well ....i got my money back +1/4 point profit .making 5 1/4 points on the day.your 3 from 4 at the moment max and i hope youve had some money on too as you deserve a bit for your hard work.finding the thread extremely interesting as your method is almost identical to my own apart from slight deductions/additions i make .excellent work though will follow with interest.

Max,

Well done indeed, you're having a field day at Ayr. Just as well I said it was not a day for me.

Oldtimer

i adjusted the ratings on the 6th race to :

the rile 128
falchion 114
bay magic 116
up standing 106+

on that account i just had a few quid on at 8/11 and as bay magic was well out of sorts anyway and couldnt be realistically backed under any circumstances they have come in ..in exactly the right order.absolutely outstanding bet given the circumstances and only wish id taken note earlier as i may have got a better price .gambled 4 1/4 points at 8/11 which for arguments sake will pay 3 pts giving a total of about 8 for the day !!!!an excellent days racing and ive thoroughly enjoyed it.i hope youll let me work through some races with you max and if so i'll look forward to it in the future.well done .im not having a go in the last (too open) but i might have a go at rating it quickly:

very tough i get it:
native 95+
spoof 93+
tulach ard 93
brian james 95
tony the piler 88

with 2 improving types you would have to side with spoof whos 22 f soft ground run would appear to be the best form on offer .one to watch definately.

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 02, 2003 at 03:43 PM.]

well native legend the highest rated horse on adjusted figures wins .the step up obviously improved him which happens frequently in races of this nature.all said and done though max there are definately a few select races such as the riles where you can make a killing and it might be worth waiting for those few select races where the top rated is a minimum of 10 pts clear with conditions to suit whatever race those conditions are satisfied.i'll be keeping a close eye on your ratings in the coming weeks so keep up the good work !!!!!

just as a lesson for me i have rated the first at ludlow tomorrow and adjusted the ratings for increase in or,s and weight difference from best postmark.
i get:
better moment 88 gd/fm 19f
edd iff 83 soft 17f
brady boys 76 17f soft

would you agree that edd iff seems a very good bet given conditions and with mccoy in there may be a half decent price.

of more interest looks the later race at 2.40

inca trail 114+ 16 sft
musimaro 99+ 16 gd
annie byers 97+ 16 sft

this is a considerable step up in trip for all horses but inca trail seems to have almost a stone in hand over the field and it will be interesting to see how the bookies price up this race.

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 02, 2003 at 04:19 PM.]

Your the dogs b.......s you are,Youv'e got to excuse me i'm a little bit drunk,had a good day,Ihope you didv aswell,Be lucky.

In between races today,I went across to the local boozer,when i went to to school there were 3 brothers by the name of rhys evans, Good bunch of lads but one of them had a bit of a problem with cider,I got chatting with the middle brother today,And the younger off the 3 died on new years day age 27 of sclerosis of the liver,What a waste of life.

I'll concur with that thought...

I recieved the book this morning mate,Thanks very much.I hope 2003 brings you good fortune aswell

bit hit and miss yesterday and my trip to the races nearly a waste but thanks to mr mongon and caitlin managed to come home in front.
ayr though was good my two best winning nicely.

bb
i agree with you regarding ediff in the first but the trainer fails for me.

investor
glad you got it ok


onto today and rushing as usual so posting without the figures but what posted do pass all filters.

heres how i see it-

ludlow

12.35 better moment (doubts about getting trip???)
1.05 benson (if going not bottomless)royal baluga.
1.35 balkari
2.10 creative time and a saver on hombre
3.15 fait le jojo

out of those i will most likely only back in the 1.35 and 3.15.

wolverhampton

1.20 jamaican flight e/w
1.50 double brew and hagley park
2.55 lygetton lad with sir northerndancer and middleton grey 2nd/3rd
3.20 dr julien to beat little louis
4.00 indian steppes with a good chance of the tricast cressex katie/tigress
4.30 fiamma royal

best bet in the 2.55 and napped the 4.00

good luck.

ive done edd iff (3pts) +1 pt saver brady boys in the first as i cant believe mccoys will handle the ground anywhere near as well as previous runs.inca trail is a must at about 4/7 and i like the look of fait le jojo later too as he appears to have the beating of the fav.apart from lack of recent run which could be his undoing i'll wait on that one to see if any profit profit today before decided whether to have a go.good luck all

cant believe that.....3pts at 4/1 thats 12 pts profit!!!!with brady boys finishing 2nd so the form was exactly right!!!come on inca trail!!!!.
well thats a grand total of 19+8+12=39 pts in 3 days !!!!!!!!seem to be on the crest of a wave and long may it continue
i hope some of you steamed in too as it was a must have bet.cant see why you chose that mccoy horse max ???every bit of form was on gd/fm and on the 2 occasions it had run on softish it had flumped miserably ....and did again today.but watch out for this horse on better ground though!!

BB,

Well done BB, you're certainly on a roll.

Oldtimer

in the 1.35 lud????
i rated this just:

fiery 107 good
cheif 104 gd/sft
king 80
balkirk 75

chief cashier was the clear pick on adjusted ratings and has duly obliged .i admit ive only rated the first 4 in the betting but it just shows .if i had seen this earlier id have had a go but i was too late !!!!!was balkirk your selection in this race and if so why did you pick it max??(only i couldnt find balkiri?)

i will take a look at the prices in fait le jojos race to see if both can be backed realistically else i'll give it a miss because the 44 day layoff is a disadvantage in such a close race between the horses and its too close to call unless i can back both?you can actually get 11/10 and 2/1 at present but the stake needs to be high to get anything worthwhile back so i'm definately staying away.

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 03, 2003 at 02:02 PM.]

With regard E,iff i believe it was I owen who mentioned speed figures when combined with postmark,The above mentioned horse on it's last 3 P .M and S.Fs were,76/25 83/26 83/60,That tells me the horse has definately showed improvement and couldn't be ignored,The same goes for royal beluga (Well done Max ) mainly on it's postmark but it had also thrown in a decent s.f when winning lto,Where as Benson seemed to be going backwards.Which again could be reflected in it's recent p.ms and s.fs,The same would apply to Better moment.Obviously this won't happen all the time,But well worth keeping an eye on.

well inca trail did the business !!!and so did fait le jojo so the form has held rock solid today .(and about time too!!). missed the last one but i wasnt sure so better to stay out still 2/1 nice price.
one thing today highlited was the bookies making mccoy fav on that better horse !!!!that was an absolutely aweful fav.and the bookies were taking the mickey and i can but imagine the number of mug punters who saw him fav and put the money on.???makes me shudder!!just goes to show that the bookies are creaming the punters on mccoys runners.
my computer does all these calculations automatically (speed etc.)and my own system is almost identical to max's which is scary!!except i do the following:

if a horse has a best p.m rating of 123 i take note of its official rating that day and racing weight.lets say for instance it has an or rating of 83 and carried 10-10.
today it has an official rating of 87 (so the handicapper has made it 4lbs harder for the horse to win )and it carrys 10-13 today .i add the 4lb increase in weight (or) to the difference from last race weight (3lbs) and deduct this from the horses best p.m giving a rating ogf 116 and this is exactly what the horse should be capable of achieving under identical conditions with no improvement.

if the horse had an or of 87 today (from 83 last time) but only carried 10-6 then it would theoretically be able to reproduce that 123 under similar conditions today .

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 03, 2003 at 03:51 PM.]

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 03, 2003 at 03:57 PM.]

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 03, 2003 at 04:00 PM.]

Thanks for sharing that with us BB and your certainly on a roll.
Does this mean that if the distance/going today is different from the best pm then no bet, or do you look for the best pm under todays distance/going.

I couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo this week so keep it up.

personally i would find it hard to state a simple rule on the distance thing.i would if a horse had performed well over a shorter distance (preferably won well) then i would give it the benefit of the doubt and most likely back it unless there was a particulary strong distance horse in the race in which case i would back both or not at all.
inca trail today had finished 2nd in its previous race but lost to lord sam and the pair were 15 lengths ahead of the field .loed sam has since won and winning a 2m by 10 lengths + suggests that a step up in trip would be ideal so i would back even against a horse with fair distance form unless the adjusted ratings were identical in which case i would back both:
a typical example of which i must make you aware of happened today :
i added the 5lb claiming allowance to edd iffs race rating to make 83 but i forgot to add the 7lb allowance that the other was claiming which also would have put it on 83.i did back both anyway but this highlites the claiming point perfectly and they need to be taken into account also

if max would prefer i start a different thread to highlite the differences in ratings this makes to avoid cluttering up your thread i can do or else i'll just post up some on here if you prefer its up to you .either way it should help to highlite some decent bets over the coming weeks and im glad to help in any way possible ,im just sorry i didnt read your entire thread sooner !!!!!!as i didnt know what i missing!!!!

the main thing to remember though is that you should be looking for one bet only or 2 at the most should have a serious shout and be backable to make a profit either way.if this isnt possible or there are too many ifs then dont bother and wait for the next race.

[This message was edited by bookiebasher2000 on January 03, 2003 at 04:55 PM.]

Well done to both of you today,There's a lot of good stuff coming out on this thread,Don't dessert it chaps.

there is a risk that haydock may be called off because of frost overnight but if not i have these ratings:

12.20 hay:
river city 116+ soft 9/4
be my destiny 111+ heavy 9/2
korelo 101+ soft 13/8


12.50 hay
lawahik 160?? (old form 18 monthes ago)33/1
october mist 141 gd/sft/soft
bernadon 146(gd.fm), 125+ soft
polish flame 134+ gd/sft
the phair crier 130+ (3 miles)


1.20 hay
no need for alarm 154
sir storm 130
fireball mcnamara 124+


2.20 hay
the bajan bandit 154+ gd/sft
jungle jinks 147(3 miles)
keen leader 145+ soft
man murphy 141+ soft


obvious bet of the day according to that is NO NEED FOR ALARM who is 24lbs ahead of this field and can win without drawing breath as long as previous fall hasnt harmed him.at about 4/9 he will be short but as close to cert as you get.

in the 12.50 lawahiks old form would make him a cert at 33/1!!!but his comeback run was dire and as he didnt even show a glimmer cannot come into calcs.october mist is effective on soft and at 5/1 makes a lot of appeal .bernandon would be top rated on gd/fm but doesnt appear anywhere near as effective on softer ground so is opposed even with the great mccoy on board.the phair crier trainer seems to think his horse needs the full 3miles to get the best from the horse so the biggest danger is polish flame who might prefer slightly better ground but should go well and the fav mr mcgoldrick has to carry lumps more weight this time and will find it much tougher.
at 5/1 and 8/1 respectively thuis seems like a pot of gold waiting to be plundered .you cannot fully rule out the mccoy horse springing a flike surprise but i'll be shopping around for the early prices.

the bajan bandit seems to one to be on in the later race but its very tight and the 6/4 is stingy so doesnt make too much appeal even though keen leaders 44 day absence strengthens the selections [possibilitys.