It would be a good idea to have some kind of chat hour at the end of the week,So we could put our thoughts across maybe a sunday when there's no racing,I know max goes racing a lot and doesn't have time to get involved,But i'm sure an hour could be put to one side,This could be a very profitable thread if we pooled our ideas,No brain picking just decent points of view,What do you all think.

now...friday evening is probably the best time for me as i work usually up until 7.30 on weekends .but if it was say 9.00 p.m on a sunday then that would be ok..although i think everyone should be finalising their bets now for the weekend and this would be a good time to discuss any problems /questions before bets go on ??my personal bets tomorrow will be :

im going to try and corner the 12.50 race and get inearly by opposing the fav.mr mcgoldrick who has gone up 13 lbs from his last win in a c class so will need to find about a stone improvement to win here in my reckoning which isnt impossible but unlikely so:
october mist 5/1 2pts win
polish spirit 2pts win 8/1
bernardon 1pt saver 6/1

5pts outlay and a minimum of 2pt profit should mccoy spring a surprise .if the fav.goes down as expected then most likely one of the above 3 will win so with 75% probability its worth a shot as if polish spirit wins it will pay 13 pts profit stright away and then i put my feet up for the rest of the weekend. the most likely winner is october mist which would pay 7pts profit!!so get stuck in .back the fav or oppose ....which side are you on!!!!!?

max ...ill start a separate thread rather than clutter yours up with my own thoughts that way i can yapp to my hearts desire .keep up the good work i look forward to your next post.

Early indications say throw cation to the wind and have 5 points win on October mist,
It has won when fresh 2 or 3 times,now on 4th run since november i think there could have been a problem with it,Hoping it is well now,Jockey booking outstanding,going is okand maybe Mary reev looking for a profile winner with yard out of form,early thoughts but you never know,Rab

bb2k
thanks for all your work on here.

i had hoped to post 1 or 2 today but right now rushed off my feet.
and i mean literally rushed off my feet.got to take the kids on a run,with only 3 weeks left before the county cross country running season resumes i have left plenty of work to do.what with christmas (to many pies)we haven't done a decent piece of work in 3 weeks so i expect i will feel it over 3 miles in heavy ground.
as long as theres an oxygen tank on standby i will try to do one of the later races and post around 3.00.


investor
good idea about discussing races.
we could give the chat room a spin,whenever everbodys free.

nice to see you back max .i can appreciate the time consuming nature.ive got work in an hour but i'll just have time to watch my second race then im out until tonight.seems to be going great though and im sure their will be many winners to come.look forward to decent racing

analyze 76d/10 ling/78/78/79 turf 10/!!/!!
cut rate 76e/ 8 ling/76/62/79 turf 8/??/x!
kinsman 75e/ 8 ling/73/67/81 ling 8/??/x!
paragon 71f/12 ling/81/71/87 ling 10/!!/!!
perfidi 75d/ 9 wolv/75/79/75 swel 11/!!/!!
shirazi 68d/10 ling/81/77/81 turf 10/!!/!!
willoub 72e/10 ling/72/72/79 turf 7/!!/!x
my mait 74e/10 ling/72/72/74 ling 10/!!/x!
snuki 74e/ 8 ling/77/70/74 ling 8/!!/!!

from the top-ANALYZE best piece of recent form puts it high on the list only 1 point below its best with conditions to suit.passes all filters and a probable.CUT RATE has had a coulple of chances this season and with a 76 in a class e the best to show i doubt today will be any different.there are also doubts over the trip and the trainer is a no no.KINSMAN best of 81 at the track gives it a shout but 2f to far today and the trainer fails.PARAGON OF VIRTUE is interesting,if you take its recent form at face value winning a 12f class f and scoring 71 you would dismiss it thinking it had to much to do against a few of these but this time last year it was running very well at this course after winning a class d 65 it ran 2nd in a class c scoring a big 87.PERFIDIOUS best 75d but at wolverhampton did do a 76 one grade lower in an e class at this course finishing 2nd.SHIRAZI up 4 lbs for winning a class f and might be better judged on its 68 in a d class.WILLOUGHBYS BOY'S 72 in an e running off the same mark today would deserve a second look until you see its jock 0/36.MY MAITE scored its best over c/d and a recent 74 in an e puts it thereabouts but again its trainer lets it down.SNUKI needs to improve on what it has shown a best of 74 over 8f compared to a mark of 77 over 10f today puts into perspective the effort required.

lets try and narrow down the field-

taking the top 3 best lto pm analyze/shirazi/perfidious means we can discount a few,those with best ever pm's lower than the top 3's lto pms which means my maite and snuki have to go.
next on the basis of dalgleishs terrible course record i cross off willoughbys boy.
now cut rate and kinsman who will find this fast 10f to much round the home turn.

so left with 4 who pass all filters and their trainer jockeys ok.
analyze's pm's show it to be at the top of its game and has to be one of two that i will back.

paragaon of virtue allthough i am wary of last seasons form its 71f leaves it to much to do against in form rivals and i hope today is just another build up to better things next month,so i will discount this one.
perfidious runs today off 79 equaling its best and when you compare this one to the likely fav shirazi you would have to side with the former.shirazi winning off 77f in an f class leaves it some to find and a third spot today is i think the best it cam hope for.

so in conclusion

1st ANALYZE
2nd PERFIDIOUS
3RD SHIRAZI.

if any non runners then move them up a place and stick PARAGON OF VIRTUE in.

good luck.

max.

shirazi won with a bit in hand last time max and although analyze has a 6 lb pull this time for about 3l it leaves nothing between them and id have backed analyze and shirazi personally but im not going to.

I know you have your own way of selecting horses,And i feel you are one of the most important posters on this board,Just going back to trainer/ jockey stats,I wonder if it would be worth taking into consideration win and place percentages over going/distance/Course, the race you put figures up for using this kind of procedure would have steered me clear of Perfidious And would definateley have elevated Paragon of virtue,Just a thought.

No doubt spending some time with Mr Simpson you probably learnt a lot more than is portrayed in his book.Do you still consider his methods as good today.

Max

Came out of hibernation yesterday, first thing I did was to type "MAX" into the search box facility.(OK that`s enough arse kissing) It didn`t work so I`ve only just come across this thread. I`ve got a lot of reading to do but it looks brilliant. Well done, thanks and have a good year mate.

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allthough now the book does in parts seem dated i think the general theory is sound.
basically the message he was trying to get across was after a horse has shown acceleration at the business end of a race and goes on to win it next time out it is the course more than the weight carried which is important.
i do believe such an advantage still exists at tracks like chester and fontwell over the jumps.
it makes perfect sense that if the field is unable to go flat out throughout the race because of constant twists and turns that the class horse i.e the one with the most weight should in theory be able to quicken up past inferior rivals either from the front or coming from behind.
i have in the past expressed this view where pipe and mccoy runners are concerned and i think it goes a long way to describing their continued success.if i have allready told you this before then my mistake but this is my theory-

pipe runners invariably like to do it from the front so when running at courses that are tight and have a short run in they will win more often because when ap kicks around the last bend the others in behind have less time to catch up and put in a serious challenge.his runners are most of the time lumbered with a big weight more to do with trainer reputation and round tight tracks the "simpson" factor must come into play,true having a.p on its back does its chances no harm because he always lets them know they have been in a race,booting them into the fences and showing no fear.i would say the vast majority of the jocks do not show the same determination when faced with the big fences,richard johnson comes to mind allthough i suppose with his recent injuries thats understandable.i think johnson has lost the will to really give it his all at the moment for fear of another fall.
if by comparison you look at the big weighted pipe runner at big open gallopping tracks you can see the difference.a.p stills rides it the same but the other lightly weighted horses have more chance to pick him up over the last few fences and that 4/7 shot thats won a couple of weak novice hurdles doesnt look so tempting.

of course its only a small factor to consider and the difference in the tracks on the whole is not that great but highly weighted horse running say over a mile at newmarket is not going to have the same winning chance as the same horse running in the same race at sandown.

there is no doubt though that when he wrote the book in the early eighties a lot of logical thinking went into it and the points raised should always be a consideration when assessing a potential runner.

thanks for the kid words and glad to see you back posting.

Plenty to think about there,I totally agree with your point regarding R.Johnson iv'e noticed it a few times lately,He does seem to have lost his bottle a bit.

I`ve done all the reading now and much enjoyed it.
Apart from the enormously appreciated info Max has given us, there were two other points that stuck in my mind.

The first was Swishes magnanomous opening line when replying to Max`s no-nonesense letter, "A great letter" which it was too.

The second was Max`s cautious, once bitten twice shy reply to Cabbie "ask as much as you like" quickly followed by "within reason". You never forget if you`ve ever turned around to see an avalanche rushing towards you.

I laughed like a drain.

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top 5 are-

devious96b/7 s turf/98/79/98/??/!!
agilis 90b/7 ling/90/90/90/!!/x!
compton86e/7gs turf/89/86/86/?!/!!
hoh inv79b/7 ling/79/79/79/!?/?x
captain75c/6 swel/79/75/75/??/xx

from this you can see allthough devious boy's best rates it a danger it was achieved on ground with some cut and unproven over todays c/d i have to discount it.compton the likely fav scores badly with an 86 class e on turf but the trainer can be expected to have this one ready for its a/w debut and the colt will surely improve but i doubt enough to trouble a couple of these.its latest and best pm gives it plenty to do and not for me.the only reason captain hardy made the list was because of its 95 class c but that was over 6f at southwell,it did run well here from a wide draw but when you compare its form to the two that are left you have to discount it also.
hoh investor won over 6f at this course and also ran a good race from a bad draw lto,this 7f will suit and its 79 class b puts it bang into the picture the only worry is the trainer and jockey but thats not to say it will not place at a decent price.my idea of the winner is agilis whose 90 class b is the best piece of a/w form on offer.it is bang in form and was unlucky not to have won recently.this is a horse on the upgrade a fact supported by its 90 latest and 90 best pm's.you may be surprised i am so keen on this one after looking at poultons record with 3yo's at the course 1/23 but this young trainer has really hit form lately and after tomorrow i think we will see his s/r double from 5% upto the minimum 10 i usually like to see.this horse carried 9st 7lb around here lto and went down by a neck in a class d and anything like the 7/1 quoted in the post looks to good to miss.

hers my 1,2,3

1st agilis
2nd hoh investor
3rd captain hardy

any n/r move em up one and stick in the dark horse compton.

Max in the 3:15 I make Montecassino Abbey and Lygeton Lad ahead of the rest. What way do you interpret the climb from lto to todays PM.

Ie I make Lygeton
today 94,lto 71, best of last 3 91,top 91

Is it fesable to move up over 20 in one race even though he was there 2 races ago.

Monte has straight 91's all round and it's this consistancy that appeals. Is this the right thing to look for?.

i have had a very quick look at this and the explanation is lto lygetton lad running at wolverhampton.
the horse has shown all its best form over c/d and simply lto found it to slow at the track.
if you forget that run for that reason you can see improving consistant pm's over c/d.
it is not unusual to see an apparent downturn in pm's when something like this happens but when correctly placed in future the pm's soon get back on track as they were prior to the bad run.
i cannot believe someone as canny as gay kellaway was unaware of lygetons preference for lingfield and may turn out to be an attempt to let the heat cool off on an improving horse,she may well have a touch herself today.
if you run the horse over 7f it does need a decent pace and the race where it scored 71 just did not have that,i think is was run 1 1/2 sec slower than standard and it is much better judged on its 90 class d before that.
montecassino abbey also has pm's in the 90's and from what i have seen these two look clear of the rest and i suppose dutching would be the sensible option but i favour lygetton to come out on top today.


montecassinos pm of 91 lto was not that much of a surprise considering it had ran a 75 class c in may of last year at this course.it managed to sustain this next time out at goodwood scoring 85 class d.
if you look at its pm's before last time out's win you can see consistant scores in the 80's,most notably 80 class c in september at doncaster.so lto's pm of 91 class d only shows it to have held its level of form over the winter as a 80 class c and 91 class d are practically identical.

[This message was edited by max on January 11, 2003 at 10:16 AM.]

[This message was edited by max on January 11, 2003 at 10:17 AM.]

well done mikey.
well read.

Of course I picked Montecassino for the tipping challange!.