinker lto in an amateur race but its 106 class d prior to that puts it in the picture,the thing that worrys me though is the extra 5 1/1f because it ahs only ever won over the minimum trip.

colline's lto and best pm's of 99 in a class f show it going the right way but much more needed here and would need to significantly improve to trouble 3 or 4 of these.

vengegeura 104 class f also some way short and its best of 100 is simply not good enough.it would need most of these to fall or run seriously below their form to win.there is also a doubt about the going for this one.

brair at least is showing something like the sort of form need to win this race but the distance is a worry with its only win coming over 4f shorter you have to ask wether the extra distance in the mud is want the horse wants.lto and best pm's of 94 class e shows improvemnt but not good enough.

empire park is the selection allthough the trainer is 0/4 in chases at the course i think this one dropped in class should be good enough.it has ran in bbc class races last three runs and today in a class d its 120c is well ahead of the others.its best of 120 was achieved over the distance and with plenty of cut in the ground so todays conditions should be spot on.the excellent polly gundry rides and has won on the horse recently.
if you look at the horses lto pm of 102 you can see that the horse ran below its best and still managed a pm higher than any of the fields best so given half a chance today to put that run behind it a pm anywhere near 10lbs of its best should be more than enough to win this.
if you take its nearest rival on the figures cabelle's best of 106 class d and compare with empire's lto 102 class c you can see that with the grade scale i use empire has 6lb in hand assuming empire runs as before below its best and cabelle runs up to its best mark.
so in conclusion my selection is empire park with cabelle to fill the runner up spot if it gets the trip.

Good call mate,Well done Just using your first figure alone i.e best p.m from last 3 runs and class achieved,Isolates a lot of winners.

cannot believe they let this go off at the price.
underbetting the horse because of the jockey perhaps.silly boys.

changing the subject a little,a few members have been doubting others ability to make the game pay and i would just like to say to those who doubt a full time living can be made from backing horses that you all know my weekly target and the bank i feel comfortable with.my week began on monday with a bet on kali des obeux which lost,i did not bet again until today because i am nurse maiding one of the kids with flu but today i backed empire and from just these two bets have made my target easily being +£900.at no time was the bank under any pressure even if i had backed another half dozen losers a decent priced winner or a couple of 2/1 shots would have put me back on course.
the above though does not include the tony fav method which i continue to use seperately and with another winner today is building up quite nicely this month already.

take things easy and have that all important bank behind you and you will not go far wrong.

Cannot fault you on your excellent summing up of the EMPIRE PARK race.
Superb!
Well done, and yes, you are right I would not have found it with the aid of speed figs.

I have said on board before that personally I find HCP HURDLES difficult races to solve as speed figs do not appear to be as effective in these as in non-hcp jumps and hcp chases,
Cheers
Swish

I havent reached the stage of making a living at this game yet (although i am determined to make it pay)
Do you stop each week when you reach your target or just keep going??

WP

Swish,

I had Empire Park top rated on my s/f, so I checked with RFU before I look a right plonker. They also have him top rated. Just for good measure he was dropping in class from the race the figures were achieved in. This is an excellent thread, and Max is to be congratulated on it. The only thing that has been said I don't agree with 100% is that s/f aren't important over the jumps. We can't all think the same, and I hope many of the experts continue to believe they don't hold good for NH. That way the edge will never be lost.

Nice thread, keep it going

Your right in what you say with regard to this thread,The problem is i don't think people realise how good it really is,You can isolate horses in minutes absolutely brilliant.

I have re-looked.
Yes it did have a decent fig if one went back a bit
Swish

i am having problems posting tonight so will paste up from word later.

swish

glad to see you posting and any input from you can only benefit this thread.i hope we can put any past differences behind us and this will be the start of a beautiful friendship.

mtoto

i am a little surprised to see you over here but the same comments apply and with both you and swish looking in i am sure you will be able to straighten me out if you think i am off base re speed figures.

[This message was edited by max on January 15, 2003 at 10:41 PM.]

Totally agree, any past differences are now dead and buried!

Would you kindly have a look at that Brimardon thread and offer any comments or opinions.
Of course, without knowing how many winners to losers there were what I have written proves nothing, Do you know anyone who knows win/loss ratio or any losers so I can look at them?

All the best
Swish

Empire Park - Worth waiting for.

I was beginning to wonder had the heart fallen out of this. For the last couple of weeks, in the main, the horses shortlisted were the first ones in the forecast. Some even odds on!. Good to see the bookie can still overlook one. Haven't seen any 10/1+ recently. As the year settles down do these big price mammas dissapear?.

Re - TOPSPEED Speedfigures -

See my post VDW - "questions" -

I said that the wheels seem to have fallen off the TOPSPEED figures recently !

Any thoughts ?

Or alternative (Reliable) Sources ?

Regards

Tc